The Bitcoin price bottom only happens when…
✅ Short-Term Holders are in loss (this has already happened)
⏳ Long-Term Holders start carrying losses (this has not happened yet — this is when the real bottom forms))
Additionally:
🔴 The bear market only ends when the STH Realized Price falls below the LTH Realized Price.
🟢 The bull market begins when the STH Realized Price moves back above the LTH Realized Price, after the bear market has fully played out.
We track this with a dedicated chart to alert you when it happens.
Data > Narratives
@Alphractal
This is the bull case for Bitcoin by the way.
If Bitcoin sweeps the low, the pattern would look a lot like prior patterns by GOOG and NVDA.
I would assume that the rally would not result in a new all time high, but a macro lower high, before going to the 200W SMA.