Raja

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

*****We want to drive the follower count up for the Alphatica YouTube channel. It will help supplement costs for the platform at launch*****

Please repost.

We will have coverage on the following topics on our youtube channel. It will be a gold mind of information.

Macro / Fed / Rates Analyst
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Youtube: @Alphatica

$SPY $QQQ $IWM

[Raja @raaja_e]

@alphaticaio Indeed yes Mr. Aplha. Great calls and timing. Thank you.

[Raja @raaja_e]

@Mr_Derivatives one of my all time favorite too :)

[Raja @raaja_e]

@alphaticaio @X Brilliant call out! I took some puts right after and hedged. Thank you. I am only following your account for couple of weeks, but there were so many timely and precise callouts. Great work!

[Raja @raaja_e]

@alphaticaio Thank you for your balanced and data centric analysis, appreciate the effort and sharing insights.

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

A lot of accounts are calling a top. Here's why most are early and how you'll know when it's real.

A top isn't a price. It isn't a valuation multiple. It isn't a feeling. A top is a structural condition. And it can only be confirmed after the fact. What you CAN track in real-time is whether the conditions are stacking.

We monitor five:

1. THE FLOOR NARROWS

The GEX flip cushion is the structural insurance underneath the market. All cycle it sat at 8-10% below price. A crash needed to be 9% just to break the floor. When that cushion shrinks to 3%, then 2%, then 1%, the insurance is disappearing. Yesterday we watched it briefly shrink from 9.1% to 3.9% in one session. It recovered today. When it doesn't recover, that's the first warning.

2. THE FUEL RUNS OUT

The mechanical engine runs on put decay. 12M puts decaying daily force dealers to buy shares. When institutions stop buying puts, the fuel source dries up. The P/C ratio dropping from 2.61 to 2.12 over the last month is early evidence. Fewer puts means less decay means less mechanical bid. The engine doesn't break. It starves.

3. CORRELATIONS SPIKE

When everything becomes one trade, one catalyst unwinds everything. We track this daily with our correlation scanner. Average pairwise correlation below 0.40 is healthy dispersion. Above 0.55 is herding. Above 0.70 is liquidation. Right now we're at 0.37. The SPY-TLT correlation at the 100th percentile is the early flag. When the broad correlation follows, the diversification that protects portfolios collapses.

4. THE REBUILDS FAIL

Every selloff this cycle, the structure rebuilt within 1-3 sessions. May 15 gamma cliff: rebuilt in 3 days. May 19 NVDA selloff: rebuilt in 2 days. June 3 Iran shock: rebuilt in 4 hours with a new flow record. The afternoon institutional build showed up every single time. When the structure inverts and the afternoon build doesn't come, the recovery pattern is broken. That's the signal that the character changed.

5. THE MAGNETS DISAPPEAR

All cycle we tracked 10:1 and 16:1 magnet-to-accelerator ratios above price. The path of least resistance was always up because the magnets above vastly outnumbered the accelerators below. When that ratio inverts and accelerators dominate above price, the structural gravity flips from pulling the market up to pushing it down.

HOW THEY STACK:

One condition alone is a warning. Two is a watch. Three or more simultaneously is the regime change. Right now we have one: SPY-TLT at extreme correlation. That's a warning, not a top.

February to March was NOT a top. The market dropped 7.7%. Then every condition resolved. The builds returned. The floor held. The magnets reasserted. The engine rebuilt. Price made new highs. That was a pullback within a trend, not a structural top.

A REAL TOP looks like this: the floor narrows and stays narrow. The fuel thins and doesn't refill. Correlations spike and stay elevated. The afternoon build stops showing up. The magnets disappear above price. All happening together. Not one. All.

We track these five conditions every session. When they stack, we'll publish it the same way we published the rising wedge, the gamma cliff, and the correlation study. Before the event. With the data. On the record.

Until the structure breaks, every selloff is a dip within a trend. The day the structure breaks and doesn't recover, that's the top. Not a prediction. A structural diagnosis.

We'll know it when the data shows it. So will you.

$SPY $QQQ $VIX

[Raja @raaja_e]

@WalterDeemer Purely coincidental - you got a nice sense of humor Mr. Walter!

[Raja @raaja_e]

@3PeaksTrading Happy Birthday in advance Jason! Enjoy the time off!

[Raja @raaja_e]

@simon_ree @stevehou Very witty Mr. Simon

[Raja @raaja_e]

@3PeaksTrading Jason, Everything you post is welcome! Paying attention to each input and idea honestly. Thank you for the effort to share your insights and opinion.

[Raja @raaja_e]

@3PeaksTrading You are one of rational voices in finx to follow Jason, always analyzing objectively & data dependent. Thank you for sharing.

[Raja @raaja_e]

@VolSignals Thank you very much for sharing the insights with wider audience. appreciate the effort.

[Raja @raaja_e]

@BlueMoonTrades Stopped buying Nike because it doesn't last long like few other brands for the money it costs. Brand should represent some level of durability and trust..looks like Nike cares more about marketing and celebrity endorsements than quality of shoes sold to end consumers..

[Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts]

The 200-DMA Is Broken. Time To Panic?
Last week, the market broke the 200-DMA after a streak of 214 days. We look back at history and examine the difference in forward returns between sustained and brief breaks, and discuss how to navigate this one.
https://t.co/4uK8FweE9Q

[Raja @raaja_e]

@David_Tracey Thank you David. Fantastic week for us - you shared timely calls and levels for both 0DTE and swing. What I like more is the daily/weekly article sharing thought process and technical analysis teaching us to fish, appreciate the effort. Happy subscriber!

[Raja @raaja_e]

@Namzes_G Thank you Namzes, always appreciate your timely inputs to keep us on the right side.

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

I’ve been waiting last few months for signs that 3.5 year cycle has topped. We’ve been buyers of dips as models were bullish. It has changed in Feb when I posted that I went mostly cash and now all models I track are now on a weekly sell signal / bear regime.
-The last time we had a similar set up was Dec 2021 and we went defensive before the bear market which positioned us well to be buyers of stocks at bargain prices later in 2022. Now current 3.5Y cycle is peaking/rolling over - time to pay attention.
-I don’t like playing Monday morning quarterback so I try to give you my actionable primary roadmap a few months out and adjust along the way based on cycles, models, technicals etc. Saying something was obvious after the fact doesn’t help anyone.
-Below is my experimental $SPX composite leading indicator which I’ve been working on for several years combining various cross-asset signals. Not meant to perfectly time every micro move but can be used as a confluence for larger trend changes
-In Dec ‘25 I saw upside headfake move (UTAD in Wyckoff terms) in Q1 2026 and then rollover; now with more data coming in it’s suggesting a bigger decline in Mar-Apr - in line cycles/ models / TA
- $SPX is still only -3.4% below ATH so real correction hasn’t even started. When talking heads on CNBC start panicking it will be too late. Not trying to fear monger, just calling it what models are showing. Capital preservation is key.
-I take time out of my weekend to post this to open people’s eyes to a potential significant downside in the market and consider contingency plans. If you find it helpful and want to get more updates - please retweet.

[Raja @raaja_e]

@Mr_Derivatives looks like its burrowing to earth's core to get burnt..