phads

Early $IREN and $CIFR Bull | Acqua Panna Drinker | $BTC $ETH AI/HPC || We are still so early, the pace of innovation is only just going to keep accelerating!

[phads @PhadsEth]

My attempt to unpack what @mikealfred mentioned in the space last night on the significant opportunity for $IREN. IREN is best positioned IMO to server a new trend in Enterprise AI (think Fortune 500) customer needs:

There is a trend within AI called “AI cloud repatriation” or “Infrastructure Sovereignty” where companies are moving their AI workloads OFF general public clouds, and bringing them “back” to private, dedicated infrastructure.

Why? Because AI is becoming more and more ingrained into a company’s processes and workflows, to the point where the AI “harnesses” being built are the future fabric of the company. AI is literally becoming the core brain of the business.

To put it simply: AI represents the company’s future IP, and there is a saying in enterprise IT “Don’t rent your brain”

Therefore, many enterprise businesses (Fortune 500 plus heavily regulated industries and governments) will look to a fully vertical integrated AI data center solution for 3 reasons:

1) paranoia of shared hardware (multi-tendency): public clouds only separate companies at the software layer, but their data is still moving across the same physical network cables and storage drives. This is why companies like Jane Street and Pharma researchers are building their own AI DCs, their algorithm and research is their edge, so any risk greater than zero is unacceptable.

2) telemetry and metadata fear: even if a hyperscaler doesn’t train off the data directly, they still collect a lot of telemetry and metadata which is insightful: how many GPUs are you using, what times of day your inference spikes and in what countries / regions, etc. This is important when the Mag7 are also expanding into healthcare, finance, and logistics themselves

3) the threat of lock-in to one ecosystem: as mentioned before, AI is becoming the brain for companies to operate, so locking into 1 provider means you will be forced to pay higher and higher costs when prices go up, because the switching costs are too high when your company literally is running on your AI setup

If this trend holds, IREN would be one of the FEW who could really capitalize on this, which the TAM would be the Fortune 500 companies plus heavily regulated / government / proprietary industries. It is just easier for a fully integrated DC provider to make these hardware specific adjustments to their DCs [networking, storage, etc], where speed and costs matter.

One area of “weakness” for $IREN could be their software stack, but I believe solutions like Nvidia’s AI Enterprise solution will be able to help fill the void, if not direct M&A by IREN in the future.

Therefore, don’t be disappointed if no “mega deal” is announced this week, but look at how they are strategically acquiring new power capabilities across the globe that will be key to their AI factory model to copy & paste the DC, but allow the tenant to customize / segment their data + networking + storage per their needs.

I have been an $IREN holder since 2022, and am excited to see how this all plays out!

#InIRENWeTrust

Few

[phads @PhadsEth]

This is where you start to see the real top tier AI / HPC data centers separate out from the rest. My money (literally) is primarily on $IREN $CIFR .

Rerating #2 will happen once the market trusts these two in their ability to execute on their committed AI HPC DC projects.

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

Standing up a next-gen data center is no joke. While it may seem like the big boys will backstop you - they really won’t. And they have big expectations based on their history of execution - ie they are good at this so they expect the same from others.

If you can’t live up to their expectations, the liquidated damages clauses, alone, can bankrupt a neoscalers. Then you can also loose your IG wrapper which can do it as well.

Net/net, lots of upside if you get it right but this isn’t for the faint of heart.

[phads @PhadsEth]

@mikealfred At game 4!

(Actually just visiting but still great energy)

[phads @PhadsEth]

🎯

[phads @PhadsEth]

Definitely in over sold territory $IREN $CIFR. Hope you didn’t get shaken out!

[phads @PhadsEth]

@mikealfred 👀

[phads @PhadsEth]

@mikealfred @NoPainInvesting @optionscjp 🤣🤣🤣 barely keeping up with inflation at 4%

[phads @PhadsEth]

Definitely in over sold territory $IREN $CIFR. Hope you didn’t get shaken out!

