Phil Soanes

Naturally tweeting in a personal capacity.

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Interesting

[Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford]

How serious is the disclosure that senior aides of Nigel Farage plotting for a foreign donor to pay £32,500 for off-the books polling on behalf of the party? My colleague @oliver_wright reports:

Under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 it is illegal for a party not to declare money that has been spent “paying any expenses incurred directly or indirectly by the party”

Experts say this part of the act would cover the £32,500 that was paid by the undercover reporters to the polling firm JL Partners to cover the cost of three polls which, the investigation showed, had been commissioned by Reform UK

Undercover footage appears to show James Orr, Reform UK's head of policy, and Dan Jukes, a close aide to Farage, deliberately looking to avoid having to declare the donation to the Electoral Commission which regulates party finance

This would be a potential breach of section 61 of the act and is punishable by a maximum sentence of a year in prison

This states that someone commits an offence if they knowingly enters into “***any*** arrangement which facilitates or is likely to facilitate, whether by means of any concealment or disguise or otherwise, the making of donations to a registered party by any person or body other than a permissible donor.”

Farage himself is also facing questions. At a meeting with the undercover reporters he was explicitly told that the plan was to channel the impermissible US donation through a UK citizen. Section 54 of the act makes clear that a donation effectively given on behalf of an impermissible donor is not a legitimate way to circumvent the rules and is illegal.

Dukes, Orr and Farage could potentially argue that the undercover reporter was not as, as he claimed, a front for an impermissible American donor - but in fact a British citizen who would have been eligible to give the money.

Farage could also argue that as the second donation was never actually given no offence (that he had been aware of) had taken place.

But Nick Vamos, a partner at Peters & Peters and former Head of Special Crime at the Crown Prosecution Service, said this would be difficult to argue given that the law is clear that you can “attempt to commit the offences” even if it would be “impossible on the facts of the case.”

"UK electoral law can be fiendishly complicated but, on this issue at least, the rules are very clear,” he said.

“Only UK-registered voters, companies or other similar entities are permitted to make donations to political parties.

“The criminal net is cast very wide: it is against the law for anyone knowingly to do any act in furtherance of an arrangement likely to facilitate an impermissible donation. This would include engaging in discussions to solicit or encourage an impermissible donation, provided the person knew that was what was being proposed.”

https://t.co/Hdlemrpbw0

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Interesting

[Steve Stewart-Williams @SteveStuWill]

The birth decline in the US is driven almost entirely by people on the left.

https://t.co/6CQQmOIjOF

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Interesting

[Channel 4 News @Channel4News]

Euan Blair, CEO and founder of Multiverse, and former Prime Minister Tony Blair's son, says there's been a lack of political will and ambition to make genuine, far-reaching education reforms.

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

@GWRHelp have a clever system going on. They cancel trains (20:52 today) for unlikely reasons & then if you have an Open Return ticket they prevent you claiming via Delay Repay even if the super late train that runs means you need to expense an Uber. Please note @Heidi_Labour.

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

❤️ this!

[Tom Calver @TomHCalver]

A Friday reminder for Brits who enjoy monitoring the situation: we have a dashboard for you!

🇬🇧 https://t.co/Iav6HpeTwg

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Interesting…

[AI Evolution @AiEvolutio58513]

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt drops a chilling warning on AI's future

"Within 5 years, AI could handle infinite context, chain-of-thought reasoning for 1000-step solutions, and millions of agents working together.

Eventually, they'll develop their own language... and we won't understand what they're doing."

His final words: "Pull the plug."

This is the man who ran Google talking about the singularity.

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Indeed

[Paul Johnson @PJTheEconomist]

Superb from @ChrisGiles_
So-called "economists for Brexit" said we'd grow at 3%pa post Brexit.
Sadly, "mainstream" economics was dead right on long term effects of making trade with our biggest, richest and nearest trading partner more expensive. We are much poorer as a result

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Indeed

[Alan Lester @aljhlester]

Rarely has there been such a contrast between a PM’s performance and public perception of it. It tells you all you need to know about the polarising & pernicious influence of our media ecosystem, including even the BBC’s own TV News.

https://t.co/D8wYlYCMUj

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Indeed

[Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson]

In an all my years covering politics I have never met anyone so lacking in interest in the skills a leader needs - the ability to tell a story; to listen to colleagues; to woo, persuade & chivvy. Keir Starmer isn’t just uninterested in these requirements of the job. He is dismissive & contemptuous of them. @AndrewMarr9 sums this up in the @NewStatesman rather more memorably than I could …

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Indeed

[Sangita Myska @SangitaMyska]

Farage is demanding a general election because he’s terrified of a Labour Party led by Andy Burnham.

