Pedro

oil demand… it can’t be bargained with, it can’t be reasoned with, it doesn’t feel pity or remorse

[Pedro @Pedro100000010]

@craigvandamme @timber001 @swarmofbeesband

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!

[Pedro @Pedro100000010]

@RazorOil

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

Thanks @tomkeene. So why did Rockefeller stop vertically integrating at the gas pump and never build the car? I knew you would come back on this...

Rockefeller followed one rule: never put a dollar where you're a price-taker. Only own the bottleneck where you set the price. It's the same rule the hyperscalers are breaking.

He stopped integrating beyond the pump, as owning Detroit would have meant pouring capital into a competitive, capital-intensive, price-taking manufacturing business. Gasoline and cars are complements, not substitutes, and you want your complement industry fragmented and competitive. Cheap, abundant cars from Ford and GM meant more fuel sold at higher margin.

The artificial muscle (AM) revolution was ultimately about oil, not the cars planes and trucks that did the heavy lifting. Decades ago, Buffet called them the worst kinds of businesses: ones that grow fast, devour capital and earn little on it. He said if he would have been at Kitty Hawk he would have shot Orville down because "Karl Marx couldn't have done as much damage to capitalists as Orville did." This is exactly the charge now being levelled at the hyperscalers: rapid growth, insatiable demand for capital, and returns that don't clear the cost of it.

But the key here is that Rockefeller wanted the cheap abundant trains, planes and automobiles as he controlled the choke point. The ability to turn crude into gasoline, diesel and aviation fuels.

Similarly, the AI revolution will likely be about atoms, not bits, as that’s where the choke point ultimately is. Chips, turbines, transformers – hence critical minerals. In the new AI race the actual chokepoint has moved off bits entirely, onto atoms: silicon, where Nvidia sets the price, and the commodity complex underneath it: copper, steel, gas, uranium, the metals and molecules.

With the exception Google’s TPU, they own very little of this. Think of Google with its TPU as the Gulf Oil/Mellons that became Chevron.

So who is the Standard Oil of the AI story: Its Nvidia. Both with c.85% market share. I am sure Jensen keeps a copy of Dan Yergin's The Prize for nighttime reading as he has played it to the tee.

But unlike Standard Oil, Nvidia doesn’t control its crude supply. It has TSMC and ASML to contend with. So what does the AM revolution tell you about what could happen to Nvidia, TSMC and ASML in the AI revolution?

[Shubhvani @shubhvanii]

There is no single cure for male depression. There’s a daily war you either fight or let it take you.

Depression in men often grows in silence: no purpose, no structure,nno one to speak to, and a mind that won’t shut up. You don’t fix that with one quote or one good day.

What actually helps is boring, unsexy, repeatable work:

-Move your body until your thoughts lose their grip
-Build something so your life has direction, not just reaction
-Speak to someone real instead of letting your mind become your only voice
-Get sunlight, sleep, and routine even when you don’t feel like it
-Limit alcohol and junk dopamine that numbs you short-term and worsens it later

Bcuz the truth is:

Depression feeds on isolation, chaos, and a lack of meaning.

So the counter isn’t a miracle.
It’s structure, connection, and purpose, built one day at a time.

The point is......You don’t cure male depression in one move. You weaken it every day you refuse to quit on yourself.

[Teddy “Trican-Jesus” Gambino @TeddyGambino]

A low vol, Monday in Canada could be rather bloody if le Orange 🍊 decides to release the war pigs.🐷

[Pedro @Pedro100000010]

@crudegusher Large purch from Brazil recently I think

[Pedro @Pedro100000010]

@RazorOil

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

The UAE is building a ~1.4MM Bbl/d, 370km pipeline costing ~$4BN USD, started in 2025 and onstream in 2027. Canada aims to potentially build a 1MM Bbl/d pipeline, to cost ~$40BN, take 8+years, and is tying it to an obsolete/costly $30BN Pathways project. See the difference???

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Reuters: "Full oil ​flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not return before the first or second quarter of ‌2027, even if the Middle East conflict ended now, the head of the United Arab Emirates' state oil firm ADNOC said"

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

Gilles, je vais démonter ta prémisse de départ, parce que tout le reste de ton argument s'effondre avec elle.

Tu pars du principe qu'il faut une « sensibilité de gauche » pour ne pas laisser créver les gens de faim. C'est l'inverse total de ce que dit l'histoire économique des 50 dernières années.

Les chiffres bruts.

1990 : 2,3 milliards de personnes en pauvreté extrême. 38% de l'humanité.
2025 : 831 millions. Environ 10%.

1,5 milliard d'êtres humains sortis de la misère absolue en 35 ans. La plus grande réduction de souffrance humaine de toute l'histoire de l'espèce.

Qui a fait ça ?

Pas l'aide internationale. Pas les ONG. Pas les programmes de redistribution. Pas la « sensibilité de gauche ».

Le marché. L'ouverture commerciale. La Chine de Deng en 1978 qui abandonne le maoisme. L'Inde en 1991 qui libéralise. Le Vietnam, l'Indonésie, le Bangladesh qui s'ouvrent au capitalisme.

