I never took a covid vaccine, or took seriously crypto, NFT's, virtual real estate, eSports, Roaring Kitty or Metaverse.
I am a proud non-consensus thinking farm-girl who uses common sense with traditional finance.
Tokenization, Agentic AI & Ro'bots are the future for Ready-Player-One types. I'm not one of those.
I also don't drink the Kool-Aid of data centers in space, Mars or that capex buildout in compute won't be used against us (surveillance state).
Trump has shown who he is & how dangerous his friends, policies & grift are to US liberties & long-lasting prosperity. It is greed & Godlessness at the core.
None of this is tradable advice, just a reminder that the Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds is a recurring theme in history where folks- even the highest IQ ones - lose their personal identity, reason & critical judgment to be part of a pack, a collective emotion.
I see it everywhere, sadly.
Be careful is all I'm saying.
This isn't as much a market warning as one to do the work to think for yourself & choose wisely.
Grit & Integrity Matter.
God bless & have a great weekend!
If you make it to 30 and you aren’t cynical about the way the world works, you are a sheep.
If you are 40 are can retain your optimism in the face of all that, you are a champ.
I’d like to imagine that once you’re 75 and you can stare pessimism & death in the face & laugh, you are an absolute effing warrior.
We should all aspire to that.
Austin native.. just spent 3 days in LA.
1. Anywhere you want go to in Austin - 15 minutes away. Spent 45 driving from Venice to downtown.
2. No people pissing on the street / crackheads walking around
3. People don't care you who are / know. Irrelevant
Those 3 are enough for me
Can anyone actually make a strong case for Austin over LA that does not involve state income tax? None of the arguments I have heard so far are compelling.
Not seeing many people talk about this, but maybe we should be.
Japanese 10yr yields are now sitting at multi-decade highs around 2.42% (chart attached).
Now I know what you are thinking… “yields are rising everywhere and 2.42% is alot lower then US yields 4.35%?” Japan is different. For decades Japan has been the anchor of global yields. Zero rates, yield curve control, endless liquidity. If you wanted cheap funding, you went to Japan. That regime changed a while back but the speed of the adjustment is what is concerning. This is not a spike. This is a clear trend. Higher highs. Higher lows. Week after week.
Why does this matter? Because Japanese capital has been recycled globally for years. US Treasuries, European bonds, EM carry trades. All funded out of Japan. If domestic yields in Japan are now 2.4%, you have to ask yourself, does this speed up diversification away from King Dollar.
This is how global liquidity quietly tightens. No headlines. No panic. Just a slow grind higher in yields that eventually forces repositioning.
We all focus on the Fed. We all focus on US yields.
But this one is creeping up in the background. Largely unnoticed. For now.
#JPY
I turned 40 this year. These are the things I wish I had known at 20.
Starting with...
1. Develop the ability to add and delete habits. I’ve observed that recovering addicts can have an edge on normal people--they have come to the stark realization that change is existential. Change is the price of survival for all of us. (For me, deleting is easier than adding. You might be different.)
The macro liquidity environment is going to become increasingly difficult to navigate as interest rates push higher
I am going to lay out the macro regime and positioning in equities and Bitcoin for WHERE we are going
Let's dig in 🧵👇