[phads @PhadsEth]

Sept $ETHA call options looking pretty good right now! 👀 picked up a few betting this is near the relative bottom

[phads @PhadsEth]

@brianfry01 @unaibld Can you talk more to the robotics infrastructure? I haven’t thought too deeply on what the coming robotic wave will need for compute / inference

[phads @PhadsEth]

@brianfry01 @tempocap2 It’s crazy, you see all the dots connecting and the arsenal building up, but yet most institutional investors will only seriously jump in once everything has already been proven out completely. I guess we just sit and wait in anticipation for when that day finally comes

[phads @PhadsEth]

@rftylerpage @CipherInc @SullyCNBC @KellyCNBC @PowerLunch Nice job speaking on the show today. Made me more bullish on $CIFR BTM with that “endless ocean of natural gas” adjacent to your major sites. Look forward to hearing more details soon on permitting, supply chain availability, etc

[phads @PhadsEth]

@SmallCapSnipa “All of our properties sit next to an endless ocean of natural gas” - interesting way to grow from the 4.2GWs of secured power

[𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 @Agrippa_Inv]

Most $IREN investors don't yet grasp how profitable the 60 MW $NVDA deal actually is.

Despite being just 20% of the MW capacity, it yields more cumulative net income than the 300 MW $MSFT agreement.

This is a direct result of $IREN locking in stronger terms.

Now that $IREN is quickly establishing itself as one of the premier cloud providers with the deepest pipeline in the industry, I expect future deals to land at similar profit margins.

Considering the price action since last earnings, the market clearly hasn't priced that in yet.

[phads @PhadsEth]

I believe the best chance for an Anthropic + IREN minimum (starter) deal would be for DC capacity in AUS / APAC. I think they wanted to announce this at earnings, but the AUS gov’t regulators hadn’t yet approved in time (hence Dan’s post). However, it is likely coming by this summer IMO. Check out the similar south wales DC jobs postings @ilzmcfly found

[McFly @ilzmcfly]

Many things to pin $IREN & Anthropic working together

1) the idential job reports submitted by each company for the same location

2) IREN confirmed to be in negotiations with a Frontier Lab at Needham Conference

3) Leopold Aschenbrenner increased it's Iren position significantly. Making it its 4'th largest position. His wife works for Anthropic.

4) Jensen said on recent ER: "The amount of capacity that we're going to bring online for @AnthropicAI this year and next year is going to be quite significant". this follows as $NVDA just partnered with $IREN to bring up 5GW of compute online.

I think at this point we know Iren can work with anyone, they have already confirmed they are in contact with almost everyone in the industry.

Many Investors are focusing on 'wen deal' but it's what deal. As a investor signing a deal is good but we don't want a deal that will disappoint. Since Iren is the most transparent out of all the neo-clouds on their deal economics I think we should wait for the right one. Like the $NVDA deal with 50% Profit margins, if Iren can continue to sign capacity with such strong economics that would be great.

-> MW's are Appreciating
-> GPU's are Appreciating

- Iren Secured GPU's early for 2026 capacity
- Iren holds the unicorn of power; 5GW grid-connected + confirmed more on the way

Iren confirmed they are in customer negotiations for 2027 guidance already.

IREN already secured the GPU's for this years 130MW leftover capacity so already the is a increase in bottom line since the price per GPU's are on the rise. I think they would likely beat this years ARR target of $3.7b and hit somewhere around $4.1b.

IREN has 800MW left to build across it's 2026/2027 capacity guidance. The stock does not reflect any of that in. As they are waiting for Contracts and financing.

[phads @PhadsEth]

@penny_ether 👀 wow, never thought I would see the day! Worth a flier just in case, but some of the persistent issues you called out can still hold down the stock

[phads @PhadsEth]

@mikealfred 🥂🍾 👊

[phads @PhadsEth]

@Agrippa_Inv @mcF_dan The analysis you do is next level! Appreciate the rigor and effort you put into these deep dives 🙏

[phads @PhadsEth]

@mikealfred 👀

[phads @PhadsEth]

@CABeyney @FransBakker9812 @Stagler987 @Willemi57273232 @ilzmcfly @B__Digs