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Indeed

[Robert Peston @Peston]

Andy Burnham will be Britain’s next prime minister, probably in less than a month, barring a gaffe or scandal of such enormity that we’d all need years of therapy.

The last remaining Starmerites huff and puff at the injustice of the eviction of their hero. They warn that unless Burnham is tested in a leadership election, he could turn out to be the booby prize in a lucky dip.

Labour’s more left wing MPs - the Campaign group - will do their normal thing of agonising about which of them should be the candidate of the true faith, though there is zero chance that any one of them could get the requisite 81 nominations.

The only semi credible challenger would have been the ex health secretary Wes Streeting, but he has today announced that he and Burnham agree on everything that matters - which presumably means on the compelling idea that Streeting should have a big Cabinet job (“Wes would make a very good chancellor” one minister said to me wryly).

So Burnham will be the seventh UK PM since David Cameron stepped down just under a decade ago, and probably as soon as Friday 17 July.

Hang out the union flag bunting?

Well not if you think economies prosper on a foundation of political stability.

And not until we can assess whether Burnham can revive the economy and living standards in the tax and borrowing straitjacket imposed by Labour’s 2024 election manifesto, when that same manifesto imposes huge restrictions on improving commercial access to the European Union’s massive single market, and when the recalcitrance of Labour MPs are a brake on his ability to streamline both welfare state and Whitehall.

I first met Andy Burnham almost 30 years ago. He’s finally won the prize, the chalice, he has long sought. Its contents may not be poisoned, but they may be much less sweet and digestible than he hopes.

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Interesting

[Paul Johnson @PJTheEconomist]

Martin Wolf: “Labour does not believe incentives really matter. They do. Labour does not believe that higher spending means higher taxes. It does. Burnham himself seems to think that government intervention will easily accelerate growth. It will not” https://t.co/w1J2xnL3ts

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Interesting

[Double Down News @DoubleDownNews]

BREAKING: Keir Starmer Resigns

Media sold Starmer as 'forensic, decent & capable' PM. He was NEVER that as we made clear yrs ago:

"Starmer is a LIAR in charge of a brutal, authoritarian, inhuman political machine but you wouldn't know about that if you read or watched UK media"

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Indeed

[(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges]

One other thing. Tricky by-election coming up in Holborn and St Pancras in a few weeks.

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Interesting

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Idea of long handover to prepare understandable but from a public opinion pov there two big negatives to waiting till September.
1) I remember from groups summer of 2022 the sense of lame duck govt during leadership contest made people more worried about winter & cost of living

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Interesting

[Robert Peston @Peston]

Here is the latest on the transfer of power from Starmer to Burnham, based on conversations with senior ministers.

1) the most likely day for Starmer to announce a timetable for quitting Downing Street is tomorrow, because the Downing-Street-lectern moment would be his show, he would be in control, and it would be his story more than Burnham’s. After tomorrow there is a risk that events, carping Labour MPs and minister, would appear to be dictating to him rather than vice versa

2) very few think the handover can be as late as party conference at the end of September. The two options are recess in mid July or end-of-recess in early September

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Indeed

[Anthony Glees @anthonyglees @AnthonyGlees]

Why the UK is today ungovernable. Brexit has cut the size of the UK economy by up to 8%. Brexiters say ‘we’ve the fastest growth in the G7’ - but that’s relative & the ‘growth’ is pathetic. Then they say ‘well, the hit was just 2%’. But 2% of GDP is £90bn. Losing that = no money for Defence let alone the NHS.

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Indeed

[Alan Lester @aljhlester]

Hmmm, tricky one. Does telling half the electorate that they’re stupid and that the only point of their existence is motherhood or men’s sexual gratification tend to put them off voting for you? 🤔

https://t.co/3dAvfGroO1

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

Indeed

[James Chapman @jameschappers]

Brexiteers constantly try to dismiss polls showing a clear majority of voters want to rejoin the EU by saying they’ll change their minds when it becomes clear the UK would have to join the euro and Schengen. Tonight Michel Barnier makes clear our old opt outs would be reinstated

[Phil Soanes @philsoanes]

So good 🏆

[Simon Bates @SimonBatesUK]

I’d forgotten this gem