"Optimus will use Starlink" -Gwynne Shotwell / @theallinpod / Sept 15
This is bigger than connectivity.
Part of the brain of Optimus is in Starmind.
Starlink is not optional. It is intrinsic, definitional, core to what Optimus becomes.
Starlink on Optimus could happen in one of two flavors: a scaled-down native Starlink terminal (active phased-array antenna) or 5G → Starlink.
Or both.
The interesting thing is that the network stops being something Optimus connects to.
It becomes part of Optimus.
$300,000,000 per month in added PROFIT coming soon to Tesla
7,000 Cybercabs per month and 3000 Model Y's added to the Tesla fleet each month + 3000 Cybercabs sold to third parties every month.
This is what 125,000 Cybercab Capacity gets you. (80/20 Cybercabs to Model Y's)
After 6 months $1.8 B per month Profit
After 1 year $3.6 B per month Profit
After 2 years 7.2 B per month Profit
After 3 years 10.8B per month Profit
This assumes no additional product beyond 125,000 per year.
But the goal is 2m per year.
And you think Tesla is not worth $3000 per share right now?
Take 10.8 B per month X 12 or $130B per year bottom line profit just on Robotaxi. 50PE is 6.5T
Now add in way more Robotaxis
Normal sales of cars, trucks, battery storage, services
Maybe a few Optimi
Are you aligned with my thinking or did I get the math wrong?
I think people are seriously underestimating what Cybercab means for Tesla’s future.
For the past few years, everyone has been waiting for a smaller, cheaper Tesla to restart growth. And as that car failed to arrive, the assumption became that Tesla had lost its way or abandoned its high-volume ambitions.
I think Tesla is laying the foundation for something much bigger.
My read is that Elon made a deliberate decision to give up the obvious next product—a cheaper car with a steering wheel—and concentrate the company’s engineering talent on Cybercab and FSD.
That takes conviction. You’re walking away from a product people already want, accepting slower growth, and putting enormous pressure on your teams to deliver.
But I think Elon understands something that gets overlooked: a large company can have all the talent and resources in the world and still produce mediocre products because its attention is scattered. Remove the backup plan, and suddenly the entire company has to make this work. That kind of urgency can produce extraordinary innovation.
And here’s where I think this gets really interesting.
Once Tesla proves Cybercab’s software, manufacturing, and vehicle architecture, it can build an entire lineup on that foundation. Small cars. Larger cars. SUVs. All designed around the passenger. All benefiting from simpler systems, fewer parts, and a fundamentally different way of manufacturing. That’s the path I see back to millions more vehicles a year.
Cybercab is the first step in that future. The work going into it today could make the vehicles that follow dramatically better and more affordable.
Yes, Tesla is paying a price for this decision right now. But I think the focus it creates gives Tesla a much stronger shot at leading the next era of transportation.
Five or ten years from now, I suspect we’ll look back at this period and realize how much of Tesla’s future was being built while people were declaring its growth story over.
I break down the reasoning and the path ahead in my new video.
@Jason to Elon regarding Tesla Optimus: "I saw a video and I said to him, is this CGI or is this real? And he said, no, this is real. They just sent it to me this morning. Optimus will be the best selling product."
This is a thread I did back in March on how EUV is used by ASML's lithography machine to make high tech chips.
Seems like Elon will be taking the approach of using a particle accelerator to do free electron laser lithograohy (how cool is that??!?), but this thread is a big help in getting a basic understanding of how the process works today.