Neil Rafer

Building a portfolio of small models trained off of highly structured data, and helping app owners win market share in Gen2 of the iOS app wars in 2025-27.

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

Founders -- If you want to get grow EVA in this cycle, buy instances not tokens.

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

@VaibhavSisinty Those smart people aren't wrong. They are intentionally lying about job loss

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

Parenting milestone. My kid is swearing at the DMV website.

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

MX airport lounges during FIFA. "The lounge is full. There are no seats. Go on in!" #GDL

[dharmesh @dharmesh]

If you work in the software industry and have time to read only one long-form post today, read this one.

If you have time to read two, read this one twice.

Highly #recommend

tl;dr: Stay off the yellow brick road that the frontier model companies are racing down. There is plenty of opportunity to solve hard problems elsewhere. Focus on areas where you can build the system of work (workflows), capture compounding, non-public data and deliver deterministic outcomes that customers need.

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

@andrewparker Their numbers aren’t good enough for your sober suggestion.

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

The people asking you to sign petitions in the Powell Bart station or misrepresenting their position. They claim it’s a pro BART petition but the main backer is Chris Larsen, so that’s bullshit.

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

@jefielding No one is questioning whether or not it’s the relationship for the VC. Maybe the founder decided that this particular group was not worth it and that staying married to them for 5+ years is a bad idea. Maybe the person knows how to go out and do something better w/ little money.

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

@HarryStebbings "seemingly" is the key word here.

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

@meattle All the pixels are beginning to lose. It won’t be complete for years but it will be true first of the high value customers. You can thank all the agents.

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

“I brushed it aside,” Altman said. “Now I am awake in the middle of the night and pissed, and thinking that I have underestimated the power of [NB: other people's] words and narratives.

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

@andrewchen There needs to be an escape plan from all the tokens. It can certainly be delayed given how insanely the tokens are subsidized by the LLMs at the moment. However no escape hatch means a very quick sale or lousy outcomes.

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

@loganbartlett Did you take a look at the gross profit of today's rapidly building infrastructure instead of the revenue? That makes the situations look similar.

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

Where are the Claw-Era Investors? Have we learned nothing? https://t.co/24LjgsdHUW

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

@eldacantu How did you determine this statistic for your clickbait GDL article this morning? Please stop fear mongering. "Most gas stations remained shuttered."

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

@andrewparker I’m all for paying for instances not tokens (per my pinned tweet) but that avg dev isn’t only using “local” models in a reasonable timeframe.

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

Finally, he admits what the plan was all along. The moon's a massive treasure; Mars was death and defeat. https://t.co/Ea1B4eJmjs

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

There is a lot of completely rational talk about an AI Bubble, but it's not inevitable. #llm https://t.co/JECEW9DKTt

[Oren Michels @Michels]

Most leaders view AI guardrails as a set of handcuffs.
They’ve got it backward.
In the enterprise, guardrails aren’t there to stop people from doing things—they are there to give them the confidence to start.
Innovation doesn't happen when you give people unlimited freedom. It happens when you make them feel safe failing.
If your team is terrified of breaking a database or hallucinating a legal contract, they won't use the tools.
Build the fences, then let the horses run.
Great talking this through on the Call Me [Data] podcast - link below
#AgenticAI #Governance

[Neil Rafer @rafer]

@joshk I think transformer puns also belong on this list.