William O’Neil (1933–2023) explains how the general market creates major tops long before most investors realize what’s happening.
In this classic lesson, O’Neil analyzes more than 10 leading stocks simultaneously, showing how market leaders often begin breaking down before the broader market peaks.
Featured names include:
$NASDAQ
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Express Scripts
Synaptics ($SYNA)
One of the greatest investing lessons you’ll ever study:
Don’t just watch the indexes.
Watch the leaders.
When leading stocks start cracking, the market top may already be forming.
A timeless masterclass from the founder of CAN SLIM and one of the greatest growth investors of all time. 👇📈
Mark Minervini is overrated.
His strategies don't work anymore.
That's what his critics love to say.
But I spent a full year inside his Private Access program in 2024 and 25.
It quietly changed how I trade.
Here's the one pattern his whole method is built on 👇
Biggest generational buying opportunity for $SPY is in June.
When $SPY crashes 10%-20% buy these:
1. $NOW ~$105 | Buy zone: $80–$85
Near 52-week lows. Agentic AI platform still printing revenue. Market overreacted to selloff.
2. $BE ~$254 | Buy zone: $160–$180
$2.6B Nebius fuel cell deal validates the thesis. AI power demand is just starting.
3. $SNDK ~$1,645 | Buy zone: $1,100–$1,200
Flash memory demand exploding as AI storage cycle accelerates hard.
4. $NVDA ~$205 | Buy zone: $165–$180
Off the highs but AI capex cycle just entered year three. Pullback is the gift.
5. $QCOM ~$204 | Buy zone: $180–$190
Jensen just publicly endorsed $QCOM. ByteDance ASIC deal massively underappreciated catalyst.
6. $ORCL ~$202 | Buy zone: $160–$170
Earnings tonight. Cloud RPO backlog growing 80%+. Bears get destroyed after this print.
7. $INTC ~$106 | Buy zone: $80–$90
Google sourcing 3M chips in 2028. Turnaround trade with explosive upside from here.
8. $GOOG ~$360 | Buy zone: $300–$320
AI Search monetization + cloud + Waymo. Most undervalued hyperscaler on the board.
9. $MSFT ~$400 | Buy zone: $360–$370
Copilot enterprise rollout just hit NHS 505K employees. Azure AI is compounding daily.
10. $META ~$586 | Buy zone: $520–$530
$145B capex plan + Llama dominance = AI moat nobody's pricing in correctly right now.
11. $AAOI ~$163 | Buy zone: $100–$120
Optical interconnects are the AI bottleneck. AAOI is the pick-and-shovel inside the wall.
12. $LITE ~$807 | Buy zone: $600–$700
Northland just raised PT to $1,200. Photonics supercycle is real and Lumentum owns it.
13. $PLTR ~$132 | Buy zone: $120–$125
85% YoY revenue growth. US gov + enterprise flywheel locked in. Dip buyers always win.
14. $MRVL ~$264 | Buy zone: $180–$200
Jensen called it the next trillion-dollar company. S&P 500 inclusion = forced buying incoming.
15. $AMD ~$461 | Buy zone: $360–$380
MI300X shipments accelerating. Hyperscaler diversification away from NVDA benefits AMD most.
16. $IREN ~$53 | Buy zone: $30–$35
Nvidia took a 30M share option at $70. That's a floor signal from the most credible source.
17. $NBIS ~$214 | Buy zone: $160–$170
Hyper-growth AI cloud. $1.7B UK expansion. BofA just raised PT to $280. Too cheap here.
♻️ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll DM you my top 3 for 10x-20x we can buy later this month.
Went back and studied the Nasdaq parabolic advance following the November 1999 breakout. Wanted to see what the first real pullback looked like after the big down move in markets on Friday.
Nasdaq went vertical for 10 weeks, reaching nearly 10x ATR's above the 50SMA before its first close below the 20EMA, which came after a sharp 12% pullback in two sessions.
$SOXX just fell -12% in two days after hitting just over 10x ATR multiples above the 50SMA on Wednesday... First close below the 20EMA on Friday.
Wanted to compare the two as $SOXX $SMH and semiconductor stocks share many striking similarities with the Nasdaq and internet leaders of the 90's.
Also worth noting that many of the leaders during the first parabolic advance on the Nasdaq in 1999 did NOT make new highs again, even though the index grinded another 30% higher.
If using as precedent it's likely we saw some capitulation on Friday and could find a low next week. Would expect wide ranges, volatility, and tougher trading conditions. Just for studying and entertainment purposes.
