Position Journal

I journal on my stock positions before buying. Mag7 Product leader. Concentrated portfolio and evidence-based research. Follow along on my transparent journey

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

Ladies and Gentlemen, I crossed over 1,000 followers🚀🎉🎉

I'm genuinely excited about the milestone and appreciative of the community that helped me get here.

As a recap of what this account is about and who I am:

- I post evidence-backed theses on stocks before I buy them. I want you and my future self to see what went through my head when I made the decision.

- My goal is to be a voice of transparency, grounded assessment and reason. I made this account partly to combat the many accounts on social media that only hype stocks, pump and dump, shill and all while charging you monthly fees.

- Posting actual positions is crucial. I see too many people on X stating they're buying $100K of this and $500K of that, without receipts. I post my positions and % of portfolio the stock occupies openly.

- Performance is important, but I don't want it to become my identity. My 3Y cumulative is >250% (vs SPY 86%) and annualized averaged >50%. It is not as impressive as other X accounts, but with me you know exactly how and why I got there, with nothing hidden behind a paywall or cryptic messaging.

Welcome and follow along the journey!

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@bigern_ern @Rivian_DD The last I remember was RJ saying it’s too early to share demand forecast in their last earnings call. I hope that with time we’ll get more clarity though, can’t let shareholders go blind on numbers

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

Upcoming catalysts that I believe may be not priced in for $RIVN

-Management announces their fully sold out for R2 in 2026

-$250M from Uber post launch in SF and Miami

-$1B from Volkswagen later in year

-Autonomy progress updates: point to point (hands/eyes off) by 2027

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@Rivian_DD I'm good with whatever approach they take, be it specifying that 2026 production is fully sold out or updating reservation numbers -- bottom line is we should be in for some great and easy marketing wins

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@FirstSquawk That's funny. I would love to see their books to see if they're also selling aggressively or accumulating.

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@alegcan Ha, love it. Contributing back to the company's revenue!

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@CoinbaseDuck I wish I had more cash to deploy. Trying to keep Coinbase at around 15% of portfolio

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@alegcan Agreed, many things are not being taken seriously right now, including Robotaxi launch, licensing out the zonal architecture and autonomy software and I'm not even going into their Mind Robotics spin off. It really is a year for me to accumulate Rivian this year

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@dare_darr3n It does seem like we're establishing a new floor now, which is very uplifting

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@dare_darr3n I wouldn't be surprised if we got a major hedge fund initiate a position, word travels around Wall Street first before it makes headlines. Did a quick Grok search and did not find any public confirmation of a new position or new price upgrade

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

$COIN

Coinbase has about 57% of its revenues tied to trading and Bitcoin. An investment into Coinbase means you have exposure to Bitcoin, so if it goes up, stock goes up.

But it’s not just a crypto play, that’s too short sighted

My thesis is that Bitcoin and crypto needs to survive just long enough until @coinbase executes on:

-scaling x402 transaction volume to support the agentic economy
-expanding Coinbase One as a challenger to Visa and Mastercard
-compete against Robinhood with futures, prediction markets and perp trading alongside stocks
-further embedding of stablecoins across the suite of products to generate interest

So not only will I benefit from Bitcoin as a tailwind (if this four year cycle materializes) but also will gain from the above being executed by Brian Armstrong and team

[Ryan @DodgysDD]

I am literally SHAKING after finding this almost like someone is going to hunt me down after I hit post...

I am not sure if this is public info but bitcoin cycles are PERFECT to the exact day

ATH run from 2014-2017: 1064 days
ATL run from 2017-2018: 364 days
ATH run 2018-2021: 1064 days
ATL run 2021-2022: 364 days
ATH run 2022-2025: 1064 days

Currently based off this sequence we will continue to go down on bitcoin probably from $20,000-$40,000 and bottom out around October 5th, 2026

The chance this is completely random is less than 0.000001% there's just no way

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@adamshuaib Near impossible to implement in big tech. Someone will inevitably pull you to the side to ask you to shut the fuck up (diplomatically of course).

Then that outlier talents spark is extinguished and we can go back to shipping garbage

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@LimestoneHQ Love it. But near impossible to do this at scale.

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@rpnickson This is all true. But the end result will be shit that’s nowhere near production ready. You’ll need a few days of iteration, testing and validation just for one feature or function, depending on the complexity. If Claude could do what you evangelized here, it’d be a 10T company

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@citrini Most of the data can be scraped via common crawl which if an LLM uses it’ll end up outputting racist, homophobic and straight up garbage. There’s weights that’s given to sources like for example making sure a reply or comment on Reddit has X amount of upvotes before using

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@ChairmansLedger Mistake we make is pattern matching. Tying back an imminent crash to some metric or event. When in reality it’s so much more complex. Every crash’s primary reason is expansion of supply of credit, but if the catalyst to a crash (eg bank defaulting) doesn’t come, then no crash

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@bennybigbull If you sold the top last week it’s highly likely you’ll miss out months or years of gains. Even missing the strongest 1-2 days is a huge opportunity cost. It pays to hold and do less

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@zerohedge @epictrades1 We’ll be fine.

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@0xDamien Bears always have the most compelling arguments, they serve a function in finance society of taking a sledgehammer to your thesis. It’s important to listen to them as they help refine your entry/exit strategy. But if you listen too much, you lose money always

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

I actually really enjoy X as well. What started out as a friend recommending me the app turned it into me putting out all my thoughts on paper to look back on and learn from others. What’s interesting about learning from others is that it’s not the niche tickers but it was seeing into their perspective and mindset and how they approach things. I picked up quite a bit on what to do and not to do

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@alojoh That looks like just any other IPO