Predictbook

Your go-to source for all things prediction markets. Powering @PB_Signal

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

I found a way to make 23.76% on Polymarket

In the 2026 World Cup winner market, top 8 sum up to 80.8c.

Each of those contracts pays out exactly $1 if that team wins the World Cup.

So if you buy Yes on all 8, you've spent 80.8c, and the moment any one of those 8 teams lifts the trophy in July, you collect a full $1. That's 23.76% in 6 months.

Try getting that from a savings account.

Why does this gap exist, and why hasn't it been arbitraged to zero?

Because it isn't actually free money. Those 8 teams are not the entire field. There are 48 teams in this World Cup. The market is telling you that there's roughly a 19% chance the winner is nobody on that list (Morocco, Croatia, USA, etc.).

But let’s be honest, neither Morocco, Croatia, nor the USA will win the tournament, so this is essentially a risk-free trade.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

@BullTheoryio This is a boomer take.

Prediction markets are eating the gambling companies left and right due to their simplicity and the variety of market options, which the latter do not have.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

@Polymarket The same thing was in 2000, when "everything is becoming a dot com trade"

Remember how that ended?

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

@cryptomanran @RobinhoodApp Money. The answer is money.

If it's their chain, they can capture all the fees and maybe even sell transaction/wallet info to others, since they require KYC.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

@WatcherGuru No wonder.

This generation got it all.

The 2000 crash. The 2008 crisis. COVID in 2020.

A dollar today buys half what it did 20 years ago, and other countries got hit far harder.

Everything's expensive, wages haven't kept up, and now AI is coming for the jobs that are left.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

Our boy @nursexxl is giving you free alpha.

Instead of losing money on vibetrading, this is what you should do.

You should be patient and find mispriced events like the one below.

[nursex @nursexxl]

Lionel Messi already scored 8 goals and 9th worth only 67% on Polymarket

Argentina's next opponent is Switzerland and favorite is almost clear

If Messi doesn't score them then he can score in the next game vs England

Bought some shares here cause 67% looks too mispriced

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

@nursexxl @Polymarket @PolymarketSport This is a solid analysis!

Looks like an asymmetric bet.

At 69c, that's a 45% return in less than a month

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

We analyzed every Spain vs Belgium match ever played.

Here's why backing Spain to earn 66.66% is almost a guarantee.

1. Spain hasn't conceded a single goal in 5 World Cup games. Belgium's plan on Friday is to defend and hope.

2. Spain owns the tightest defense left in the tournament while Belgium, for all its firepower, has kept two clean sheets in six and needed a last-minute VAR penalty just to survive Senegal.

3. Rodri and Pedri decide the tempo of every game they play, and Belgium knows it. Their own game plan is to sit compact and counter through Doku. But you can't counter a team that wins the ball back in five seconds, and De Bruyne is 34 and can't pick a pass he never receives.

4. Spain has beaten Belgium in six of their last seven meetings, 16 goals to 3, and hasn't lost to them since a penalty shootout in 1986.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

I found a way to make 23.76% on Polymarket

In the 2026 World Cup winner market, top 8 sum up to 80.8c.

Each of those contracts pays out exactly $1 if that team wins the World Cup.

So if you buy Yes on all 8, you've spent 80.8c, and the moment any one of those 8 teams lifts the trophy in July, you collect a full $1. That's 23.76% in 6 months.

Try getting that from a savings account.

Why does this gap exist, and why hasn't it been arbitraged to zero?

Because it isn't actually free money. Those 8 teams are not the entire field. There are 48 teams in this World Cup. The market is telling you that there's roughly a 19% chance the winner is nobody on that list (Morocco, Croatia, USA, etc.).

But let’s be honest, neither Morocco, Croatia, nor the USA will win the tournament, so this is essentially a risk-free trade.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

One of the best arbitrage opportunities we have ever seen.

Will Samuel Alito retire by December 31?

