Captain Hindsight

Perpetual Beta,Impulsive reader. Product guy. #tech #Investing (Views expressed are mine and not of Employer)

[Captain Hindsight @prashantghabak]

Blog Update: One the best life decisions I made: Quitting News and one of the best books I recently read. Hans Rolsing's 'Factfulness'
https://t.co/BVVX35orv9

[Captain Hindsight @prashantghabak]

Wrong side driving is like a pandemic in Bangalore. Having stayed in Mumbai, haven't see this level of disregard to safety ever. Very scary.

[DriveSmart🛡️ @DriveSmart_IN]

Wrong side entry on NICE Road !!

[Kunal Shah @kunalb11]

It’s been a minute.

2015–2018
- Exited FreeCharge. Spent time learning and investing.
- Pondered about: Why can't trust be rewarded? Started with $1M of personal capital.
- Launched CRED to reward people for paying credit card bills on time.

2019–2025
- Built a system run by a team that values ownership, judgment, and craft.
- Grew from 0 to 17M members by aligning incentives with behaviour.
- Built several products during COVID lockdowns.
- Raised $900M+ from global investors. Did 4 ESOP buybacks.
- Made Indiranagar and IPL ads slightly more interesting.
- Received a full stack of regulatory licences.
- Lost 35 kilos.
- Scaled from 0 to ~$325M ( ~₹3,200 crore) in annual revenue across payments, lending, insurance, commerce, wealth, and credit cards.
2026
- First profitable quarter (yet occasionally asked what our business model is)
- Raised another $900M from Meta in primary and secondary capital.
- Announcing our 5th ESOP buyback.

Today

CRED is ready for its next phase. I am stepping back and @miten steps in as interim CEO, partnered with an incredibly talented team. He has been heading strategy and finance and suffering me since 2020. I’m stepping away from the operating role and will continue as a shareholder. My commitment doesn’t change. Just the role.

Extremely grateful to our members, partners, regulators, and investors who made this possible. And to our board, Shailendra, Micky, Saurabh for their extraordinary conviction.

Team CRED, I’ll still expect you to be a 10x version of yourselves.

As for me, I’ll be joining Meta to lead WhatsApp globally.

Meta comes in as a minority investor in CRED. No access to member data.

While it’s come very far, the delta between WhatsApp today and its full potential is massive. I look forward to working with Mark, Chris, and the leadership across Meta for the next step in WhatsApp’s journey. Will, thank you for scaling something the world relies on quietly, and for making this transition smooth.

Onwards.

[Steph Zhang @steph_zhang]

https://t.co/soMlXS55jU

[Giga Based Dad @GigaBasedDad]

100% accurate LOL

[Krish Ashok @krishashok]

India has a strange blind spot when it comes to eggs. For starters, we have, against all common sense, declared it non-veg, which automatically comes attached with moral baggage, and then on top of that, even in families that eat meat, the idiotic idea that eggs are “heating” (taseer) reduces its daily/weekly consumption.

[Ankit Sawant @SatanAtWink]

She's the hero Bangalore deserves, & also the one it needs right now.

She’s a silent guardian, a watchful protector, a dark knight against the society uncles who are going to learn the hard way what happens when they over reach their non-existent owner powers

[Captain Hindsight @prashantghabak]

@AdhityaIyer Sounds eerily familiar! 🤣

[Captain Hindsight @prashantghabak]

This quote summarises his tenure as a reluctant politician for me. One can argue if this is the right way to be a leader, but no one can deny the good that he did for the country and the grace with which he served her.

[adhi | StoriesDotFun 🌸 @AdhityaIyer]

Slightly delayed tribute...

Every 90's kid and younger owes a part of their lives so significamt to this man, that they may never fully realize. He showed a miserably failing ultra socialist and religious country the way and beauty of capitalism. As a Finance Minister, his legacy cuts across millennias in India's vast history.

Dignified in glory, dignified in moments of shame. MMS was a good man and that turned out to be his biggest asset as well as liability.

RIP MMS ji. Even in your final farewell, you chose to leave silently.

[Roger Federer @rogerfederer]

Vamos, @RafaelNadal!

As you get ready to graduate from tennis, I’ve got a few things to share before I maybe get emotional.

Let’s start with the obvious: you beat me—a lot. More than I managed to beat you. You challenged me in ways no one else could. On clay, it felt like I was stepping into your backyard, and you made me work harder than I ever thought I could just to hold my ground. You made me reimagine my game—even going so far as to change the size of my racquet head, hoping for any edge.

I’m not a very superstitious person, but you took it to the next level. Your whole process. All those rituals. Assembling your water bottles like toy soldiers in formation, fixing your hair, adjusting your underwear... All of it with the highest intensity. Secretly, I kind of loved the whole thing. Because it was so unique—it was so you.

And you know what, Rafa, you made me enjoy the game even more. 

OK, maybe not at first. After the 2004 Australian Open, I achieved the #1 ranking for the first time. I thought I was on top of the world. And I was—until two months later, when you walked on the court in Miami in your red sleeveless shirt, showing off those biceps, and you beat me convincingly. All that buzz I’d been hearing about you—about this amazing young player from Mallorca, a generational talent, probably going to win a major someday—it wasn’t just hype.

We were both at the start of our journey and it’s one we ended up taking together. Twenty years later, Rafa, I have to say: What an incredible run you’ve had. Including 14 French Opens—historic! You made Spain proud... you made the whole tennis world proud.