🏆 BASTION DEEP VALUE AWARDS
🇺🇸 USA · Top 25 by market cap
23 of the 25 biggest US companies score below 50 on value. Two are actually cheap. Handing out awards across 6 categories 👇
1️⃣ Forward P/E (cheapest on next-year earnings)
Winners:
🥇 💾 Micron 11x $MU
🥈 🛢️ Exxon 12x $XOM
🥉 🏦 JPMorgan 14x $JPM
Outsiders:
🚗 Tesla 202x $TSLA
🔷 Intel 101x $INTC
🖥️ AMD 58x $AMD
2️⃣ P/E 2028 (cheapest on earnings 3 years out)
Winners:
🥇 🏦 JPMorgan 12x $JPM
🥈 💾 Micron 13x $MU
🥉 📱 Meta 14x $META
Outsiders:
🚗 Tesla 116x $TSLA
🔷 Intel 45x $INTC
🏬 Costco 38x $COST
3️⃣ EV/EBITDA (cheapest on enterprise value)
Winners:
🥇 🎩 Berkshire 6x $BRK.A 🥈
🛢️ Exxon 7x $XOM 🥉
📱 Meta 10x $META
Outsiders:
🚗 Tesla 99x $TSLA
🖥️ AMD 64x $AMD
⚙️ Lam Research 46x $LRCX
4️⃣ Free Cash Flow Yield (most cash per share)
Winners:
🥇 💊 J&J 3.3% $JNJ
🥈 📱 Meta 3.2% $META
🥉 🛢️ Exxon 3.0% $XOM
Outsiders:
🗄️ Oracle −3.5% $ORCL
🔷 Intel −0.6% $INTC
📦 Amazon −0.1% $AMZN
5️⃣ Dividend Yield (most generous to shareholders)
Winners:
🥇 🛢️ Exxon 2.8% $XOM
🥈 💊 J&J 2.4% $JNJ
🥉 🏦 JPMorgan 2.0% $JPM
🏅 TOP AWARD: Bastion Deep Value Score
Winners (most undervalued):
🥇 🏦 JPMorgan 68 $JPM
🥈 🛢️ Exxon 65 $XOM
🥉 📱 Meta 48 $META
Outsiders (most expensive):
🔷 Intel 10 $INTC
🚗 Tesla 11 $TSLA
🖥️ AMD 13 $AMD
How the Bastion Deep Value Score works
Score from 0 to 100. We rank each stock against the entire global market across every value metric: Forward P/E, P/E 2028, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, FCF Yield, Dividend Yield, P/BV. Then we combine these into a single composite rating and convert it into a percentile. A score of 100 means the stock lands in the top 1% globally on value, 90 means top 10%, and so on down the scale.
🚨 Donald Trump just revealed which stocks he’s buying in 2026
FULL LIST:
VOO
IWB
NOW
NVDA
RSP
ADBE
WDAY
ORCL
MSFT
AVGO
SNPS
CDW
PG
CDNS
TT
TXN
FIS
MSI
ETN
XLI
TDG
AMZN
JBL
COST
AXON
COMT
KRUS
DELL
BA
UBER
IEMG
AAPL
XLK
NVR
SMCI
GOVT
ICE
KLAC
FFIV
AVB
XEL
ARES
WM
EFA
CRM
PNC
DVA
GOOGL
NWSA
WST
HD
CVNA
IEX
NFLX
VTI
TOMORROW, every fund over $100M must legally disclose their Q1 2026 trades to the SEC
@Biotech2k1@aedwards02@jrkelly Episode 18- Put Selling w/ @mellowrk_lion
Informative episode if you are looking for an extra tool in your investing arsenal!
https://t.co/vQRCm54N8z
Leopold Aschenbrenner will disclose his new trades in exactly ONE WEEK.
Here are his past trades:
SNDK: Entered the bulk of his position in Q4 2025 at roughly $230 per share, now ~$1494. Up ~550% on his position.
BE: Entered at ~$86.89 (end of 2024), now ~$253. Up ~190% on his position.
INTC: Entered call options in Q1 2025 at ~$19 per share, now ~$117+. Up ~510% on his position.
LITE: Entered around $40 in 2024-2025, now ~$885+. Up ~2000% on his position.
COHR: Entered around $60, now ~$318. Up ~425% on his position.
At only 25 years old, he has outperformed Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and every tier 1 investor.
When he discloses his new trades, we will share them here.
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@TheStockDon Where get 9.65 from? Rejected within a penny of that n i dont see any kind of prev support or resistance there or any daily MA? Excellent call.
$AAPL Conference Call Summary: Tim Apple is out after 89 earnings calls. John Apple is in. We have a great roadmap, so you won’t miss Tim. John has been with us for 25 years and knows the roadmap well. We had March quarter records and grew double digits in every geographic segment, including APAC. We’ve got our strongest iPhone lineup ever, and it was even taken into space for stunning photos of Earth from around the moon. Customer satisfaction for iPhone 17 is an unheard of 99%. That’s why iPhone gained market share. We also have our strongest Mac lineup, and it took market share during the quarter. This is despite supply constraints for both iPhone and Mac. If you are going to run AI on the edge, you should probably have a Mac. Some people still like our iPad, too, and we’ve got wearables. Services grew double-digits in both developed and emerging markets, and set new all-time revenue records across most of the Services categories. We continue to move more manufacturing into the U.S. to make @POTUS happy. We are applying for tariff refunds and will invest all that money in U.S. innovation and manufacturing. We are guiding to margins above estimates for the June quarter, but this includes a significant increase in memory prices. We aren’t giving color beyond June, but we expect memory prices to continue to go higher, and we’ll have to look at our options then. We still see supply constraints for the Mac in June, but it's not due to memory. It is because of the availability of the advanced nodes. We just simply underestimated demand, and it takes time to get production up. Mac Neo is part of this, and we are hearing of more school districts, beyond Kansas City, completely switching away from Chromebooks to be a completely Apple environment.
