Sal

[Tomas Pueyo @tomaspueyo]

Maps twist our perception of the world
Here are 20 to rethink it:

1. Countries closer to the equator (~poorer) seem smaller than they are

(map by @neilrkaye)

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

So many on FinTwit are expecting (hoping) for a 2008 redux. Here is why it can't happen...

In 2008 asset prices had fallen so far that the world was facing a collateral spiral. Then QE came and it took 6 months for collateral prices to stabilize and rise enough for debts to be manageable.

But since then, QE has worked PERFECTLY. You debase the currency via QE and prices rise INSTANTLY before it's too late and before collateral is called at a systemic level (ie before It's too low to offset the debts system-wide.). It is still called on at a local level.

This is what is going on now as the Fed balance sheet rises quickly in a financial crisis - the collateral prices begin to rise... and thus equities and bonds are rising commensurately (as is crypto and gold)

Yes, QE IS debasement. It doesn't drive liquidity into assets, or volumes would rise, but they don't. It's an adjustment in prices to account for the weaker purchasing power vs scarce assets.

Wages and earnings don't rise in QE as they are variable and not fixed, so P/E's rise, and also people can't afford houses, or can afford less per dollar of investment in all assets from equities, to housing from gold to crypto.

I have spent the last 2 years proving this in GMI (and to a certain extent RV Pro Macro). I know this to be true.

So, right now, all they need to do is print and collateral prices rise (bond prices (yields fall), equities, crypto, gold, etc). If the collateral is worth more, then the debt is not called at a system-wide level, unlike 2008.. Simple.

Don't believe me in a short tweet? I understand, but let me show you that 97% of all price movements in the S&P are due to G5 central bank balance sheets. See chart below.

Don't understand why P/E's keep rising? It's this Don't understand why equities are rallying? It's this. Don't understand why crypto is rising. It's this.

If you think inflation is the issue, I don't agree. But that's a tweet for another day.

QE is not inflationary. Fiscal policy IS, but it's short-lived. Japan has proven this time and time and time and time again. The trend rate of inflation is driven by demographics along with debt load (which in turn if a function of demographics) and that BIS paper on why it's inflationary is very wrong in my view IMHO (no space here to discuss how wrong that paper is!).

Here is the chart of the S&P vs the G5 balance sheets. Explain this away...and its not money going into equities from too much liquidity seeping into the system allowing people to buy. You can not statistically prove that.

It is debasement.

Same as Venezuela or Iran, just more subtle and slower and no, the US can not default and yes, @SantiagoAuFund is right, it causes the dollar to rise.... anyway.

More in time on all this or just short cut it and get Global Macro Investor (sorry, its not for everyone!) or at least watch my video on this on Real Vision (but its just the start).

TL:DR - Balance sheet up = risk assets up = crypto and tech outperforming. Buy Mortimer, buy!

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

The 2-year yield has plunged more than 100 bps in a week and a half.

These kinds of stories typically follow.

---

(Bloomberg) -- Veteran macro trader Adam Levinson is shutting down his hedge fund after being hit by losses amid ongoing bond market volatility.

Levinson’s Graticule Asia macro hedge fund has plunged more than 25% this year, mostly during the days after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

His bets tied to front-end rates imploded and erased years of gains, the people said, asking not to be identified because the details are private.

---

There will be many more of these kinds of stories in the days/weeks ahead.

The chart will help explain why.

The second-highest bond market volatility reading in the last 30+ years (only the week of the TARP bailout was higher) means a lot of bond players are in a "very bad place."

And no, this is not zero-sum. The number of winners from the plunge in rate and big volatility will be much smaller than the number of losers.

[Sam Altman @sama]

experience and competence are not the same thing, and it’s wild how much many industries value the first over the second.

[Will Manidis @WillManidis]

the most disturbing trend is the amount of people treating life like an index fund.

never take big risks, never build a family, build a holding company other people run, don't make decisions, don't work hard on one thing, preserve optionality, never live just hedge until you die

[Ali Abdaal @AliAbdaal]

In 5 years of YouTube, the most common question I still get from my viewers is “how are you so productive?”

So here’s a thread of 15 actionable tips that help me do more of the things that matter to me, without burning out. 🧵

[Mashable @mashable]

Would you accept a delivery from a robot dog?

[Dalai Lama @DalaiLama]

Love can be defined as a wish that others be happy; compassion is the wish that they be free from suffering. If you cultivate love and compassion within yourself, it will ensure happiness, good health and peace of mind.

[Ho Nam @honam]

The opposite of “success begets success” can be true. Bet on underdogs. “Fortune favors those who do not take successes at face value and appreciate that more is not often better, but less is often more.” https://t.co/NGvc31emXG

[Ram Parameswaran @_ram_]

We may never see this level of skill and greatness in our lives.

[David Morris @wdmorrisjr]

Parents have to choose their battles.

8 fights worth picking with your kids:

[Sal @parlumiere]

@DrRandyMcDougal @mugwumppy

[Adam Grant @AdamMGrant]

A key skill of emotional intelligence is being slow to take offense and quick to take feedback.

People are rarely criticizing you. They're critiquing a snapshot of your words or actions.

They won't see the full you. You can still learn from their reactions to that image of you.

[Sal @parlumiere]

@MercedesAMGF1 At least Lewis stayed on podium and not like Max who walked away last weekend.

[Sal @parlumiere]

@MercedesAMGF1 There is nothing for max to say because Mercedes and Lewis was the fastest car all the way. They had no speeeeeed.

[Sal @parlumiere]

@MercedesAMGF1 My heart is in overdrive

[Sal @parlumiere]

@MercedesAMGF1 Can they finish the race on extended safety car period

[Sal @parlumiere]

@MercedesAMGF1 A crash!!!

[Sal @parlumiere]

@MercedesAMGF1 Heart stopping 8 laps