The magnitude of what just happened may take some time to sink in.
This is the first time Iran has struck Israel after Israel struck another country's territory (that is, not Iran).
This means that the battle lines have been moved.
Iran's deterrence had already been restored in the sense that Israel knew that any strike on it would be responded to.
But now, Iran has proven that it will also respond to Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
This is the first time in decades that a regional power has the means, capacity, and willingness to put hard power against Israeli military maneuvers or aggression against a third party.
Read full analysis here: https://t.co/CPawJ4TYdr
The thing to understand about Germany's establishment is that it's not so different from the American one: self-absorbed, entitled and cartoonishly vengeful when thwarted: after losing the vote for a UN SC seat, there are threats to stop paying UN dues.
Their absence of self-awareness is a serious pathology. They just killed 3k civilians (really, civilians) and are complaining that their invading soldiers are facing some risks WHILE INVADING.
Trump now says he’s not sending Witkoff and Kushner to Pakistan after FM Araghchi leaves. This has happened repeatedly: Trump claims the Iranians are begging for talks, Iran says it is false. The U.S. says Iran is lying and then it becomes clear Iran meant what it said.
WSJ and the Economist first ran stories saying Iran’s leadership is divided. trump used this theory to justify his U-turn yesterday. Soon after WSJ had a source-based story on how trump decided to put off his strikes because of divisions in Iran. And now, Axios has a similar story.
This level of coordination is possible only in the ‘state media’.
Pakistan's efforts at mediation are commendable. but here's my warning: keep it facilitative; don't become a directive mediator. understand Zartman's and Tuoval's "mediation dilemma". if you push the issue, Iran might think you are trying to control the agenda on US' behalf>
The situation as it stands at 1930 PST
1. Formal response from Iranian side about confirmation of delegation to attend Islamabad Peace Talks is still awaited.
2. Pakistan as the mediator is in constant touch with Iranians and pursuing the path of diplomacy and dialogue.
3. Ceasefire ends at 4:50 am PST, 22 April. Decision from Iran to attend the talks before the end of two weeks ceasefire is critical.
4. Pakistan has made sincere efforts to convince the Iranian leadership to participate in the second round of talks and these efforts continue.
This is not routine diplomatic boilerplate. I would see it as deliberate signalling placing the onus on Tehran while avoiding any blame toward Washington. Moreover, it keeps the diplomatic channel open without conceding failure.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: The opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz does not happen in cyberspace; Iran is the one who determines this.
pak liberal/nats are a weird bunch. this silly belief is shared only by some hardliners in the gulf, obviously israel and the americans neocons. the rest know the costs of a "total war"
The US very much can afford a total war. Idk why people are deluding themselves.
Only reason these talks even happened is because of Trump’s aversion to putting boots on the ground.