Pratik Patel

Pushing Medical Innovation by day and developing workforce housing by night. Stock Market and hiking enthusiast

[Autism Capital 🧩 @AutismCapital]

🚨 NEW: New Harry Potter trailer just dropped!

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

@ankurnagpal Please send

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

@MollySOShea Interested

[Yishan @yishan]

There's actually a really really ugly truth inside this tech-right/maga-right H1B issue that almost no one has touched.

Are you ready? No one is going to like this.

Let me first set up the framing a bit.

Tech-right wants Top-0.1%+ global-level geniuses. Ok, fine, tech wants to grab every genius in the world for the USA.

There is a separate issue of - let's call them "technically-literate workers" - roughly in the 40-90% percentile. We could call them "mids" but it's not exactly right because it does extend up to 90-95% percentile.

The program for this calls it "high-skilled immigrants" but in reality it extends pretty far down to "mid-skill" and is being systematically defrauded to bring in Actually-Incompetent People, and this is a grift that's cheating both native-born Americans and the immigrants themselves.

It also legitimately brings in some high-skill immigrants. Looking at the numbers, it appears to be 50% legit and 50% totally-corrupt. That's not a good percentage. The 50% legit is bringing in people in the 80-95%-tile range ("high but not genius") and the 50% corrupt part is bringing in people in the 40-80% range ("mid to somewhat not").

Maybe you have a quibble but I'm pretty sure I'm broad-strokes on target, so stick with me here:

I want to introduce a key concept, which is "jobs that American companies need done, for which there are qualified Americans but not enough Americans want to do them."

Some of these jobs are like "accountant," which happens to qualify for H1B treatment.

But to make this more clear, let me go lower: the job of strawberry-picker.

This not a high-skill job, or a mid-skill job, it is a hard labor job. Young Americans don't want to do this. They choose not to.

(If you have a problem with "they choose not to" then go back to your feminism wage gap debate and how women get paid less because they "choose not to" take jobs that pay more with high stress. "Choose not to" is already something you accept when it leads to uneven social outcomes)

Well, America still needs strawberries so companies hire immigrant migrant laborers. Today we don't get complaints about this on X because no one is like "I'm from Appalachia and went to a top-tier school and the farms I applied to hired migrant workers who are less qualified than me to pick strawberries" because that guy didn't want that job.

I am using this example because hard labor jobs are ones that Americans definitely do not want to do, and I am using it to highlight the fact that there are MANY "mid" jobs that require some computer-work that many Americans don't really want to do but which need to be done and they end up getting filled with H1Bs.

Think of this as "grunt knowledge work."

What we are ostensibly trying to solve for is that there are a lot of these mid jobs, and we want native-born Americans to do them. (And that part of doing them actually is going to be needing to pay more, like at oil-rig levels, and this may be a problem - but let's let the Leftists fight that one for us)

But the point is: we (Americans!) want those jobs, stop giving them to foreigners!

Those jobs aren't done by (or need) O-1 geniuses, but they pay good money, that money should go to native Americans.

We have not gotten to the dark punchline yet, so don't get upset yet if you have some problem with a detail in this setup above.

Here is the dark ugly truth:

All of these jobs are going to totally eliminated by the end of the Trump administration and done by AI.

The tech-right knows this. The tech-left knows this. Sam Altman, much hated and so misunderstood, definitely knows this and has been trying to save you all by normalizing the idea of UBI because he can tell that obviously the AI wave is going to crush everything.

Last week's o3 announcement indicated that we have an AI within shooting range of PhD-level humans. Whether it's completely there or not, it means we're very very close to AI that is as good as the Top-0.1% immigrants. The O-1 guys are not safe. It costs $5000 to ask it a single question today but in 5 years that'll be fifty cents.

EVERY SINGLE KNOWLEDGE-WORK JOB YOU ARE FIGHTING OVER WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME TRUMP FINISHES HIS TERM.

The entire debate here over immigration is a nothing-burger. I'm sorry. I'm very sympathetic to you heartland white dudes in IT because I grew up in Minnesota but everyone in tech knows this.

Tech is trying to hire global-level geniuses because that's what drives its industry but the monster wave that's going to make all this pointless is that none of these H1B jobs are going to exist in 4 years. At all.

No, you will not have a job telling the robots what to do. A single (maybe-)human CEO will be sitting there saying, "Get this done" to the AI employees.

Ironically, it WILL be the physical jobs that will last a bit longer (except that the physical robots are coming too), and I don't want to talk my book too much but I'll digress a bit here: I told you all that the future is in tree-planting.

But the dark core here is this:

Everyone mid, and even a large portion of geniuses: if you're exchanging your brainpower for money - AI is going to eat all that up within the next few years. Immigration as a debate just doesn't matter. The same companies that exploit immigrants for money will quickly switch over to AI as soon as it's cost-effective.

You are arguing about immigration because it's part of your tribal affiliation to argue about immigration. I respect that. I get it. You gotta fight for what's yours.
Maybe you're going to win the argument. It doesn't matter. Because at some point before Trump leaves office you may very well be standing shoulder-to-shoulder with your fellow human, Steve and Arjun both storming the datacenters with pitchforks.

Now, tech still has the opportunity to bring forth a great and grand future for all.

Yes, AI can do labor for all of us. But the benefits have to be broadly-distributed, and we have to reconceive of how we think about work and labor and society. Maybe we'll navigate all that successfully. But that's another issue. You may want to talk to the Leftists about their ideas on how to do that.

But in the meantime, the dark truth you need to know (and which isn't being openly acknowledged, weirdly) is that the very same thing that makes those H1B jobs something you are so passionately fighting over is the very same thing that makes it so that AI is going to completely eliminate them within a few years.

Be ready. 🤖

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

@preshdkumar Where can I get this?

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

@JTMartingCRE Please share

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

Hey #FinanceTwitter friends! I'm working on a trading-related idea and could use some honest feedback. 😊

Please take this short survey to help me out: https://t.co/a6W8wwNC33.

Your input means a lot! Feel free to share with others too. Thanks! #StartUp #StockMarket #fintech

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

@andruyeung Interested

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

@elonmusk should sell twitter and buy $SIVB so he can actually control every startup in SF.

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

Great kick off with @Jason and @FounderUni. Excited to see what we can build together!! #jasonshand

[Technically @readtechnically]

If you’re a non-technical startup founder or product manager, you’ll want to check this out!

We released a database of common tech terms like API or data warehouse, explained quickly and simply.

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

@MichaelMOTTCM Can you do this for the Nasdaq

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

Very proud to be part of the @ProsciaInc team today. Check out our big announcement! https://t.co/MyvNdNzBXd

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

@kritishgl @chamath

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

Does anyone else still feel uncomfortable when they have to cough in a public place?

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

@DanLenz14 @SievaKozinsky It’s built deep in the Patel foundation

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

In short, unleash the data, and Web3 will improve patient centricity across the healthcare system.

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

Working at a medical device startup I've witnessed the struggle to collect the necessary data to build meaningful products.

Web3.0 promises to unleash health data.

🧵

[Pratik Patel @pratikpNY]

With access to large sets of patient data, app developers will be able to create new and innovative ways for patients and providers to access and transfer data and pull health insights from data.