Philippe Bonnefoy

Absolute Return investor: fishing for alpha in seas of beta

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

That is NET after 2/20 and costs… so more like 18-20 gross. Almost no market beta, this terrific return is almost pure alpha… And let’s see your list of any funds that have this length of audited track record, then compare, and compare Sharpe & Sortino ratios. In Hall of Fame is #Renaissance Medallion Fund about mid-60s after 6/36…. several other years rock stars like Druckenmiller
+30% avg. (no down years)… #elliot #Singer #hedgefunds

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

as John Donne’s 17th‑century wording, is:
“…and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.

As we approach US midterm elections this autumn, the bell may toll for the US consumer, and ipso facto for the US equity market #Markets #equities #consumer

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

Marcus Aurelius’s line “Look beneath the surface; let not the several quality of a thing nor its worth escape thee…. “. This is an election year…. every effort will be made to keep the consumer confidence intact as consumer spending represents 65.%+ of GDP… add Government spending and… the reckoning will be postponed… for a while…. a bit of consolidation & digestion of higher energy prices…. then we probably head higher.. But….

[Mac10 @SuburbanDrone]

Today we learned that U.S. consumer sentiment just hit a new all time low.

A system of exploitation only works if you assume everyone else will be exploited. Until the day you find out you are everyone else.

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

@prince_mbambo @7signxx great - thanks for that - when was the F35 shot down, which as a Fifth Generation aircraft was the point of the completely incoherent post. The F15E is a 40-yr old aircraft… some fact checking would be advised before public comments

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

@prince_mbambo @7signxx when was the F35 shot down in Iran?

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

interesting to note the changes, a couple of shifts where one empire quietly absorbs another….

In 1818, Shelley published a strange little sonnet about a broken statue of Ozymandias (Ramesses II), abandoned in the desert.

On the pedestal, the king boasts: “Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!”—yet nothing of those works remains.

This visual tells the same story

[WOLF @WOLF_Financial]

Here’s how the largest economies in the world have changed over the last ~400 years

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

@EndWokeness ✅

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

Very Interesting #starlink #Elon_Musk

[Michael Nicolls @michaelnicollsx]

Starlink is beginning a significant reconfiguration of its satellite constellation focused on increasing space safety.  We are lowering all @Starlink satellites orbiting at ~550 km to ~480 km (~4400 satellites) over the course of 2026.  The shell lowering is being tightly coordinated with other operators, regulators, and USSPACECOM. 

Lowering the satellites results in condensing Starlink orbits, and will increase space safety in several ways.  As solar mininum approaches, atmospheric density decreases which means the ballistic decay time at any given altitude increases - lowering will mean a >80% reduction in ballistic decay time in solar minimum, or 4+ years reduced to a few months.  Correspondingly, the number of debris objects and planned satellite constellations is significantly lower below 500 km, reducing the aggregate likelihood of collision.  

Starlink satellites have extremely high reliability, with only 2 dead satellites in its fleet of over 9000 operational satellites.  Nevertheless, if a satellite does fail on orbit, we want it to deorbit as quickly as possible.  These actions will further improve the safety of the constellation, particularly with difficult to control risks such as uncoordinated maneuvers and launches by other satellite operators.

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

It is often costly to be early & wrong… but as Bernard Baruch said, “I made my money by selling too soon”. We surely have some room to move higher, but the air is getting thinner at this altitude

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

THE S&P500 7,000 MIRAGE

Wall Street is not telling you this.

The equity risk premium just inverted to negative 0.69 percent. Stocks are now mathematically expected to underperform risk free Treasuries.

This has happened exactly three times since 1950.

December 1999. October 2021. December 2025.

The first preceded a 49 percent crash and lost decade. The second preceded a 25 percent drawdown. The third is now.

Institutional cash has collapsed to 3.3 percent. Record low. Margin debt has exploded to 1.214 trillion dollars. Record high. Bank of America just triggered its contrarian sell signal for the 17th time since 2002.

The marginal buyer has vanished.

Maximum capacity. Minimum buffer. Maximum fragility.

The Magnificent Seven myth is cracking. Only three of seven are beating the benchmark. Amazon returned 6 percent. Apple returned 9 percent. The weakest performers in a cohort that drives 55 percent of index gains.

