Luca Pompili

natural gas analyst | founder and developer @gasalytix

[Luca Pompili @pmplcu]

A sharp drop of ~3.5% on #natgas means that yesterday's rise was all TA, rebalance of positioning, options and OI. Not fundamentals at all.
I guess it happens when big players shifts positions and if TA is this important in such a situation (flat weather in June + prod and import balanced with consumption and exports via pipeline and feedgas) might make other things more relevant such as technical analysis.
Price is sitting on EMA 20 and 100 in 1D chart but I believe this won't hold at all as price broke below EMAs in 4H and got rejected in 1W chart at $3.300, right on EMA 50 and 100.
Extended range is gaining a few TDDs compared to last weekend's cycles but still kinda flat in 2m temperature anomaly. Yesterday's rise could have been the last rejection before going widely below $3.000 if res/com won't change due to increase in temperature and if daily balance keep it stable.
Tomorrow's storage report should be neutral bullish but as I said other times it might not effect much natgas price, at least not in high time frames so it could make natgas price jump a bit and that will be useful to make a decent short entry for the summer.
Happy to have a discussion in the comments about this ☀️

[Luca Pompili @pmplcu]

@Paulina10064934 yeah I do

[Luca Pompili @pmplcu]

Today #natgas opened with a gap down around -1.5%, then continued sliding to roughly -3% before NY open. From there it reversed all the way up ~4% and is now trading around +1%.

Prod and imports/exports lean bearish, feedgas pushing back toward ATH after the late May/early June dip. Res/comm at 9.2 Bcf/d, slightly below last year's same week ~9.6 Bcf/d, nothing unusual for mid-June and not a market mover.

With fundamentals broadly neutral to bearish, the ~4% reversal likely comes down to weather (rising TDDs in today's 00z cycle) and technicals, shorts covering and fresh positioning coming in.

[Luca Pompili @pmplcu]

@aedyalex They are both open.
Right now the June 1 short is at +53% and June 12 short is at -8.5%.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

TRUMP DECLARES IRAN DEAL COMPLETE, AUTHORIZES TOLL-FREE OPENING OF STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND IMMEDIATE REMOVAL OF US NAVAL BLOCKADE, DECLARING "SHIPS OF THE WORLD, START YOUR ENGINES. LET THE OIL FLOW!" - TRUTH SOCIAL

[Luca Pompili @pmplcu]

As you can see from the retweet below, the last weather run before market opening is bearish on US and EU ens/ensAI models.

In addiction to this data I am also sharing 4 weekend forecast drift charts, one fore each weather model.
It's very useful to check the degree days trend 2 cycles per day from Friday 12z to Sunday 12z.

On Friday I called a gap down and I also increased my short on #natgas with a second position (https://t.co/7JRvqFetmR). We'll see in less than a hour if I was wrong or right.

[GASALYTIX @gasalytix]

June 14 12z #natgas

- Trend vs 12H:
GEFS -0.49
AIGEFS -2.30
EPS -2.97
EPS AIFS -4.26

- CDD Population Weighted
- TDD Anomaly vs 30yr Normal
- NOAA 6-10 | 8-14 temperature outlook

[Luca Pompili @pmplcu]

June 14 00z 2m temperature anomaly on EPS, EPS AIFS, GEFS #natgas

[GASALYTIX @gasalytix]

To have a clearer view, here's the Run-over-Run Delta charts for EPS vs 12H, 24H, 36H, 48H. #natgas

[Luca Pompili @pmplcu]

In my experience flat or slightly bullish/bearish weekly storage reports don’t effects much the price direction on #natgas.
Is not all about storage reports tho but if anomaly keeps flat and TDDs won’t rise much due to expected heat then price will probably keep it’s trend which is bearish.
Also the storage report is on Thursday so we have 3 full trading days before a possible slightly bullish report and many weather runs ahead. On Monday, natgas is very likely to gap down. Maybe during the next week price can retest some resistances but this might be the week with price <$3.0 imho.

[Luca Pompili @pmplcu]

@CommodityMad Prod above 111Bcf/d after many weeks.
Feedgas also rised alot since the dip at 16Bcf/d tho. Now is above 19.
Res/com demand not much because of mild temperature anomaly and DD drops on major wx models.

[Luca Pompili @pmplcu]

I just increased my #natgas short by opening a second short trade on cash.
I am expecting a gap down on Monday open.
Now I have 2 short trades on natgas cash.
The first short opened on June 1st is currently at +57%. Happy weekend!

[Luca Pompili @pmplcu]

I just opened a short on #natgas cash.
I sill have my 3 longs on BOIL opened on May 6, May 20, May 22 but as soon as NY opens I will close all of them in profit (unless natgas drops -50% in next 3 hours 😂)

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran now also rejects Trump's claim that "we have a deal in which Iran won't have nuclear weapon," saying the current draft keeps the nuclear program completely untouched with no new commitments regarding not building a nuclear bomb, enrichment or uranium handover to the US, per IRNA.

The draft also requires the US to pressure Israel to completely end the war in Lebanon, release $24 billion of frozen funds, pay Iran $300 billion as an "investment fund" for war reparations, lift the US naval blockade, release all sanctions, and accept Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. These are Iran's conditions for the US to accept, only then will Iran sign the agreement.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

IRAN'S IRNA: NO AGREEMENT IS MADE REGARDING THE NUCLEAR FILE IN THE CURRENT MEMORANDUM

IRAN'S IRNA: NUCLEAR TALKS WILL TAKE PLACE WITHIN A 60-DAY PERIOD AFTER SIGNING

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran rejects Trump’s plan of a weekend deal-signing ceremony with Vance, saying any plan about signing in Geneva, Switzerland or a face-to-face meeting is nothing but a “mistaken understanding of US proposals and wishes,” due to the absence of a final deal, per Fars.

[Luca Pompili @pmplcu]

I think the same... weird timing with SpaceX IPO, especially from Trump.
In the past weeks Trump has demonstrated that is not smart playing against him even if physical crude contracts were way higher than paper.
If Iran rejects Trump's claims on US-Iran deal oil will rally fast

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

This is completely false. All reports claiming a deal has been reached, including Trump's claims yesterday are market manipulation ahead of today’s SpaceX IPO. Iran has explicitly rejected that any deal has been finalized.

[Luca Pompili @pmplcu]

@Holy_Helicity @andrepaltry Wow. Very spot on.. brent -4.3% now

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

*TRUMP: US TO HIT IRAN TONIGHT, TAKE KHARG ISLAND AT SOME POINT

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran denies Trump's new claim that he spoke with top Iranian leaders to "end tonight's bombing" or had any message exchange regarding a ceasefire, calling it "pure falsehood," with Iran "currently delivering a decisive response to the US attacks," per Tasnim.

[Luca Pompili @pmplcu]

@Konstantin15637 @gasalytix personally i don't think so

[Luca Pompili @pmplcu]

Can't wait to start learning fundamentals and see how price really reacts to real data on oil instead of headlines. $90.000 support on brent is holding. I am trying one last "big" long trade. If it goes bad I just stick to US natgas as I have more data to work on #oott