Rami Mansour

🇱🇧 🇵🇸 🇸🇾 . Arab geopolitics. OSINT. @Princeton. All that blood was never once beautiful. It was just red.

[Salma @salma_daoudi1]

Rewarding Israel’s killing and destruction with an agreement that forgoes the right of Lebanese to justice and legitimizes occupation of Lebanese land, is of course going to embolden it further.

[Nicolas Sawaya @sawaya_nicolas]

I read the Lebanese-Israeli framework agreement carefully (see comments for full text). I break it down, article by article, below (pay special attention to articles 2, 4, 8 and 9).

Overall, just a terrible, shameful agreement, especially when the far better alternative of leaning into the US-Iran MoU was available (and we haven't even seen the "security annex" yet, which I'm sure reflects even more sovereignty-enhancing measures for the Lebanese govt).

Preamble and Article 1:

In essence, Lebanon agrees to recognize Israel, to end the technical state of war between them (ongoing since 1948), and pledges to normalize relations through future agreements. Keep in mind that normalization is only supported by a small minority of the country, with overwhelming opposition to it.

Article 2:

The sequenced process referred to in this article is Hizb disarmament first before Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory (that this is envisioned to happen in stages or via "pilot zones" makes no difference, as the sequence remains the same: first disarmament then withdrawal from a particular territory). This of course won't happen short of civil war.

Instead of leaning into US-Iran MoU that demanded Israeli withdrawal tout cours, the Lebanese govt has essentially legitimized occupation by making Israeli withdrawal contingent on Hizb disarmament (so no disarmament = continued occupation). This is also contrary to international law, which doesn't sequence withdrawal from occupied territory on disarmament of resistance groups. The Lebanese govt is willfully and foolishly throwing away leverage, because "sovereignty" apparently.

Article 3:

This article explicitly conditions reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure and return of civilians to their homes in any area under occupation on disarmament of Hizb and "dismantlement of their infrastructure" (to be executed incrementally via "pilot zones"). It's unclear who is doing the disarming and dismantling and how (the IDF, the LAF, or both in unison), but this should become clearer upon publication of the security annex; but see article 4 below.

Article 4:

Makes clear that the onus is on the Lebanese govt to "achieve the complete and verified disarmament" of Hizb. Again, this won't happen short of civil war, which Israel has been trying to foment in Lebanon since the beginning of the war.

Article 5:

We're supposed to believe that Israel has "no territorial ambitions in Lebanon", when several Israeli ministers and lawmakers have insisted otherwise, and Israel has formally conditioned their withdrawal from Lebanese territory on Hizb disarmament by the Lebanese govt first, which they know cannot happen.

Article 6:

Lebanese govt explicitly calls Hizballah military activities illegal and outside of the Law. This reiterates the govt's previous position, but by virtue of stating it within this broader Lebanese-Israeli framework, reinforces the view that the Lebanese govt is aligned with Israel in eliminating Hizb (as an armed actor).

Article 7:

Iterates the "right to self-defense" for Lebanon and Israel. We all know what the "right to self defense" means for Israel. They invoked their right to "self-defense" to commit genocide in Gaza, and had the temerity to invoke their right to "self defense" when Hizb recently killed 4 Israeli soldiers advancing within occupied Lebanese land to justify bombing dozens of Lebanese towns.

Article 8:

Notice how subtle but dangerous this language is in this article. The Lebanese govt is essentially affirming that Hizb poses a threat to Lebanon or to citizens of Lebanon. They've essentially declared Hizb, not Israel, as the enemy. Where does that leave Hizb supporters, which constitute a large segment of the Lebanese population?

Article 9 and 10:

The Lebanese govt commits to a "performance-based program" to disarm Hizb and accepts that any new US assistance is contingent on achieving milestones. This, apparently, is "sovereignty" according to the Lebanese govt. They're on probation and graduate only according to US (and presumably Israeli) performance reviews, with reconstruction funds and economic aid being dangled as carrots. Utter humiliation.

Article 11:

Intent is to strangle Hizb financially, with the US govt working with the Lebanese govt to ensure that.