Buy YES at 18c on Kalshi
Buy NO at 72c on Polymarket

Total: 90c
Spread: 10c
ROI: 11.11%

[Predict @PB_Signal]

ARBITRAGE ALERT | Polymarket × Kalshi | POLITICS

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

YES Kalshi @ 0.18
NO Polymarket @ 0.72
Spread: 10%

Join @Predictbook Telegram channel for more. Link in bio.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

A Polymarket trader, Bertapotamous, won $188,969.46 by betting that Ronaldo would cry.

He started buying "Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?" after the other traders had dropped the price from 68c to below 20c.

He had 147 separate fills over 2 days and accumulated 189,064 shares at an average entry price of 24.5 cents.

After 2 UMA disputes, the Oracle ruled the market as a YES, and the market pumped to 100c.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

ImJustKen @Domahhhh just made $152,847 betting that Keir Starmer would be out.

While everyone was saying "he'll survive," he was loading up YES shares on "Starmer out by June 30, 2026" back when the market was pricing it at just 13c.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

@shtanga0x @Polymarket Completely false

These photos were used during the UMA discussion, and they ruled it a YES.

Initially, it was a NO because nobody saw the tears, but after these photos came up, they changed that.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

Aaaandddd... we were right.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

We analyzed every time Ronaldo cried on the pitch to capture a 58% return in 1 month.

Polymarket is pricing Ronaldo crying at the World Cup at 63%, which is mispriced.

Cristiano Ronaldo has cried on the pitch or bench at least 7 times in his career.

From the very start, Ronaldo’s relationship with big games has been emotional.

As a teenager in 2004, he broke down in tears after Portugal lost the Euro 2004 final at home to Greece.

In 2008, on the biggest club stage of all, he scored in the Champions League final, then missed his penalty in the shootout and cried on the pitch even though Manchester United eventually lifted the trophy.

For most players, tears are reserved for truly catastrophic moments. For Ronaldo, they show up whenever the stakes collide with his standards.

Euro 2016, early in the final against France, a knee injury forced him off on a stretcher, and he cried openly as he realized he couldn’t physically drag Portugal to the title. Then, almost 2 hours later, he cried again on the touchline, this time with unfiltered joy, when Eder scored in extra time, and Portugal finally won their first major trophy.

Qatar 2022, after Portugal’s shock quarter-final elimination to Morocco, he walked down the tunnel in tears during what many believed would be his last World Cup.

In the years since, age and context have only made him more volatile emotionally. At Euro 2024, he missed a penalty in extra time against Slovenia and broke down crying on the pitch even though Portugal went on to win the shootout.

A few months later, in the 2024 Saudi King’s Cup final with Al‑Nassr, he collapsed to the ground and sobbed after losing on penalties to Al‑Hilal.

He is 41, playing in a record 6th tournament, carrying the “last dance” storyline every time he steps onto the pitch. Portugal has already stumbled out of the gate with a frustrating 1–1 draw against DR Congo, where Ronaldo missed big chances, and the team never found top gear.

The market resolves on a simple condition: visible tears on the field or on the bench during the World Cup. It doesn’t require a final, it doesn’t require elimination, and it doesn’t care whether the tears come from pain, joy, frustration, or relief.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

You can earn 6.15% in 6 months by betting on human stupidity.

Polymarket gives Satoshi being unmasked by Dec 31 a 7% chance.

Buy No at 94.2¢, get $1 when the ghost stays a ghost.

12.4% annualized while S&P 500 boomers pray for 10.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

With the Netherlands and Germany out of the picture, the "risk-free" opportunity on this market dropped to 15.08% when betting on the top 6.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

After the controversial Ronaldo cry market, the Zelensky suit, and the mineral deal, this is the next Polymarket bet where most people will lose money.

Each of those disasters had the same anatomy. Traders bet on the question they thought they were answering. The rules answered a different one, and resolution wiped out everyone who never scrolled past the title.

The Russian parliamentary election market is next in that lineage, $14.4 million of volume and counting.

On the surface it's a no-brainer. United Russia holds 321 of 450 Duma seats. Seeing it priced at 55%, with New People, a five-year-old party, polling 13%, at 39% to beat it, looks like the market has lost its mind.

