Peter Watson

Happily living and working in China

[CN Wire @Sino_Market]

🇨🇳Goldman Sachs: China Stocks Bull Run to Continue Through 2027
1. Market Performance & Near-Term Outlook
- 2026–2027 forecast: Expect continued bull run, but at a slower pace.
- Projected gains: +38% by end-2027, supported by 14% profit growth in 2026E and 12% in 2027E.
- ~10% potential for multiple re-rating.
2. Macro & Policy Context
- 2025 GDP growth forecast: Raised to 5% from 4.5%.
- Policy stance: Stronger-than-expected growth reduces urgency for additional stimulus.
- MSCI China fair value: Estimated at 74, 11% below current levels, indicating growth optimism outweighs lukewarm policy support.
3. Technology & AI
- AI breakthroughs have redefined the narrative for tech equities.
- Widespread AI adoption could drive ~3% annual earnings growth over the next decade via cost savings, productivity, and new revenue streams.
- Valuations in China's AI tech sector have re-rated, but remain cheaper than U.S. peers, considering potential capex upside and AI monetization focus.
4. Export & Global Revenue Trends
- China's export model is evolving:
· From low-cost DM manufacturing → high-end EM exports, services, IP, and cultural products.
· Overseas revenue growth: From 12% a decade ago → 16% now → projected 20% by 2030.
- Expected earnings boost for MSCI China: ~1.5% annually due to higher overseas profitability.
5. Consumption Trends
- Emerging consumer segments driving growth: Entertainment, Specialty retail (e.g., PopMart), Leisure, Packaged food (e.g., pet food).
#CHINA $SHCOMP $SSEC $ASHR $HSI $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG $YINN $YANG #STOCKMARKET
https://t.co/oMTOoQAk95

[Peter Watson @peterwatson]

@macastel3 Which 3?

[China Xinhua News @XHNews]

China on Thursday launched island-wide special customs operations in the Hainan Free Trade Port (FTP), the world's largest FTP by area, allowing freer entry of overseas goods, expanded zero-tariff coverage and more business-friendly measures. https://t.co/yZhXX0533v

[Marco Castelli @macastel3]

China is the Manufacturing hub

No need to shop around other smaller and unstable countries to save a few cents

[Peter Watson @peterwatson]

Baby changing room at a Shenzhen shopping mall. China has changed… a lot!

[Rui Ma @ruima]

The hubby wrote this upon returning from China, I thought it was interesting so am sharing:

"I just spent 10 days in China. It really showed me how far ahead — or how far behind — the U.S. is on some things.
Here are five that stood out:

1. Eldercare in China is MILES ahead of the US
Honestly, the eldercare community I visited in China made even top-tier U.S. retirement homes look third-world by comparison. Picture a place for 10,000 seniors that feels more like a vibrant college campus: swimming pools, daily classes, assistants on hand, and even the tiniest details like safety bars in every bathroom. It’s a whole different level of respect for aging well.

2. Life in China is literally UNIMAGINABLY convenient...
Living in the U.S. my whole life never prepared me for the sheer speed of life in Beijing. E-commerce and food delivery there is so fast that Amazon’s same-day feels slow. More than once, if we needed something at dinner—like extra bowls at the apartment—we ordered and it arrived before we’d even finished eating. It’s a combination of top-tier logistics, a dense urban population, and a workforce that makes convenience almost unimaginable by U.S. standards.

3. ...and digital life is EVEN MORE seamless
It’s not just the physical deliveries that are optimized to the hilt—the digital side is equally smooth. Apps in China felt insanely intuitive, and the mobile internet never had that clunky feeling it sometimes does in the U.S. While we were there, we could subscribe to a bundle of kids’ shows like Peppa Pig or Bluey for a whole week for about a dollar. No complicated sign-ups—just scan a QR code and you’re done. The delivery of digital goods was just as on-demand and effortless as the physical ones

4. The average 40-year-old male is in TERRIBLE shape, but the average 70-year-old male is in GREAT shape
Walking down the street, you’ll spot a lot of middle-aged men who look like they’ve never hit the gym. Then you turn around and see a 70-year-old casually doing pull-ups in the park. It’s a bit of a head-scratcher, but something about the lifestyle or healthcare here is producing a strange inversion.

5. Health priorities are weird
In China, health priorities sometimes feel upside down compared to the U.S. I had elderly folks lecturing me that my kid would catch a cold for not wearing socks in 70-degree weather—while at the same time, grandpas were puffing away on cigarettes right on the playground, and nobody batted an eye. It’s a whole different set of health quirks and cultural standards that definitely took some getting used to.

6. Jay Chou has not aged a day since 1997

Anyone else been to China recently? What were your impressions?"

[Taylor Ogan @TaylorOgan]

This is crazy. There's a new mural being painted outside of where I play tennis in Shenzhen. I noticed they painted, "I CHOICE SZ" in balloon letters, instead of "I CHOOSE SZ". So I filed a ticket via 12345 WeChat Mini Program (Shenzhen's citizen hotline) at 3:06pm on Tuesday. Last night (Wednesday), it had been repainted!

[Peter Watson @peterwatson]

My son's first passport arrived this morning with a nice touch from @IrlEmbChina . Special thanks to Cici Zhao.

[Ryan Petersen @typesfast]

The Trump administration’s new definition of “transshipping” in the Vietnam trade deal may be an attempt to fundamentally redefine the way customs law works in ways that will make global trade compliance endlessly more complicated (and expensive). 🧵

[Peter Watson @peterwatson]

@InsideChinaAuto What's the bike?

[Peter Watson @peterwatson]

@InsideChinaAuto @PhilFoden Best upgrade is the 7-seat option. Lovely car inside

[Marco Castelli @macastel3]

China June ‘24 trade data:

Exports +10.7% y/y
Imports -0.6% y/y

Export booming and import suffering.

Still the manufacturing base of the world.

[Peter Watson @peterwatson]

@PicturesFoIder SCUM

[Peter Watson @peterwatson]

@noelkealey @Marriott Wah

[Peter Watson @peterwatson]

@macastel3 I think you might have jinxed it 😦

[Peter Watson @peterwatson]

@InsideChinaAuto Best of luck in the year of the Dragon

[Peter Watson @peterwatson]

@sniffpetrol @Carpervert Tesla Model Y? If that's correct, congrats, they're brilliant

[Peter Watson @peterwatson]

@HSKTestOfficial which is the current HSK standard? 2.0 with 6 levels or 3.0 with 9 levels?

[Peter Watson @peterwatson]

@noelkealey That's just a rounding error in how much the trip will cost

[Peter Watson @peterwatson]

What is the best Irish Pub in Paris to visit during the #RWC2023?