A Yale professor published a book saying the stock market was about to crash. It came out in March 2000, the same month the Nasdaq peaked. Then he did it again in 2005, about housing.
Robert Shiller did not do it with a crystal ball. He did it with one ratio. Price divided by ten years of average earnings. In late 1999 that number hit 44, the highest ever recorded, higher than 1929.
That is the entire tool. It says nothing about next month, it has never told anyone when to sell, and it only answers one question: how much are you paying per dollar of real profit. Apparently too boring to look up.
He teaches the course that explains all of it, free from Yale since 2008, and lecture 1 is not about picking anything. His argument is that finance is not a way to make money, it is a technology for managing risk, same as insurance or a mortgage.
Which is the part everyone skips. People show up for the guy who called two bubbles and then ask him what he thinks about the market this week.
So name it. What is the most overpriced asset right now, and what number are you using to say that? The second half is where most people go quiet.