Li Pik Sing

Political junkie, occasional troll and accidental lawyer.

[Zhongjing Liu | 劉仲敬 @LiuZhongjing]

政治家如果能夠合作，就不會把責任推給專家。專家承擔政治責任，必然是為破裂背鍋。
藍白的鬥爭比白綠和藍綠激烈得多，屬於你死我活的性質。
國民黨如果當不上主要反對黨，就會像印度國大黨一樣永遠出局，當不上總統，倒沒什麼大不了的。
民眾黨如果選舉失敗，沒什麼大不了的，如果做了國民黨的副總統，粉絲就全散了，一半投奔賴清德，一半睡覺不投票，親民黨的地位都維持不住。
民眾黨指望國民黨資源支持自己的國會議員擴增，是指望國民黨自殺。國民黨指望民眾黨支持自己的總統選舉，是指望民眾黨自殺。
這樣荒謬的合作能夠達成，只能是白區黨的求生慾望在起作用。即使以後破局，我們至少向紅區黨證明了我們還是很努力的。白區黨資源不足，那是不可抗力。
馬英九做的每一件事都是傷害國民黨，有利於白區黨���這一次也不例外。國民黨如果早點推出自己的副總統，比指望藍白合作又上當有利。民眾黨全靠柯文哲，副總統人選並不重要。
民進黨��四到八年的短期看，柯文哲的危險大於國民黨。柯文哲的青年支持者和民進黨重疊很大，增加了選舉的風險，國民黨就沒有這個問題，不會出意外。從八年以後的長期看，民眾黨比國民黨好。民眾黨不像國民黨有中國主義意識形態傳統和組織，是機會主義的大篷車政黨，台灣民眾黨的意識形態跟民進黨差別不大，只要取代國民黨坐穩第二大黨，統派就永遠不能復活了，柯文哲以後，一人黨未必能有明星領袖。如果不發生戰爭，民進黨華獨黨和台獨小黨的鬥爭就是未來的主流。

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

@PekingMike That'll be a big bet politically. Taiwanese are not as liberal as they appear.

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

Good thread by our dear kevin

[Kevin Wei Luo @kevinweiluo]

after the round of excellent 🧵s by @ProfYangZhang @wjhurst @YanLong_SOC on the dynamics of protest in China recently, I think it's time to consider the 🐘 in the room: what's the future of China's COVID policy? (inspired by @onglynette's excellent FP article - link later) 1/10

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

@Cheng_yi_Huang 考量到習近平可��的回應，這大概會是一連串骨牌效應的起點。

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

四通橋真的燒出一把火...

[Vivian Wu @vivianwubeijing]

Beijing tonight, right now. 京城大厦 Beijing Capital Club, a landmark 5-star mansion on the third ring road, kilos away from Liang Ma Qiao. Ppl chanting “ 不要谎言要尊严” which means we don’t want lies, we want dignity. It’s happening right now!

[William Hurst @wjhurst]

I've been studying various aspects of #protest & contentious #politics in #China for 25 years.

What's happening now is novel, interesting, & potentially quite important. But we need to be careful about drawing conclusions or making predictions. A🧵:
1/22
@CamGeopolitics @NCUSCR

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

@kevinweiluo I mean, organizational theories are put under the umbrella of meso theory by most social theory textbook. I am not a fan of grand theory but I'm fine with this taxonomy.

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

The libertarian ideas of @elonmusk stretch only to the extent that they will not harm his business. Bad PR, bad governance, and possible more debt for @Twitter and @Tesla

[Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @DrewPavlou]

Twitter locked my account for 12 hours after I made a post joking that Elon Musk supports Taiwan Independence

(Tesla has a massive factory in Shanghai that depends on massive Chinese government tax breaks)

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

@Cheng_yi_Huang 老師真的相信flippable 的中間選民有那麼多嘛？每次民調做出來都是說20%~30%，但我只看過投票/不投票的選民而沒看過藍綠都投過的選民。

[Li Yuan袁莉 @LiYuan6]

Thanks Scott for coming to the show and sharing your insightful observations. It’s a great episode!

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

Usually, it's the media that is chased after. SupChina seems to live up to the name of China here by turning the table.

[Bethany 貝書穎 @BethanyAllenEbr]

One may reasonably find it concerning that U.S. congressmen want to label a news outlet a foreign agent. AND it is also super concerning that SupChina's response is to hire Harvey Weinstein's lawyers to go after a very neutrally written news article. That is pretty shocking.

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

Another factor: a big chunk of Tesla's income (26%) is from businesses in China. That's not a good thing against the backdrop of a slowing China.

[Melissa Chan @melissakchan]

Certain China watchers lambasted the lab leak theory as absurd, attacking those in our community who entertained it as conspiracy theorists, and jumbled that with fomenting anti-Asian hate. Two years later, based on old school forensics of CCP documents: https://t.co/oy72mtss7Z

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

Surprised, surprised?

[Bethany 貝書穎 @BethanyAllenEbr]

In May 2020, Kaiser Kuo, longtime cohost of Sinica podcast, told his newsroom that “the United States government is orchestrating the protests in Hong Kong through funding and training provided by the National Endowment for Democracy.”

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

Not bad

You Be the Ump 6/7
✅✅✅✅✅✅⚪️
https://t.co/MTGaJNmK7l

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

看圖說故事，老胡想看或是瞄到了胡春華被槓掉後非常不爽，準備再看一次然後被栗戰書阻止。習就叫人把老胡請出去，離開前老胡可能順便問候了習的家人，非常和諧

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

遠離姨粉，一生平安

[Guoguang Wu / 吴国光 @guoguang_wu]

都说推特上乌烟瘴气，我上推不到一个月，确实也看到了一些。但我也遇到了不少有关怀、有思想、文明理性的推友。不少人在到处寻找中国的希望。那么，中国的希望在哪里？我看，不在宋平，也不在李克强，更不在江泽民。希望在桥上！希望在这里！2/n

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

@che_huai Got to look at the bright side when you are a consultant selling the ideas, right?

[Li Pik Sing @Pik_Sing]

Interesting angle but I'm not really persuaded by it. The technocrats matter only when political leader is willing to listen to technocrats. See what happened to big tech.

[Ruihan Huang @ruihan_huang]

STEM technocrats no longer concentrated only in provincial leaders: 7 of the 24 new Politburo members are from “emerging tech” that China will prioritize in the next 5 years while Chen Xi was the only one in the 19th PB. Read our analysis @MacroPoloChina https://t.co/SMk0WbaRqg