https://t.co/up2fEDB7Es
I know it isnt applicable right now. But just looking through some things. $INTC
You need to pound this pattern into your brain. And we all can get better at blocking out the noise. It was a noisy period here. In the chat, in your head, on twitter, in the news. Everywhere.
Now, this can fail too can pop into the declining moving averages and roll over.
But when you get an undercut like that and gap up to negate the entire candle and back within the base, with a market that potentially bottomed due to it being very stretched to the downside, breadth beaten to shit, etc, man the moves can be fast and fast and fast.
You do not have proof of a trade following through or momentum. But you have a LINE IN THE SAND. And this is where I differ from the Quallamaggie and pure momentum breakout traders.
An area to risk against, line in the sand, combined with the right stock is often more important than classic tightness and higher low momentum breakouts. And they are actually easier, more frequent, and better RR. Yes, they will fail a few times usually as the market decides when its ready and yes it will be mentally hard as the market wont look or feel ready.
But these buys show up time and time again at the end of corrections.
I can go through dozens of historical examples off the top of my head tomorrow. And how difficult it was for me to get involved later on because of that.-Alerts
PS. This is what I mean when I preach "Go through the charts of winners.
This isn't applicable now. But it is engrained, once again, in my head. And that will pay me big time, someday on some stock in the future. After seeing it, studying it, experiencing it, missing it, mistrading it, mismanaging it, hitting it but selling early, hitting it but undersized or oversized.
Then hitting it just right where it all comes together. The progression of growth as a trader and knowing what is next without knowing.
The scariest thing about the surge in semis is that people have totally lost touch with what's actually investable.
It's already the most cyclical of cyclical industries, so even the highest quality, with decades of proven endurance, will have ugly boom-busts in their charts. Far uglier than most industries.
The difference though with say, $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $MPWR, $ASML is that even with the boom-busts, the charts are up and to the right over the cycles.
Same cannot really be said about most of the chip stocks you see X talking about lately, for those names which have been around long term.
For many (most?) you would have lagged the S&P owning them last 10 to 25+ years.
Take $AEHR as example. Super small-cap. Compare their long term chart to $TER. Both very boom-bust but one much worse than other, which is why - if you're going to buy Aehr Test - you need to get it super cheap. Its long term CAGR only calculates out favorably at present because of the insane vertical chart.
And no, their full-wafer + high-power burn-in is not enough of a selling point. Would rather stick with Teradyne and Advantest as proven buy and hold names, because when these all go down, they should go down less.
Even at last April's tariff lows, I preferred TER and broader peers for testing and metrology like KLAC, $ONTO, and Tokyo Electron. Onto was about as low as I would go in terms of quality and small size.
It's also not that I'm against small cap. However, $CAMT and $NVMI higher quality, which I did buy. Though I guess their market caps are more mid-cap now.
To be clear it's not that I dislike $AEHR but rather, the risk reward of buying here. You need to be thinking of downside risks, first. Not potential upside.
I prefer not to own stocks where, the largest catalyst for them, is X subs pumping them hard.
If my stocks happen to have that happen later, fine. Though, I want nothing to do with initiating a position during that chase.
With the exception of some analog and a few others, pretty much all chips are up hundreds of percent in 12 months.
First screenshot is chips stock sorted by lowest market value, first. Note that lowest $IONQ, $INFQ, $XNDU, $P all from past few weeks so lower percentages. Some also show lower percent gains due to recent adds, averaging them up.
Second screenshot is opposite, from highest to lowest market value, with obvious emphasis towards quality. Fab 5 are my favorite but also some $NVDA, etc.
$SNPS and $CDNS are about the only high quality still reasonably priced, because of their software categorization.
As you know I added 400 $NVDA at 160s a few weeks ago, but would not buy now. That doesn't mean it's not going to $240 or $260. I'm not thinking of that. I'm thinking, what are odds it goes to $180?
The other ~1/3rd of stocks in the middle are not shown, but weightings in-between. Everything way too green.
Also I have some international chip stocks like $BESVF, $TOELF, and $LSRCF which I couldn't move to Robinhood but they are up hundreds of percent in just one year, too. I really like Tokyo Electron. Plus have one private company.
I am intentionally writing this post on a big red day for this sector because on green day, no one wants to hear the truth.
The time to buy chip stocks is when it seems like the cycle is over, or may be approaching such point earlier than expected. Not when it seems like it has a long runway ahead and there's nothing that can stop it.
You've been warned.