Meanwhile gold has surged 72 percent to 4500 dollars per ounce. The largest annual gain since 1979. Silver has exploded 165 percent to 76 dollars. Breaking 50 dollars for the first time since the Hunt brothers squeeze in 1980.

When stocks and gold hit all time highs simultaneously institutions are telling you something through the only language that cannot lie. They are hedging against the very currency their equity gains are denominated in.

The Santa Claus Rally just opened flat. A third consecutive failure would be unprecedented in 75 years of data.

Prediction: If it fails, Q1 2026 brings a minimum 15 percent correction as positioning unwinds violently into a buyer vacuum.

The 7000 threshold is not a target.

It is a test.

https://t.co/oRG386nyvv

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

Interesting wide ranging conversation #AI #tech #data from someone in the middle of the information & investment flows. Instructive to have him imply he invests across many companies as it can’t identify who the winners will be, and the boom/bust cycle of capex/valuations #GOOG

[AI Panda @AIPandaX]

Ex-Google CEO's BANNED Interview LEAKED: "You Have No Idea What's Coming

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

sadly missed, and always an inspiration

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

This actually works!

[The Persian Jewess @persianjewess]

After my parents fled the Islamic Regime in 1979, they found safe haven in Queens, New York.

That’s where I was born. In a tiny apartment in Queens.

My parents had nothing. Not money. Not connections. Not even the ability to speak English.

Unlike Zohran Mamdani, I didn’t go to a fancy private school. I went to a NYC public school that was so crowded there weren’t enough desks for each student. Half the time I sat on the radiator in the back of the room and took notes on my lap.

I rode the MTA bus home, while both my parents worked to put food on the table and rebuild their lives.

And they did rebuild. Because in America, and only in America, capitalism gave them a real chance to start again.

The people supporting Mamdani are just like him. A bunch of entitled rich kids who have no clue how lucky they are, and even less of a clue why they have been conditioned to hate America.

They don’t know what it’s like to buy shoes two sizes too big so you don’t outgrow them before the end of the school year.

To act as the translator for your parents at 6 years old.

To claw your way from having nothing to achieving something.

And today they celebrate, because they’re too dumb or radicalized or both to realize they’re falling for the same Islamist-Marxist lies that caused my parents to flee Iran in the first place.

All to destroy a city that was once a hopeful refuge for millions of people who just wanted a better life.

People like me and my family.

What a sad, sad day.

My heart is absolutely broken for NYC.

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

In the 1920s #Germany had debt it couldn’t pay. In the 2020s #Japan has debt it cannot pay, How do you dispose of a #government #debt problem? You erase its value. #debase the value of the currency create #inflation and the real value of your debt is decreased. You may negatively impact a lot of other things too. This play goes back before #Roman times.

[BTCPeakHub @BTCPeakHub]

@zerohedge Japan speedrunning Argentina's playbook:

📈 Print currency
📉 Devalue to boost exports
📊 Inflate away debt
🏦 Suppress interest rates

Nikkei +2040 isn't "strength."

It's capital fleeing yen-denominated assets into equities.

This ends one way. Watch. ⚠️

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

@nycsadgirl Quite Sweet

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

The AI crush of jobs enters phase 1. The job loss will likely be 2x this nbr. Great for profit margins but extremely challenging for workers to be redeployed.

Lufthansa Group has announced that it will shed 4,000 jobs by 2030 with the help of artificial intelligence, digitalization and consolidating work among member airlines.

#AI #Lufthansa #investing #EU #jobs #unions

[Compounding Quality @QCompounding]

“Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make my money studying natural stupidity. I sit on a lot of boards ….. I don’t have to watch Saturday Night Live anymore, I just sit in board meetings.” - Carl Icahn

[Gina Acosta @ginacostag_]

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s best career advice:

“Passion isn’t enough, you’ve got to endure.”

[Philippe Bonnefoy @psbworld]

Meanwhile… #risk off in #crypto land

[Jake Wujastyk @Jake__Wujastyk]

#Ethereum Undercut the VWAP to liquidate all the over-leveraged longs.

$ETHUSD