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@BigJohn043 Also worked in both IB and consulting, albeit at A-list IB and B-list consulting. Have worked extensively with MBB and alums - no bueno. Your IB experience must have been quite a bit different from mine.

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@The_Rad_Dawg @BigJohn043 100% this ☝🏼

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@JoshYoung Which daycare? Flag it to DOJ and relevant state authorities. This isn't California and it's not 2024.

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@bryan_johnson Can you just do an dispassionate analysis of what his style of corrosive negativity does to human health and longevity? I'm sure you've got data, studies and a corrective protocol...

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@Energy_Tidbits The spread is narrower than that in practice as the terminals generally operate above nameplate. Feedgas loss for USGC liquefaction is usually modeled more like ~7%. Lower in the Arctic.

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@crudechronicle It's an univestable sector in public markets. There are quality private operators - almost always more disciplined from a commercial and execution perspective. Not many clear angles to invest in them, although maybe more alongside/with them.

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@lyndonbajohnson Maybe in the 90s. Engagement bait to say that it's true now.

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@edcumming Link to this document?

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@CorneliaLake What's your background with E&C names? It's a garbage sector for a reason - don't be fooled by the backlog number.

Will take a look at the company your note and the company but I'm suspicious...

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@onechancefreedm How do you see Japan's planned $550 bn investment in US capital projects (nuclear, data centers) impacting this dynamic?

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@Brad_Setser @darioperkins Where do you see the recently announced ~$550 bn in US projects fitting into this?

Presumably they will borrow in Japan, possibly using USD FX reserves, to make USD investment, with returns in USD over ~2-3 decades.

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@musharbash_b Interesting idea but your financial analysis is not appropriate or suggestive of what you think it is. The fertilizer cos you mentioned are very capital intensive - metrics like ROCE, ROIC and ROE tell a more informative story.

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It's capital cost at arbitrage. Deeply contracted, producing LNG infrastructure assets with predominantly fixed liquefaction fees can transact at 12x-14x EBITDA. On the other hand, trading multiples for Shell & Mitsubishi (mostly E&P, trading & downstream) are more like half that.

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@TraderNorway The notes were issued at the Plaquemines level to refinance debt at the Plaquemines level. Does not cleanly reflect economics at the $VG parent level, which receives a narrow residual cash flow from contracted volumes and as a result has a very different credit/equity profile.

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@Michael42414180 @VGDeepDive Wrong. $VG ParentCo 1yr CDS at ~170bps and 10yr >500bps implies a serious perception problem in credit markets.

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@Ethan_0502 @tylermacro10 You should model it. I'm not as bearish on $VG as others, but the risks are real.

There's a good BofA credit research initiating coverage report from last month that provides effectively all the inputs to model VG w/ various sensitivities/scenarios.

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@Ethan_0502 @tylermacro10 The problem is that, in a severe stress scenario, distributions derived from contracted volumes at CP1, PL, CP2 to the $VG parent may not be sufficient to cover debt service and corporate costs. Especially if litigation claims are layered on top, and growth capex continues.

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@ShaleTier7 @ALikhodedov Which specific facilities do you see curtailing capacity? Any SPA holders rejecting cargos?

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So was I. Trying to help you here. Type this into Grok:

"Detail the complete equity transaction history of the 407 ETR concession. Include: buyer, seller, % transacted, purchase price, implied EV, implied EV/EBITDA. Also include Ferrovial ownership % before/after each transaction."