1-13-26 The Reflation Trade Explained
Markets are priced for a perfect reflation outcome after three years of big gains. Everyone expects strong growth, falling inflation, and rate cuts at the same time.
In this Short video, I argue why these expectations may be setting investors up for disappointment.
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O que está ocorrendo na Bolsa e no Real?
Estou participando da maior conferência anual de hedge funds nos Estados Unidos. Gestores globais de grande porte e alta reputação têm apresentado posições relevantes em mercados emergentes, frequentemente via bolsa de EM (EEM), como uma das principais teses para este ano.
Essa rotação em direção a mercados emergentes vem ganhando caráter de consenso. Nesse contexto, o Brasil aparece como um dos principais beneficiados, sobretudo pela elevada liquidez, pelo baixo nível de alocação histórica e por valuations relativamente mais atrativos. O movimento observado neste início de ano é de natureza claramente global e não decorre de fatores específicos do cenário doméstico.
No plano internacional, observa-se uma inflexão marginal na tese de “US exceptionalism”. Gestores têm aumentado posições compradas em mercados emergentes tanto pelo racional cambial quanto pelo papel de diversificação de portfólio. A tese central é que o processo de diversificação para fora dos Estados Unidos, iniciado no ano passado, pode se intensificar ao longo de 2026. Importante destacar que não se trata de uma visão negativa estrutural sobre ações americanas, mas sim de uma expectativa de performance relativa superior dos mercados fora dos EUA.
BREAKING: The US Dollar tumbles to a fresh 4-year low after President Trump says the US Dollar is "doing great" and he is not concerned about its decline.
Most people don't realize what Trump just said:
For 12+ months, the US Dollar has been in a sharp decline, falling -10% in 2025 in its worst year since 2017.
Minutes ago, for the first time, President Trump commented on the decline in the USD:
"The value of the Dollar is great," Trump said.
This immediately sent the US Dollar another -1% lower, to its lowest level since February 2022.
Why?
It’s a clear signal that President Trump is willing to tolerate a weaker Dollar to push rates lower and boost US exports.
Own assets or be left behind.
This is SHOCKING.
The US dollar has crashed nearly 13% in the last 12 months and dropped below March 2022 levels.
This is one of the main reasons silver has surged 267% and gold has risen 84% in the past year.
Trust in the US Dollar as a Global reserve currency is fading fast.
Si la FED interviene el yen japonés, el dólar podría desplomarse hasta un -50%.
Esto ya pasó.
En 1985, el dólar estaba demasiado fuerte.
EE. UU. decidió intervenir junto a Japón y Europa: vender dólares y comprar otras divisas.
El resultado fue histórico. En los 3 años siguientes:
-El índice del dólar cayó casi un 50%.
-Todos los activos subieron en términos de dólares.
Si este escenario vuelve a ponerse en marcha, los activos en dólares podrían dispararse.
🚨 THIS IS AN EMERGENCY WARNING!
I do NOT want to SCARE you anymore, but I have to warn you one last time.
THE BIGGEST MARKET COLLAPSE IS COMING.
It will be a 2-3 times bigger DUMP than in 2008.
If you hold any assets and want to save your money, you MUST read this post.
Gold ATH: $5,100
Silver ATH: $117.36
Historically, metals pump like this right before equities CRASH because Big Money rotates into "risk-off" assets.
And that's just the beginning. Look at this:
– The U.S. debt crisis is intensifying to levels we haven't seen in DECADES, and the Government has no idea how to fix it right now.
– ~$10 TRILLION in debt must be refinanced at significantly higher rates over the coming year.
If the Fed prints this money, the dollar will CRASH even more.
If the Fed doesn't print it, real estate and stock markets will CRASH.
– The market is pricing in 2 cuts this year, but that won't fix the supply issue. So the Treasury has to flood the market with bonds.
– The BIGGEST market Shutdown is coming in just 3 days. It means total data blackout for the Fed. No data = No economic decision. It will lead to another market dump.
Do you see it now?
You have just a few days to get RID OF USD.
I have been in the market for over 10 years now and I have an exact strategy on how to protect your capital now.
Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON and I will post it very soon.
Btw, I will share it with people who comment "Strategy" here.
Many people regret not following me earlier...
🚨 HISTORY OF 2008 REPEATING!!
Gold hits an ATH at $5,097.
Silver hits an ATH at $109.81.
I don't want to SCARE you, but this is not a recession anymore.
We are on the verge of a HUGE COLLAPSE of the US dollar.
If you hold any assets, you MUST read this post.
Here's what's happening:
When gold and silver pump like this,
it means that big money is derisking their capital.
Silver pumped 7% in just ONE SESSION.
People are not buying metals because they want to,
they are buying because they are TERRIFIED of holding anything else.
And that's only the beginning.
In China, one ounce of physical silver costs OVER $134 right now.
In Japan, one ounce will cost you $139.
This is the biggest spread between paper and physical asset I have ever seen.
But once the market starts CRASHING, Big Money will be forced to sell papers to cover their losses.
It’s a forced liquidation before we go even higher.
The FED and US government are literally trapped:
SCENARIO 1
If Trump forces Powell to cut rates to save the crashing stock market,
Gold will hit $6,000 instantly.
SCENARIO 2
If the FED holds rates to save the dollar,
the real estate and equity markets COLLAPSE.
THERE'S NO GOOD SCENARIO...
This week will change the market forever, and you MUST be ready for it.
Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON, and I will keep you updated on everything.
I have been studying macro for 10 years and predicted every market TOP and BOTTOM.
Many people wish they had followed me earlier...
Brazilian stocks have finally broken out 18 years after their 2008 peak.
The P/E remains modest at 12 while the 3-month momentum turned positive.
A no brainer for me.
$EWZ
If the US Dollar closes red this year, it will mark its first back-to-back annual loss since 2006-2007.
When you zoom out, the "mystery" behind what's happening in gold and silver becomes obvious.
The denominator of ALL assets (fiat) is deteriorating.
Dollar Index Futures (DX) has been flirting with 18-year support for the past 7 months. I believe, Federal Reserve Open Market Committee next week could be a trigger for a major breakdown with DX initially headed to $85 and then $75. Coming dollar sell-off could be catalyst for a continuation of upside move in gold and silver...
Dollar Bears at Record Extreme
- Risk reversals the most negative/extreme since data records began (2011)
- Last seen in May 2025, and March 2020 extreme shock
- 1YR flipped bearish, last seen mid-September
With just 4 trading days left in the month:
The dollar index has broken below a major support level for the first time in 15 years.
The world is not positioned for this in my view.
The debasement trade is now well understood, but the next phase is a broad weakening of the US dollar relative to other fiat currencies.
What makes this moment especially important is the monthly close.
If the dollar finishes the month below this level, it could mark the beginning of a multi-year downtrend.