WeWork has defined and impacted the whole Co-working playbook globally
-but it was not a 'Venture Scale' buisness which necessitate Technology Leverage,Rapid Distribution,Scale or Marketplace model
Which can fulfill returns expectations of VC due to ARR-Velocity
So choose Rapid Growth-more leases leading to Huge Burn and Superfluous spends.
Alternate form of Funding+Slower Growth could have made the Company sustainable
Making money with the Global Networks-Pooling of Resources
The Wework Global Card +Premiumization in lines with Value addition Soho house
Complimentary with his new venture of CoHousing startup Flow
His Fund Raising Ability
And Ability to push limits can't be denied
Let's see how it works out
Power Law is present everywhere
Hopefully-Founders-VC-will take better calls post learnings
[Alibaba Q4-23]
It's time to talk about the untrusted and undervalued Chinese giant and accept that once more, $BABA gave a solid quarter.
EPS: $2.62 | $2.67 | +1.9% beat🟢
Revenue: $36.7B | $36.6B | on expectation🟠
$2.9B of buyback - 292.7M shares.
New buyback program of $25B bringing the total amount of available buyback to $35.3B to March 2027.
Just for information, that would allow them to buy around 450M shares at $80. For a total float of 2.5B shares. Just saying.
[Business]
I can't go over what Alibaba proposes as they're a conglomerate of so many businesses... I always compare them to $AMZN so I'll do it once more.
--- TaoBao
Taobao is the e-commerce part, an online shop on which you can find almost anything. A branch that is showing acceptable growth for the company.
A slow growth compared to Q4-22 but a very correct on if you take the nine months ending.
"The number of transacting buyers and order volume growing strongly, partly offset by decrease in average order value."
I'd rather see the contrary but growing volume is also a good thing.
--- Cloud services
Once again, I'd assume this is what hurts Alibaba the most, but the company said that it would take time for them to grow this part of their business.
Even more when you know the war going on against China when it comes to chips.
I personally count much more on the retail part of the company than on its cloud part from now. China lacks the technological power to grow those sectors as $MSFT can.
--- AIDC
The Internationnal e-comerce part of Alibaba (Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol, Daraz, Miravia and Alibaba).
Now that's much more interesting. We know Aliexpress became the number 1 e-commerce platform in Europe and it seems to accelerate. The revenue growth is really strong.
"the combined orders of AIDC grew 24% year-over-year."
The loss is apparently due to increased investments in their platform. This should be checked more precisely although it's easy to identify that most of the loss does come from this quarter - 3.1B compared to a nine months lost of 3.9B.
--- Cainio
The logistic network because when you sell internationally, it's easier to also transport things yourself.
That part of the company is going well and is even turning profitable, with a 27% revenue growth YoY and a 5% net margin. Weak but growing.
--- Local Services
This is $BABA's Uber Eat. And although still unprofitable, this branch of the company continues to grow properly.
"Local Services Group’s annual active consumers reached over 390 million and their annual purchasing frequency grew strongly year-over-year for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023."
Far from profitability yet but that's not Alibaba's concern.
--- Digital Mediaand Entertainment Group
The story repeat itself, again. A growing branch in term of revenue, still unprofitable but on a good path to profitability.
[Revenues]
I know it's a lot. For both of us. Alibaba does so many things it's tough to keep track and to have a critical view on it all, but here's how I'd interpret this quarter, with a summary of all its branches.
Everything is growing in terms of revenue, and growing strong if you take the nine months ending. Most importantly, the e-commerce branches have never been better.
And although most branches are unprofitable, their business is growing and Alibaba still makes cash at the end of the day.
More than the year before. It seems like a strong position to me. Growing unprofitable businesses while still maintaining global profitability with a strong balance sheet.
That's my view of Alibaba as of now.
In terms of balance sheet, the company stays strong with roughly $78B of cash for around $20B of debt.
[Conclusion]
It might not be the strongest quarter for Alibaba, strongly impacted but those huge expenses in the international e-commerce branch - which should be a one-time investment.
But e-commerce works and grows, locally and internationally. Every branch actually grows - besides the cloud one - in terms of business.
While the cash-flow statements and balance sheet stay very strong. Once more, being able to grow businesses while staying profitable is a powerful position.
I stay on my grounds. Alibaba is already undervalued. And its business grows.
Still long. Will probably buy more.
6. Fertility rates in China and Taiwan have reduced at similar rates over the past 50 years, suggesting that China’s one-child policy didn’t have a significant effect on curbing its population growth.
Recently, I decided I wanted to read every page of one of my favorite websites, @OurWorldInData.
I’m about halfway now.
Here are the 30 most surprising things I’ve learned about the world so far! 🧵
Sunday read.
Been rounding up Reddit posts where ex-employees reveal “company secrets.” Here are some crazy ones:
1/ “Glassdoor removes job reviews and lets employers choose which ones get shown first!”
4) I think there are interesting long ideas in every category / factor: unprofitable growth, quality / defensive compounders and cheap cyclicals. What is important is having a micro idiosyncratic thesis for why the stock is mispriced. I agree with @pmje73 here.
You lose valuable time with every minute you spend in shame or sorrow about your perceived ‘lack.’
You have pure power when you work with one thing at a time in the present moment.
9/ You're still here, huh? Looking for post-credit scenes?
I got none. But a bonus for you:
Ever wonder why some marketplace like App Store charges a take-rate of >15% while others charge lesser?
Check this legendary post by Bill Gurley: https://t.co/SpweI66HxT
@bradchattergoon Hi Brad, fellow SOM alum here. Sorry to hear that you need to leave the US. Let me know if you are looking for an opportunity in Southeast Asia (SG, TH). I’m currently at Shopee but can help connect with other companies as well - SEA or Germany.
The total value of Y Combinator companies is over $250 billion.
Including Airbnb, Stripe and Coinbase.
Here are the 10 best resources from their startup library:
How take-rates can drive profits growth and profit margin expansions.
Read if you're interested in business models used by $AMZN $ETSY $SE $BABA $MELI $EBAY
And there are those of you still hung up on whether the oligarchs are “good” or “bad” or can be “trusted.” But those naive concepts don’t exist in the adult world. Doesn’t matter if the oligarchs are good or bad (they’re bad). But they can be “trusted” to care about their money!