Nick Raffoul

Writer. Content Creator. Sports Enthusiast. Investor. Cookie Connoisseur.

[Overthinking The NBA @overthinkingNBA]

Dallas picking Morez Johnson Jr. at No. 9 was one of the most interesting wrinkles in Round 1.

I might be in the minority here but I liked the pick and the fit alongside Flagg. I also think it says a lot about how Dusty May valued Johnson compared to Lendeborg and Mara.

Johnson sacrificed offensively but still found ways to contribute to winning for Michigan. That’s a rare skill in and of itself, especially at Johnson’s age.

May witnessed those sacrifices first hand and the Mavericks front office is betting on his continued development under the very coach that unlocked his potential.

Johnson also showed growth in the shooting department, evidenced by his willingness to take shots from beyond the arc.

He attempted just six 3-pointers through the first 12 games but averaged over 1.0 3PA over the final 28 games of the season (10/29, 34.5%).

Johnson is only 20 years old with the skills and athletic tools to be a difference maker at the next level on both ends. He placed in the 100th percentile in our Athletic Score model and scored highly in our NBA Combine Translation model.

I’ve seen a lot of mixed grades for the pick, but to me, this is a big swing on a proven winner and team-first player with a ceiling as high anyone drafted after him.

[Overthinking The NBA @overthinkingNBA]

Looking at NBA Draft grades over the past few days has been dizzying. You’d think every single pick, player, and fit was a slam dunk.

Pretty sure @KevinOConnor gave A’s on the first 19 picks in the first round.

[Overthinking The NBA @overthinkingNBA]

With the NBA Finals over, the offseason is officially underway.

Introducing OffSZN, a new front office style game that allows you to take control of your favorite team.

https://t.co/21VDVjHlaf

Trade, Sign, Cut, and Draft players to turn your team into an NBA title contender. Every move gets graded and your projected record changes.

You're the GM now 🏀

[Fran Huzjan @FHuzjan]

We had so much fun building this! Really excited about the feedback

[Ben Pfeifer @bjpf_]

let’s attempt to solve the nate ament problem with @overthinkingNBA

[Ben Pfeifer @bjpf_]

Understanding Nate Ament
https://t.co/R5dz2Vztse

[Overthinking The NBA @overthinkingNBA]

@KevinOConnor @YahooSports Nice to see we had the right idea here:

https://t.co/smke0atZhF

Launched over a month ago... 🤐

[Overthinking The NBA @overthinkingNBA]

I guess we were ahead of the curve with Draft IQ.

https://t.co/JiaIjuigX4

[Alex Barutha 🏀 @BaruthaAlex]

(charts via @draftballr & @overthinkingNBA)

(video via @pitlessball)

[Alex Barutha 🏀 @BaruthaAlex]

Nate Ament is maybe the most polarizing prospect in the 2026 draft.

His box score says bust. There are scouts who think he's a steal.

One of them is very wrong.

He was hot and cold as a freshman. Who is he really?

Would you bet a lottery pick on it?

[QRGANIC @QRGAN1C]

@overthinkingNBA demon udeh and DEMON BEN HUMRICHOUS

[Commies4L @Commies4Life]

@DCSportsDre @Agrav82 I don't think that's the best way to view DP. To me, the best version of him looks more like taller Curry. This post does a good job explaining it. My differentiator is that AJ's game is very insular. DP's naturally open it up for everyone else.

https://t.co/UffrY4Fm7T

[Keep It Simple Scouting @KISSproductions]

Keaton Wagler’s FG% per shot distance vs other guards is super interesting to me. What stands out to you most?

Chart can be found on @overthinkingNBA website

[Keep It Simple Scouting @KISSproductions]

Labaron Philon’s self creation is pretty ridiculous. Shifty and efficient. Data via @overthinkingNBA

[Overthinking The NBA @overthinkingNBA]

There’s been a lot of talk about Darryn Peterson’s ceiling over the last few weeks but I’m going to explore a developmental path that I haven’t seen mentioned.

While it’s almost impossible to project how he’ll be used, I think the most interesting version of him might be something like a 6’5” Steph Curry, who also happens to be a plus-defender.

Peterson can play on and off the ball but his evolution as a movement shooter could be the most important development for his ceiling.

He has the chance to become a three-level scorer who can use his off-ball gravity to open up driving lanes for himself and his teammates. That’s the kind of rare skill that can offset some of his perceived playmaking deficiencies.

I understand that this is an aspirational comp. Steph is truly 1 of 1 as a shooter, especially with his ability to relocate and stress opposing defenses without the ball in his hands.

But if a team drafts Peterson as a point guard with this vision, he could become a similar threat. And if that happens, he’ll be one of the easiest players to build a contender around from this class.

[Utah Jazz @utahjazz]

Checking in with @bjpf_ as draft season approaches ⏳

#TakeNote

[Overthinking The NBA @overthinkingNBA]

Would love to see how people are using Overthinking the NBA and what everyone is building in the chart lab!

Would anyone enjoy a series of tutorials on each tool?

[Keep It Simple Scouting @KISSproductions]

I do not fear drafting Acuff because of his defensive profile. Offensively he’s one of the most gifted we’ve ever seen. Just need to surround him with off ball demons. @overthinkingNBA

[Bryce Cutler @_BryceCutler]

@overthinkingNBA Incredible, incredible stuff. I have an S/C and biomechanics background, so I have a great appreciation for a tool like this. I'll be using this as I finalize player evals before the draft.

Congrats on the great work!

[Arthur Salazar @tabeladode3]

@overthinkingNBA Amazing tool! I have been using a lot lately to get some extra stats. Congrats on the superb work.