Article 12:

Commitment to comprehensive "peace" agreement, which I interpret as a normalization agreement, although not crystal clear from this article. If so, this will be rejected by vast majority of country.

Article 13:

Another example of Lebanese govt volunteering to throw away any leverage by, for e.g., forgoing the option to accept the ICC's jurisdiction to investigate Israeli war crimes or to file formal complaints and letters against Israel with the UNSC.

Article 14:

The obligatory reference to thanking DJT

/END.

[Jad Chaaban جاد شعبان @JadChaaban]

Lebanon’s leadership, including a PM ex judge in the ICJ, just signed on an agreement with Israel forfeiting all rights to pursue the Zionists’ crimes in international courts…

[Assal Rad @AssalRad]

You are not the victims.

[Mehdi Hasan @mehdirhasan]

If this was any other country, it would be huge news, and most western governments would be loudly condemning it.

But it’s Israel so…

[Maya Mikdashi @mayamikdashi]

The Shia community in Lebanon is living through a Nakba. This is a war against Lebanon, but a primary target is that specific community. Any politician or pundit that does not acknowledge that fact is not being honest, and their dishonesty is as dangerous as it is myopic

[Adil Haque @AdHaque110]

IDF "soldiers shot a 16-year-old boy and then ran over his body with a tank, mutilating it.

"a 15-year-old boy holding a white flag — and his brother who came to his rescue, as well as their mother — were shot by .338-caliber Israeli sniper rounds from 200 meters away"

[Tehran Tadhg @TadhgHickey]

Imagine being Palestinian or Lebanese looking at this pure dystopian shit 😳

[Robin Yassin-Kassab @qunfuz2]

@IhabHassane It's stupid to say that Syria's revolutionary aims have been achieved. It's equally stupid to say nothing has changed since the days of Sednaya and barrel bombs. Hassan should stay and work for Syria while there's still a chance.

[Rami Mansour @Ramansour_]

@salma_daoudi1 احلى دكتورة مبروووووك

[lulu @weskastri]

the reason why Palestine isn’t being seen anymore because there’s barely any journalists left. 20% of Lebanon is now under Israeli occupation. 12 million people have been displaced in Sudan. Over 25 million people are facing acute hunger in Congo. Don’t stop talking.

[Salma @salma_daoudi1]

Really heartbreaking news. The NCMP has confirmed the death of Dr. Rania al-Abbassi’s children, after they were forcibly disappeared in 2013.

Truth is an indispensable step towards realizing justice, now needs to be followed by accountability, reparation, and non-recurrence.

[HatsOff @HatsOffff]

Entire families erased in Mashghara tonight

Not a single fighter. Just bloodlines

[Salma @salma_daoudi1]

The martyrdom of Fadi Almeghari is one of the tragedies I find myself unable to move past. Former child of Gaza who became a beacon of hope for the children of Gaza.

[أم شكردن @ZkakLBlatt_love]

I hate "Beirut is the switzerland/Paris of the ME" because it makes you subjugate yourself to this colonial psyche of Western dependence and approval. That, somehow, being the European twin city makes you worthy and valuable. All it does is humanises landscape. The people will-

[Grem @gremm2026]

Jolani really made a whole ass scamming scheme to encourage former regime generals to stay in Syria lol

[Hulk 🇸🇩🇵🇸🇸🇾🍉🍁 @SmartRandomGuy]

Qatar, Kuwait & Morocco refused to normalise with Assad when every other Arab government did. Syrians will never forget that

[Jihad Yazigi @jihadyazigi]

For the first time we have a clear understanding and a detailed breakdown of the structure, activities, economic assets and key decision makers in the Syrian Sovereign Fund. More in our lead article this week. @TheSyriaReport

[courtneybonneauimages @cbonneauimages]

A van carrying food and supplies was just targeted on the highway by an Israeli drone strike.

Living under occupation means that this can happen to you or any vehicle around you at any time. This has been going on for the last 18 months.

[Rania Khalek @RaniaKhalek]

It’s 9am in Lebanon and the Israelis just issued displacement orders for 6 Lebanese towns.

There is no ceasefire here.