I keep thinking about the memories we’ve shared. Promoting the sport together. Playing that match on half-grass, half-clay. Breaking the all-time attendance record by playing in front of more than 50,000 fans in Cape Town, South Africa. Always cracking each other up. Wearing each other out on the court and then, sometimes, almost literally having to hold each other up during trophy ceremonies.

I’m still grateful you invited me to Mallorca to help launch the Rafa Nadal Academy in 2016. Actually, I kind of invited myself. I knew you were too polite to insist on me being there, but I didn’t want to miss it. You have always been a role model for kids around the world, and Mirka and I are so glad that our children have all trained at your academies. They had a blast and learned so much—like thousands of other young players. Although I always worried my kids would come home playing tennis as lefties.

And then there was London—the Laver Cup in 2022. My final match. It meant everything to me that you were there by my side—not as my rival but as my doubles partner. Sharing the court with you that night, and sharing those tears, will forever be one of the most special moments of my career.

Rafa, I know you’re focused on the last stretch of your epic career. We will talk when it’s done. For now, I just want to congratulate your family and team, who all played a massive role in your success. And I want you to know that your old friend is always cheering for you, and will be cheering just as loud for everything you do next.

Rafa that!

Best always, your fan, 

Roger

[Captain Hindsight @prashantghabak]

@AdhityaIyer @solana @superteam Congratulations! 🥳

[Alex Lieberman @businessbarista]

Quite possibly the most unhinged Linkedin update I've ever seen.

Former co-CEO of FTX heads to federal prison today to serve 7.5 years.

But not before he drops this banger on social.

[Captain Hindsight @prashantghabak]

Handwritten note >> Apple Notes >> google sheet in that order

[Rohit Chauhan @rohitchauhan]

I wrote the post below in Jan 2018

I ran the numbers again and surprisingly got the same results. 23% of the 3820 companies with market cap < 3000 are selling at 50 PE or higher

Against this, only 7% of this universe has achieved a growth of 25% over the last 10 year period. This means that 3 out of 4 companies in this space will disappoint

https://t.co/IuvxYSREnR

-------------------------------------------------
When I look at companies which are priced at lofty multiples, I try to break it down to the first principle of investing – The value of an asset is the sum of its discounted cash flow over its lifetime

A company with a high multiple, is not necessarily expensive if the company can grow its free cash flow for a long period of time. This means the market ‘assumes’ that such a company has a sustainable competitive advantage and a large opportunity space. Please note use of the word ‘assume’. The market is not some “All knowing” entity which can see the future. It is just the aggregation of the combined wisdom (or madness) of its participants

The market on average and over time gets the valuations right, but not always.

As I look at several companies in the small cap and midcap space now, I am left wondering if investors really understand the implications behind the valuations. A company selling at a PE of 50 will need to deliver a growth of 25% for 10 years to justify the price. In order to make any returns for an investor buying at this price, the actual growth will have to be much higher and longer.

How many companies are able to deliver such growth rates for so long? Let’s look at some numbers from the past

In the last 10 years, we had around 233 companies in the sub 3000 cr market cap space, deliver a growth of 25% or higher

That’s around 6.2 % of the small/ mid cap universe. As the market cap/ size increases, the percentage of companies which can deliver this kind of performance only shrinks.

How many companies in the above space currently sport a PE of 50 higher? around 22% or roughly 675. So, 3 out of 4 companies in this group of ‘favored’ high PE companies are going to disappoint investors in the coming years in terms of growth

In other words, if you could buy all these ‘favored’ companies (greater than a PE of 50), you have a more than a 50% chance that you will lose money. Why would you take such a bet?

All investors in aggregate are taking this bet assuming individually, that their ‘chosen’ companies will not be the ones to disappoint. Of course, every individual thinks he or she is smarter, more handsome or than the crowd (also called illusory superiority).

The odds are against everyone being right. So, it makes sense to be cautious and do your homework well enough. Some of these companies could turn out to be the bitcoins of our market: assets with promise but without cash flow. In such cases, the end result is likely to be unpleasant.

[Captain Hindsight @prashantghabak]

Placed order. Having read your previous book, really looking forward to this one!

[adhi | StoriesDotFun 🌸 @AdhityaIyer]

Hello Good People of Twitter 🌸

My work of 4+ years is now LIVE on Amazon India. Global will take a few more days. We need to make as many sales as possible in the first 1 week to rise up in visibility climb high on the bestseller rank. We have assigned no budget for marketing and rely on organic sales from well wishers like you to make this happen. 🫰

Please click the link below and order a copy? If you are ordering multiple copies in the same house, please make sure they are from different Amazon accounts and IP addresses(maybe one order can be from wi-fi and the other person can order via data). Let me know when you order! Share a screenshot perhaps? Love to see it and share on Social Media :)

https://t.co/TRFkCWd054

Loads of love. Thanks in advance! ♥️

[Captain Hindsight @prashantghabak]

Early into season, but Zirkzee looks like a really good signing. Great physical presence and link up play. #MUFC #SOUMUN

[Captain Hindsight @prashantghabak]

Do you have money?

[Kunal Shah @kunalb11]

More Money. More Problems.
Not anymore.

[Captain Hindsight @prashantghabak]

@AdhityaIyer You are referring Indian market but iPhone prices in US and EU are highly competitive

[Governor Dill @TheGreenOldDill]

Definitely this…

[Captain Hindsight @prashantghabak]

😂😂

[AB⚕ @AbsoluteBruno]

Im crying bro, he might be on to something 😭😭😭
https://t.co/CniG695yUO

[pAgaL_P₹oj3ct @HoeZaay]

Spirit of Mumbai