@_Adrian@GrafYves@TNorth Yeah I agree. I meant that it’s good that they are able to finance buybacks and can make adjustments to the balance sheet in distressed times. But I agree that the discount on the price was a signal of something much more complex than just $ASST competition or lack of buybacks.
@ListerRod@PhilSmith26 I agree with that. That’s how markets should work though. This is what we lost when the central banks moved towards a policy of permanent QE through swap lines. Now governments have to compete for the cash.
Bond markets look reasonably orderly. They’re pricing term premium and geopolitical risk while the map gets redrawn. That’s a real signal.
A 5-handle on the 10-year is not a default price. It closed Friday at 5.28%. Five-year US CDS is about 37bp. That’s the market charging for duration and politics, not refusing to own the paper.
If the claim is that bonds eventually force the US and the G7 to slow the growth of the welfare state so the debt stock stops compounding, I’m with you. Default is a different claim, and it’s absurd. The dollar is still the reserve currency. IMF reserves were 57% dollars in Q2. Slow erosion is not a change of regime.
Well, I don’t think bond markets care about his past career. I think his industrial agenda will likely bring prosperity to Canada more than Europe. Because where else are our resources going to go? Europe doesn’t have the industry to be a reliable customer. Canadian bonds are gaining relative to EU, because of geography. The market knows that Elbows up is a phase. Canada will be prosperous. Because we’re neighbors with the USA. Pay attention to the ai spend. It’s also affecting bond markets.