Then you read the rules.

The market doesn't resolve to the party that wins the most seats. It resolves to the party that gains the most seats compared to before the election.

This is a completely different interpretation from the market's title. And, like it or not, many will fall for the trap and lose.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

Polymarket traders believe Vladimir Putin has a 10% chance of not being president of Russia by December 31.

The only ways this market resolves as a YES are a resignation, a coup, or a funeral.

Do you really think that's even remotely possible? We don't.

Putin has run the country for over two decades, cleared the constitutional runway to stay until 2036, and shows no sign of stepping aside or falling over.

So we buy NO at 90 cents on the dollar, and while we wait for the obvious to become official, the market will pay us 3.25% on our position for the privilege of holding it.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

@jacobosssss "AC is bad for the environment."

said Europe's rich while sitting in a room with AC at full blast.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

Kalshi just earned $879 million in fees over the last 6 months.

Annualized run-rate: ~$1.76 billion (or $1.7–2B+ with continued growth).

For context, that's roughly the same as the annual net profits of companies like:

• Dollar General (~$1.51B profit, ~$26B market cap)
• Lufthansa Group (~$1.5B profit, ~$14B market cap)

A prediction market platform generating fee revenue at the growth stage on par with the bottom-line profits of major established retailers and airlines.

If this continues like this, @Kalshi can easily start earning $10B in the next 5 years.

What do you think, @luanalopeslara? Is it a realistic take?

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

bro, someone stop @Kalshi, they are eating the whole prediction market for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.

66% of the market, $33 billion notional volume.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

@Bonnet657 Well, it's about interpretation, no?

Teary eyes vs crying is completely different.

We hope it resolves as YES, as we ourselves put on YES, but, like it or not, that's how Polymarket works. It specifically said visible tears

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

@nursexxl @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Although we would have wanted the market to resolve YES, since we bet on that side, there were unfortunately no visible tears.

Polymarket is very specific in its terminology.

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

@cryptomanran

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

@cryptomanran

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

@PredMTrader They will likely say Penaldo.

https://t.co/fWGWIbo9xl

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

We analyzed every time Ronaldo cried on the pitch to capture a 58% return in 1 month.

Polymarket is pricing Ronaldo crying at the World Cup at 63%, which is mispriced.

Cristiano Ronaldo has cried on the pitch or bench at least 7 times in his career.

From the very start, Ronaldo’s relationship with big games has been emotional.

As a teenager in 2004, he broke down in tears after Portugal lost the Euro 2004 final at home to Greece.

In 2008, on the biggest club stage of all, he scored in the Champions League final, then missed his penalty in the shootout and cried on the pitch even though Manchester United eventually lifted the trophy.

For most players, tears are reserved for truly catastrophic moments. For Ronaldo, they show up whenever the stakes collide with his standards.

Euro 2016, early in the final against France, a knee injury forced him off on a stretcher, and he cried openly as he realized he couldn’t physically drag Portugal to the title. Then, almost 2 hours later, he cried again on the touchline, this time with unfiltered joy, when Eder scored in extra time, and Portugal finally won their first major trophy.

Qatar 2022, after Portugal’s shock quarter-final elimination to Morocco, he walked down the tunnel in tears during what many believed would be his last World Cup.

In the years since, age and context have only made him more volatile emotionally. At Euro 2024, he missed a penalty in extra time against Slovenia and broke down crying on the pitch even though Portugal went on to win the shootout.

A few months later, in the 2024 Saudi King’s Cup final with Al‑Nassr, he collapsed to the ground and sobbed after losing on penalties to Al‑Hilal.

He is 41, playing in a record 6th tournament, carrying the “last dance” storyline every time he steps onto the pitch. Portugal has already stumbled out of the gate with a frustrating 1–1 draw against DR Congo, where Ronaldo missed big chances, and the team never found top gear.

The market resolves on a simple condition: visible tears on the field or on the bench during the World Cup. It doesn’t require a final, it doesn’t require elimination, and it doesn’t care whether the tears come from pain, joy, frustration, or relief.