Les seuls endroits où l'extrême pauvreté a EXPLOSÉ sur la même période ? Le Vénézuela socialiste : de 27% de pauvres en 2008 à plus de 80% en 2018, avec une inflation de 130 000% et un Vénézuélien moyen qui a perdu 11 kilos par dénutrition. La Corée du Nord. Cuba. Le Zimbabwe de Mugabe.

La gauche ne nourrit pas les pauvres. Elle les fabrique.

Le capitalisme produit tellement de richesse que même ses « perdants » américains vivent mieux que la classe moyenne soviétique. Un pauvre US a un frigo, une voiture, un téléphone, l'air conditionné, internet. Un pauvre cubain attend du riz.

Ton argument selon lequel « le social aux USA est un désastre » repète une légende française. La réalité : le PIB par habitant américain est de 80 000$. Français : 45 000$. Un Mississippien — l'État US le plus pauvre — a un revenu médian supérieur au Français moyen.

La vérité que la gauche française refuse de regarder : dans un système libéral, il y a plus de richesse créée, plus largement distribuée, et beaucoup moins de pauvres. Partout. Sans exception. Sur toutes les périodes mesurées.

ÊTRE de gauche en 2026 face à ces données, ce n'est pas avoir de la « sensibilité ». C'est ignorer 35 ans de preuves accablantes. C'est préférer la posture morale au résultat.

La compassion sans résultats, ça s'appelle de la vanité.

[William Lacey @WilliamLaceyYYC]

Whether you are for or against Alberta separation you should support the Premier in her view that the court ruling should be appealed. Why? There is no duty to consult when it is simply a motion to gain support to put to a motion. Should the motion get support then the duty to consult kicks in. Do you really want to end up in a world where you cannot posit an idea without first engaging in consultation? Be careful what you ask for. Today you may disagree with the view but tomorrow that view may be yours. This is an incredibly dangerous precedent, and the legal system that we operate on is based upon precedent.

[b9_despot @B9Despot]

US #DOE stocks for week ending 5/15/2026 #oott #EIA
Crude : -7.9MM bbls
Gasoline : -1.5
Distillate : +0.4
Cushing : -1.6

Crude ex-SPR : -17.8
SPR : 9.9 drawdown

[Pedro @Pedro100000010]

@RazorOil

[TW @TrystanWall]

@politicalham While TransMountain took too much to construct, it is estimated to generate $11B between 2025-2029, shocking a gov investment got return.
Lagging demand in EV leading to loss of $4B in Stellantis, $4B in Northvolt, $2.5B with Honda, $13B in Volkswagen and pivot of Ford/GM plants

[David Knight Legg @KnightLegg]

Adam Waterous is one of the top investors in Canadian energy. This is one of the most balanced assessments of the new Ottawa-Alberta MOU. Three themes:

1. Canada as energy superpower is great PR, and a nice change coming from the PM.

2. Govt-govt MOUs won’t create a pipeline without investors and builders at the table.

3. Growing the carbon tax 6.5x with C-48 & C-69 still in place means investors will walk away from Canada.

These regulations kill investment, do nothing for the planet, and push talent and money out of Canada to the USA.

[Pedro @Pedro100000010]

@staunovo @HFI_Research

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

I can’t believe we are doing this, but over the next few weeks, we are going to have the largest total crude draw in history, consecutively.

Yes, consecutively.

It is what it is. Let the BACD continue.

[Pedro @Pedro100000010]

@pickeringenergy

[Pedro @Pedro100000010]

@EnergyInvest0r

[Z4 Energy Research @ZmansEnrgyBrain]

ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT SAYS US COULD 'EASILY' DOUBLE NATURAL GAS EXPORTS WITH NO IMPACT ON DOMESTIC PRICES

Thoughts:
1) LNG exports are ~ 21 Bcfgpd capacity now.
2) Another 6 to 7 Bcfgpd goes via pipe to Mexico.
3) If we just speak to exports, he's talking high 20's going to 50+ Bcfgpd.
4) Meanwhile, we have monster in-basin gas demand growth in the West, the greater Haynesville, and Appalachia from AI/data centers.
5) PJM prices spiked sharply in 1Q26 on data center demand.
6) The L48 makes between 108 to 114 Bcfgpd now depending on curtailment levels.
7) So if MexEx, is held flat (and it is expected to grow a little) we need another 25 to 30 Bcfgpd.
8) A lot more wells will need to be drilled and completed.
9) So we can export U.S. resources to other countries where that gas will be sold at higher prices than Henry.
10) Why?

OK, moving on

11) With what new frac army? Capacity is tight now unless you bring back stacked Tier II diesel which would be costly to refurb, costly to staff, and would be expensive to run if you've seen diesel prices lately.
12) No one in frac is chomping at the bit to add more efrac or Tier IV DGB. Improvements, yes. Higher HP per spread, sure. But new units are retiring old ones; they are not incremental.

13) There is no "easy" about this.

14) Maybe years of listening to Chris drone on at Liberty about why the partnership between E&P and OFS always turned out to be so lopsided in favor of the upstream has colored our view on this. But it's not going to be easy.