Peter Garnry

Peter Garnry, CFA, is an investor with 14 years of experience in global equities and was formerly Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

I want to create a pinned thread and give everyone an opportunity to ask questions here related to equities, trading, factor investing, thematic investing etc. and then I will try to answer as many questions as possible based on my experience in these subjects...

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

The dilemma is that if they let the FX rate go dictated by the market the response in the US and Europe will be steep tariffs that will more than offset the gains in exports from the weaker currency.

A Gordian Knot…

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Chinese policymakers remain in a holding pattern while pressure across their financial markets picks up steam.

Bond yields and the FX are at multi-decade lows, and equities are under pressure after the short pop late last year. Markets are starting to force their hand.

Thread.

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

Yesterday, I wrote about how AI is fundamentally transforming the software industry. The increase in CapEx has not been negative for valuations because the market has offset the effect by lifting growth expectations. But there is more to it...

https://t.co/DmXG7cAOPB

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

Grunden til at Kinesiske aktier ikke er investerbare skyldes tre ting.

1) det er meningsløst at tale om aktieinvesteringer i et land uden privat ejendomsret

2) geo politik. Tencent og CATL er lige tilføjet til US blacklist

3) dårlig forrentning af kapitalen

[Kasper Flyvholm @kfj_jagr]

@dagensaktiedk @BodilGantzel @petergarnry Står bare af, hver gang de kalder Kina for uinvesterbart.

Min største bekymring Ift at investere i "onde" lande såsom Kina, er EU eller USAs politikeres ageren. Og ikke så meget de "onde" landes ledere.

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

@dagensaktiedk @BodilGantzel Mange tak for perspektiveringen og de flotte ord Søren. Skal gøre mit til at holde niveauet højt 👍

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

@mikaelmilhoj @MagnusBarsoe Det var mega godt…2024 var et finurligt år. 2025 bliver mindst ligeså spændende. Godt nytår Mikael!

[Mikael Olai Milhøj @mikaelmilhoj]

Jeg har talt om investeringsåret 2024 med @petergarnry og @MagnusBarsoe i Børsen Brænder.

En fin blanding mellem regioner, temaer, økonomiske forskelle og politik.

Lyt med f.eks. nedenfor https://t.co/29EebyDhqG #dkøko

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

Despite having zero engagement or interest in crypto and also do not engagement in AI discussions outside those related to equity valuations, my feed is swarmed with hyperbolic comments and indirect advertisement of AI scams and crypto.

Now on Bluesky...
https://t.co/1cQ1IiHcLL

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

@mikeharrisNY I have that view for quite some time now, but it does not only relate to MicroStrategy, but many other segments of the market. Too many are risk blind these days...

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

@relativelyinte1 Cheers!

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

Yesterday, I wrote about free cash flow, active investing, and why return of capital is not a value driver. Check it out.

Next post is about how AI investments are impacting equity valuations for software companies.

It is all about free cash flow
https://t.co/DGm5Z80yl9

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

What game are you playing? This is an essential question everyone should ask themselves.

You can play the game in financial markets in many different ways.

My game is being a patient and free cash flow focused investor. I want to talk less about price and more about value.

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

Google, Meta, and Microsoft total employee figures are up 52.5%, 23.5% and 58.3% respectively since Q4 2019.

Labor markets remain tight everywhere and technology companies are prioritizing CAPEX over OPEX right now because of gold rush in AI.

The death of developers is wrong.

[John Rush @johnrushx]

I've replaced 100% of my marketing & sales dept with AI in 2024.
It's literally just me + AI Agents, AI wrappers & AI workflows now.

My goal for 2025 is to replace 90% of support, operations, and the rest.

I'm not alone 🧵 :

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

@mikaelmilhoj Ja kombinationen er ikke optimal. Vi skal have mere atomkraft i Europa men det kommer til at tage tid 😅

I en perfekt verden finder vi et gennembrud på energilagring til lave omkostninger som flader intradag priserne ud og måske også på ugebasis.

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

@bjorn_agust I would not short quality tech but for sure tier 2/3 tech stocks are disconnected. Europe is a good hunting ground right now but you need to be selective…

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

A significant part of this spread widening, which is important to think deeper about for any investor, is due to widening sector weight differentials.

The more interesting thing is to compare industries and see whether valuation spreads are still large for identical assets.

[Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets]

Amazing. US stocks are trading at a 75-year high in relative terms vs European equities.

Do we ever see anything even vaguely resembling mean reversion, or is Europe just toast?

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

Quality independent research from a skilled, out-of-the-box thinker and respected former colleague.

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

@Ole_S_Hansen Thanks for the shout out Ole 🙏

[Quanta Magazine @QuantaMagazine]

In a paper published today in Nature, researchers at Google Quantum AI crossed a significant threshold in quantum error correction, moving quantum computers one step closer to practical applications. @benbenbrubaker reports: https://t.co/4g0XuU9vRX

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

@JacekCzerniaws2 I have similar thoughts. I still struggle to see the big leap yet relative to the billions invested. I will soon write about what genAI is doing to the software industry from an investment perspective ;-)

[Peter Garnry @petergarnry]

Funny experience with AI and writing style.

I write some text and asks for its opinion on the style etc. It comes back with authenticity, personal style, inviting, but recommends sentence variety and more conciseness. I then prompt it to improve conciseness.