Pranjal Sahai

Built things that worked. Now studying the systems that don't.
Founder @The_Backchannel

[Pranjal Sahai @pranjalised]

Regardless,

Optimism is by birth right and all shall have it.

[Pranjal Sahai @pranjalised]

When your favorite people come together…

[Amit Varma @amitvarma]

I'm thrilled to announce Watching the Wheels, a new show I am co-hosting with @srajagopalan & @pranaykotas.

They're two of the smartest, funnest people I know. It's going to be a ride!

Our pilot episode has just dropped: https://t.co/iGjOve2ySl

Please give love! 🙂

[Pranjal Sahai @pranjalised]

As India’s defence exports boom, what about the democratic guardrails?

A piece I recently wrote.

https://t.co/ezf9kxSzaE

@FORCEmagazine @TakshashilaInst @WarOnTheRocks

[Pranjal Sahai @pranjalised]

Hypocrisy is the grammar of international politics

[Aviva Klompas @AvivaKlompas]

Question: If the targets struck by the United States and Israel in Iran were military, nuclear, and regime-linked facilities, what exactly is the $300 billion reconstruction fund going to rebuild?

[Siddharth's Echelon @SiddharthKG7]

@ndtv @sidduu96 It was supposed to be like this before British & us cleared it. Restore that.

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

As the US wages war on Iran & dismantles every institution it created — History already has a verdict

Historians at @CFR_org ranked the 10 greatest foreign policy decisions America ever made

Every. Single. One. Is the opposite of what's happening right now

A Thread 🧵👇

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

@aravind Ground war is a strategic disaster dressed as an option.

Special ops are too risky, coastal seizures too costly to hold, full invasion is Iraq × 10.

The US needs a victory, but Iran only needs tomorrow.

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

Pakistan once again out manoeuvres India in diplomacy.

Major Non-NATO Ally of US,
Defence pact with Saudis,
Seemingly better relations with Iran than india's

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

Capitalism is mutating into 3 species.

Model 1 — The American Mutation:

Corporations have captured the state.
Elon Musk ran DOGE. CEOs sit in the Cabinet. Capital is the government now.

Model 2 — The Chinese Inversion:

The state has colonized the corporations.
Jack Ma disappeared for 3 months after criticizing regulators. Alibaba got fined $18B.
Every private company in China exists at the pleasure of the Party.

Model 3 — The European Mirage:

The state as a neutral referee.
Beautiful in theory.
But here's the catch: There no growth attached to this model. At least so far. Europe hasn't produced a trillion-dollar company in 30 years.

In a world where the US-Iran war is now causing stagflation across all three blocs — which model actually survives a real crisis?

The one where capital runs the state?
The one where the state runs capital?
Or the one where neither can move fast enough?

[Pranjal Sahai @pranjalised]

@The_Backchannel For the Europeans, WW2 happened in Europe.

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

Indian Ocean is heating up, but it's not the first time

In 1942, the most powerful naval force ever to enter the Indian Ocean, pointed directly at India

Admiral Nagumo — the same man who commanded Pearl Harbor came with 5 fleet carriers and 4 battleships

Churchill called it "the most dangerous moment of the war"

Not D-Day. Not the Blitz. Not the U-Boat campaign

Thread👇🧵

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

After IRIS Dena, the conflict again returns to the Indian Ocean.

Iran targets Diego Garcia with ballistic missiles after UK approved US to use the base to target Iran

The missiles were intercepted by a US navy destroyer in the Indian Ocean.

This is farther than the previously believed strike range of Iran's ballistic missiles.

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

Rupee has lost 9.3% against the dollar
Brent crude has surged 60%

A compounding double shock on a country that imports 88% of its oil.

The government is holding petrol prices steady for now. But at $112/barrel and ₹94 to the dollar, the effective market cost of a litre has jumped from ₹95 to ₹123.

A price hike isn't a question of if. It's a question of when.

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

Kharg Island: The "Forbidden Island" at the Heart of Iranian History

A tiny coral outcrop in the Persian Gulf — barely the size of a third of Manhattan — yet one of the most contested pieces of land in history.

Here's the story of Kharg Island.

A thread. 🧵👇

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

The just UK agreed to let US use British bases to strike Iranian sites targeting Strait of Hormuz - BBC

Unconfirmed reports suggests the US has asked permission from India to support a military asset that will be used to bomb Iran from Western India.
In bureaucratic terms it means an interpretation of the LEMOA.

Looks like US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln wants its pantries refilled.

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

https://t.co/YgEHQzD0T5

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

Meanwhile, the location of the French carrier Charles de Gaulle was exposed in the near Cyprus after a naval officer logged workout on his Strava profile.

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

Iranian missile to the #F35

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

A full update. 🧵🔽

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

The tweet that finally spooked the markets.

Eqypt has ordered businesses to close early

Bangladesh has ordered early, extendesld holidays

India has seen a run for LPG gas.

The costs of the war are already breaking the global economy

Full story here-
https://t.co/5ipjAg3yMO

[The Backchannel @The_Backchannel]

As I said, No party in this war really wants it to end soon.

- Saudis & Emiratis - Want to see end of Iran

- Israel - Netanyahu's 40 year old wet dream is total Iranian destruction

-Iran and US - Don't have a feasible offramp

Check out the full thread
https://t.co/yCcUvEe1YF