Scott

Just got my wings. Ready to tweet.

[UP @UnpluggedTesla]

An open offer to Tesla: We fully support putting Cybercab first, and we’d be glad to take the Cybertruck line off your hands.
We’d fund it with a consortium of investors and run it at no cost to Tesla’s floor space, headcount, or focus. All of that goes to Cybercab. Cybercab gets first call on battery cells too. We’ll wait our turn.
Tesla gains incremental profit: a license fee, plus FSD and Robotaxi network revenues on every vehicle built.
We’d build the Cybertruck, a three-row CyberSUV, and an unmanned CyberCargo hauler. More autonomous miles, across every surface of this planet and beyond.
Worth a conversation?

[Scott @pmoonglider]

For starters, you’re basing it on the $60k Cybertruck, the model sold for a very limited time. Already attempting to skew the numbers.

If they can sell it at a $10k margin on average across the models, 70k vehicles is $700M in profit. That doesn’t account for the non-tangibles like brand awareness.

All you’ve quoted is the price for Cybercab. Just because you can produce something at $18k, doesn’t mean you can make more money than something priced higher. Some people can’t make money on an item priced at $5.

If they could produce 1B Cybercabs tomorrow, they haven’t made money. Let’s say each ride averages $18. They each need to do 1,000 rides to break even. That’s 1 trillion rides. But it doesn’t account for maintenance. And electricity to recharge them. And liability if someone is injured as a passenger or pedestrian or someone in another vehicle it hits. All things you now have to account for that you didn’t with a straight vehicle sale.

It’s not nearly that cut and dry just because “it costs less to make”.

[Scott @pmoonglider]

Also, the expectation was set unrealistically high for a vehicle at that price range. Many companies have higher-end models that make much less profit but they still make them. Ultimately, I think he’s greatly overestimating what Cybercab is going to do, and greatly underestimating the damage being done with such abrupt changes in direction.

[Scott @pmoonglider]

Asking AI is stupid because I asked it and it said it would have moved it to lower production but not stopped it. Sure he could make something more profitable. But it doesn’t factor in brand recognition, loyal fans, and a lot of other factors.

Was it necessary to make the Cybertruck bulletproof? Was that maximizing profit margins? Of course not. Yet he did it because it’s “badass and super cool”. Those were his words.

[Scott @pmoonglider]

@TesCalendar1 @Catch23x Nah he was right, bad take.

[Scott @pmoonglider]

@jwolfgram @mrfundman He has 187 likes so apparently some people do in fact care.

[Scott @pmoonglider]

@DeanoRousselle @mrfundman

[Scott @pmoonglider]

@elonmusk You didn’t make the Cybertruck bulletproof because it was the smartest move from a profit-maximizing standpoint. You did it because it’s “badass and super cool”.

Like the Cybertruck.

Don’t lose this part of yourself.

[Scott @pmoonglider]

S and X I get because they’re largely doing the job of what the 3 and Y do. They’ve also run a long time. Cybertruck is a different segment. So is a large SUV. It also bring a lot of innovative technology and only ran 3 years. With where it was priced, it’s just never going to do 250k/year.

[Scott @pmoonglider]

@mikepat711 @RuffBuffet I get it and I think long-term it will be a successful play. I’d just like them to maintain focus on both and not completely pivot away from consumer vehicle innovation before the world is ready.

[Scott @pmoonglider]

Absolutely. I got an M3P after my brother got an X. My dad just got a Y because of it.

More expensive versions are always going to sell less. Most brands have cheaper lines and more expensive “premium” models or brands.

Elon makes a lot of wildly innovative decisions to make his companies so successful. But he’s also been way too aggressive with a lot of predictions of capabilities and timelines. As a long time investor I think he’s mistakenly pushing a majority of his chips into Cybercab while pivoting away from personal vehicles far too soon.

I’m also getting concerned the way he pivots so quickly. Cybertruck was the best thing ever. It only ran for 3 years. Promises of renting your car as a taxi look gone. Even the fleet thing probably won’t happen. Why would it if he realizes all that does is cut into Tesla’s profit margin?

[Scott @pmoonglider]

Simple and cheap lol. No way. There’s a reason you don’t find taxis or Uber drivers in those areas very often. Yes Cybercabs will be cheaper and could travel at lower cost to use areas. But so cheap that they could flood these areas with them to make them available at a moment’s notice? While accommodating for heavily demanded times? And different vehicle types needed? There’s nothing cheap about that. They’ll either sacrifice convenience or cost efficiency.

[Scott @pmoonglider]

JUST because it sells cars? No. It’s worth that because of the technology in those cars, FSD, the electric charging network, innovation ability, substantial lead in the electric vehicle segment, etc. And sure, part of that value exists separate from cars. So the car part is obviously not the only part of the equation. But it’s also not ZERO part of the equation as you imply, let alone holding it back. Remove the cars, and you remove a lot of Tesla’s value, at least today and in the near future. Almost all of its customers exist BECAUSE they value the vehicles Tesla produces.

Elon notoriously overestimates abilities and timelines. I say that as an investor and fan of his. But it’s reality. One day, cars may be a small or no part of Tesla’s business. But that’s not happening anytime soon. Pushing it too fast risks alienating the fans that made Tesla what it is and pushing them back to other manufacturers.

[Scott @pmoonglider]

@cybrtrkguy

[Scott @pmoonglider]

@niccruzpatane Stay a hero @elonmusk. Continue the Cybertruck. Don’t become the villain.

[Chuck Cook @ChuckCook]

Please change your mind. Cybertruck is what we want to live on. Cybercab won't haul my bees. I still need a tool that also will drive me to the airport.

[Scott @pmoonglider]

The Roadster will never be built. If the last one wasn’t, this one definitely won’t be. Zero chance.

And I highly doubt this would be more profitable. More profit per vehicle sure, but an extremely small number sold by comparison. Especially given the bad will created in the last round.

[Scott @pmoonglider]

@elonmusk Elon you love Cybertruck. You’ve made others love it. Please keep it going another few years. You will still make plenty of profit.