The Days of Noah Podcast

Jesus said, As in the days of Noah, so it will be when I return. The Days of Noah Podcast: Uncovering the past. Connecting the present. Discerning the future.

[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

The Bible: A Cosmic WAR Document

Clip from EP 183 on The Days of Noah Podcast

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[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

@nobrainflip I absolutely LOVE the $MSTR Saylor FUD. Fire sale prices coming this fall.

[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

@Brandistan007 @nobrainflip Define ponzi.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

MSTR Reality Check

Emotions are running high!

People are getting manipulated by all of the engagement farming FUD and for some reason think Saylor and Strategy are on the brink of some death spiral.

As per usual, these people don't do math. They just post a red chart with a doomer sentence for clicks.

If I remember correctly, MSTR survived 2022. Actually, I don't have to remember, because I can buy the stock today.

Let us compare it to the absolute depth of the 2022 bear compared to today.

On November 21, 2022, Strategy had 130,000 BTC.

Their outstanding debt (senior claims) was equivalent to 146,735 Bitcoin.

Yes, the amount of Bitcoin that MSTR shareholders were economically exposed to was NEGATIVE. -16,735 Bitcoin.

The senior claims left zero residual for the common stock, and yet the stock never went to zero. On that same day, the stock closed at $15.72. The common equity bitcoin exposure NAV per share was -$2.33.

Today, they have 847,363 Bitcoin, with senior claims in Bitcoin at ~351,567 BTC.

Yes, in 2022 the common equity was exposed to -16,735 BTC and now it is exposed to 495,796 BTC.

2022 common equity sats/share: −14,786 sats/share
2026 common equity sats/share: 138,146 sats/share

2022 common equity NAV per share: -$2.33
2026 common equity NAV per share: +$81.69

Yes, right now the stock is trading at $87.64 vs the NAV per share of $81.69.

That means the true CEBE mNAV is 1.07x, a 7% premium to the residual left over after senior claims.

Strategy has a balance sheet built for war.

This is a cake walk compared to 2022.

[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

Daughter's ASTHMA... Cured By CONFESSION of Mom's SIN?

Clip from EP 188 on The Days of Noah Podcast

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[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

ABOMINATION Is Different Than Sin?

[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

Clip from EP 188 on The Days of Noah Podcast

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[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

@Bart_Mol @Bart_Mol You're a little troll. Get a clue and realize how much Saylor has done and is doing GOOD for $Bitcoin.

[The ₿itcoin Therapist @TheBTCTherapist]

Strategy held 279,420 BTC when the stock hit an all time high of $543 in Nov of 2024.

Today Strategy owns 846,842 BTC and the price of MSTR trades at $112.

They’ve increased holdings 3x while watching the stock price drop -80% in 18 months.

[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

@Architect9000 Bad takes you l for $1000, Alex.

[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

@PeterSchiff @saylor @grok, remind me of this post in 2030 when $MSTR is over $500 a share, they own 1.5 Million $BTC, which are worth $200K each, and @PeterSchiff eats Bitcoin crow... AGAIN.

[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

@rektfencer Bad take. Do some actual research Fudster.

[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

@BitcoinTeacher_ Sell half in July IF we get a crypto pump. Buy it back in October.

[Jesse Myers @Croesus_BTC]

STRC down to $82.6 today. Here's my read:

1. Strategy is fine. If everything stays as is, they can pay STRC dividends for 32 years. If BTC appreciates at ~2% CAGR, they can pay dividends indefinitely.

2. Why the sell-off? This appears to be a liquidation cascade.

Over the last 6 months, the narrative became that STRC volatility was reducing, and price began to spend all its time in $99-100 range.

This invites leverage. If you expect the price to always be north of $95, you can take on 20x leverage with your portfolio to buy more STRC and dramatically increase the yield on your portfolio.

This works great, until it doesn't.

STRC is designed as a free-market asset. When attention shifted to SATA and STRC price flagged, it may have raised the attention of opportunistic short-selling hedge funds.

By shorting aggressively, they could push the price down and start triggering margin calls and liquidations from folks who aggressively levered up their STRC positions.

The price action today is a clear liquidation cascade, rapidly pushing prices lower, in turn triggering additional liquidations.

3.
What happens now? The market will heal itself.

Opportunistic hedge funds will recognize that this is a firesale and the fundamentals are unchanged for STRC and step in as buyers. Shorts will close, becoming buyers. Individuals are getting a tremendous entry price for long-term holding STRC shares.

Buyers at this level will get ~13.7% effective yield. If STRC trades back to $100 and they sell, they get an easy +18% return.

4.
What will Strategy do?

Strategy will likely increase the dividend rate on June 30 - maybe to 11.75% but possibly to 12%. Buyers at the current price level then would get 14.2% effective yield from that point forward.

Strategy may also step in to buy STRC shares back. They could do this by issuing new shares of MSTR (currently at 1.14 mNAV) or by taking on traditional debt and deploying those funds to buy discounted STRC shares on the market.

If/when STRC trades back to $100, Strategy could then re-issue those STRC shares. The ~$15 delta per share could be used to buy BTC as pure accretion to MSTR holders, with no net change to amplification.

No doubt that Saylor has already at least considered this, and it wouldn't surprise me if they're currently doing this.

5.
In summary...

The market is freaked out that this depeg is like Terra/Luna... but this is not an asset like that. Strategy's balance sheet determines whether STRC continues to receive dividend payments... and Strategy's balance sheet is completely unchanged.

This is a leverage wipeout.

From this, the market will learn that Digital Credit is mostly very low volatility. But because it is a free market asset, the longer that a Digital Credit instrument trades within a tight range to par... the more leverage will inevitably pile up as people get greedy.

And that creates the conditions for a leverage wipeout depeg. Following that, the instrument will make its way back to par value as the market heals itself and recognizes that the dividend payments will continue uninterrupted because the issuer's balance sheet is unaffected.

[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

@red_alark Bad takes for 1000, Alex.

[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

@Justin_Bons You've had 17 years to understand it. Your post shows a)your willing ignorance of the facts about BTC and/or b)your delusional take. Do some research. Until then, keep your bad takes to yourself.

[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

10th Generation Family Line CURSE- Caused Cancer?

Clip from EP 187 on The Days of Noah Podcast

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[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

CANCER... It Can Be Caused By Unforgiveness?

Clip from EP 187 on The Days of Noah Podcast

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[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

SIN Gives Satan POWER Over Us

Clip from EP 187 on The Days of Noah Podcast

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[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

@TaraBull Poor man. Demon afflicted. Jesus can set him free!

[The Days of Noah Podcast @peteohlinger]

@puckrin I don't think you understand them then. They don't need an exit. They have multiple levers they can pull based on what the company, shareholders, and BTC is doing. They're going to be a 1 Trillion dollar company by 2030.