@cryptoklotz Agree. We're in September, the longer this month goes on with +ve PA, the more the "allocate in October people" start to panic - maybe towards the mid/end of Sept they realise allocating "early" is probably the best thing to do. So they allocate into 90K+ BTC
if y'all think these alt pumps are insane (incl eth, sol, largecap meme beta, new gen of memes, launchpads, etc)
BTC is still 50k below its ATH.
things are going to feel like a euphoric top by the time BTC is at 90k, let alone 100k or 120k
'raise targets' season.
@ZackPolanski@NormalIslandNws No one wants to sponsor you so you just leech from the state and avoid paying tax. Dodging council tax is such a brokie move, especially when you spend you whole life whining about inequality.
@ZackPolanski Posting this required data centres.
Running a country, healthcare system and businesses requires data centres.
Even little things like you buying a ticket to Boomtown to go prance around on stage spouting nonsense requires data centres.
TLDR on Warsh at Jackson Hole:
Nothing burger, told us nothing new other than pretending he’s serious about hitting 2% inflation target
(Just playing the politics to appear credible without having to actually hike)
Big risk event out of the way for markets
We can get back to buying Bitcoin and start challenging those big resistance levels ahead of 85k
LFG 🚀
A big part of what we do at LCC is try and help people capture the big secular trends
We get accused of being perma bears because we keep focused on the fundamental story alongside the currency debasement trade which will be a persistent tailwind to all assets over time
Bitcoin will hit $1mil at some point over the next 5-10 years (maybe sooner)
And people will miss it because at 65k they were waiting for 58k because their favourite influencer drew convincing lines on a chart
Now at 80k they’re waiting for 72k
Yet once it starts moving, it’s so hard to get long
80k entry or 60k will seem irrelevant once we’re at 1mio
In our careers, we’ve worked with some of the so called best hedge fund managers in the world who “trade” markets
Over that time, we’ve outperformed virtually all of them just by being long Nasdaq
Nasdaq over last 20 years has averaged 16% annual return
Global macro hedge fund on average have returned 5%
So global macro hedge funds massively underperform the market and yet traders on here think they’re going to be the exception and outperform
Time in the market beats timing the market every single time
The Bessent Put
Today the US Treasury doubled the size of its long-end bond buybacks, the day after the 30-year yield hit a 19-year high at 5.33%. The extra dollars are small. The signal is enormous.
For the first time, the fiscal authority, not the Fed, stepped in to defend the long end within 24 hours of the highs. There is now a put under the long bond, and the market has just been told the top of the range...
Look at the plumbing underneath it...
The buybacks pull old, illiquid bonds off dealer balance sheets and get funded at the front end with bills, which the banking system absorbs. Duration out, money-like paper in. Lower long-end volatility raises the collateral value of every Treasury in the repo system, which is itself a liquidity easing. And the QRA language quietly changed two weeks ago to allow exactly this.
It isn't happening in isolation. This month's joint yen intervention was about stopping Japan from ever becoming a forced seller of Treasuries, and the new dollar swap lines across Asia and the Gulf keep the region's dollar debts rolling, with China the ultimate beneficiary. A weaker dollar is the tool that brings the big foreign buyers, Japan and eventually China, back to the long end. Supply managed on one side, demand rebuilt on the other.
With a long end now potentially anchored, the steepening of the curve should come from Warsh, who will probably deliver his part of the grand bargain between the Fed and the Treasury.
All of this is to fund the hyperscaler capex along with government debt. For the first time since the GFC both public and private debt as a % of GDP are growing and both are vital.
This is the everything code fully at play and brings together many threads I've been talking about for the last two years. The debt must be serviced and liquidity, by whichever mechanism they can route it, is the method.
Financial conditions started easing through both legs at once today, and financial conditions are the first domino in the sequence we have been mapping all year.
To be warned this is not an instant liquidity flood happening right now. This is the entire scaffolding being set up for the much larger game. The Great Game is the funding of the aging population along with the funding of the new demographic of AI and robots. Both games are too big and too important to stop. The funding of the the intelligence build out is the most important game of all time. It is too big to fail.
The full Flash Update is coming for GMI and RV Pro members came out earlier today: the full mechanism, the 2011 and 1940s precedents, what it likely means for every asset class, and what would prove the thesis wrong.
Overall today was a big marker point on a story that I've been predicting for many years and have the receipts to prove it. The outcome is always MOAR COWBELL!
It’s obviously sad when anyone dies, whether it’s Jason Arday, Charlie Kirk, or anybody else.
It’s sad that he decided he had to take his own life, but the people with blood on their hands are those that propped him up and allowed him to lie and fraud for so many years to pedal their woke agenda, only to turn their backs on him when he was no longer convenient for their narrative. Those people should be ashamed, not the journalists who simply reported on his lies and plagarism.
@EricLDaugh@grok what’s the point in them doing this? Without a passport they won’t be able to travel to mainland Spain, so do they just want to stay in the enclave?
the 2021 NFT mania was the dot-com bubble of equivalent.
just like the tech wreck of the early 2000s felt like the end, but was actually the beginning and now the internet is everywhere.
NFTs were simply ahead of their time, the hype was real, the use cases weren’t ready yet.
the real unlock is RWAs and 2021 was the prototype, 2026 is the infrastructure.
its hard not to be a little excited tbh
This is what Zack Polanski has just posted on his instagram.
If I was to post anything as inciteful then I would expect to be arrested, and so should Polanski.