One of the biggest mind-bends is this:
Atlassian, the creator of JIRA, founded 23 years ago is NOT profitable. This is despite generating $4.6B in revenue (!!)
Linear, founded in 2019, building “the modern JIRA for startups/scaleups” IS profitable.
Make it make sense
@Jonathan_Blow If your idea of programming is googling what you want to do +stackoverflow and pasting shit into your IDE until it work then LLMs speed you up
Otherwise they just create a lot of sneaky bugs for you to fix later
@wanyeburkett @fromavineleaf Building a foundation isn’t particularly difficult if you use ICF - I did it before/during undergrad as a summer job. Like building a big LEGO house
@tenobrus@duntsHat It’s not - depending on your age, you probably face the risk of the button (a one percent chance of one of the 20 people closest to you dying) approximately every 2-3 months
Still think button is bad but people have bad intuitions about tail probability
Some of them are simply not useful for deciding whether a relationship is causal - i'm thinking of analogy (this one was just never a good idea), strength (if anything, for modern problems, smaller effects are more plausibly causal), specificity (most diseases have multiple causes, and many exposures can cause multiple diseases - this one is just outdated), consistency (multiple estimates give us a better estimate of the association that is being estimated but is not really evidence for causality) ...
I just think in general they're a product of their time and the types of problems epidemiologists were concerned with then. Cutting some of the less relevant ones seems long overdue
@ggkuhnle@EpiEllie I think they should just be discarded at this point but Temporality at least can definitely bring definitive evidence against causality
@DeanBaker13 Hard to untangle the real cause here since the true answer to all of these “favors democrats” - need some contrasting statements where the true statement makes democrats look bad
@tunguz Not a criticism of the people doing that - just a symptom of someone overseas making decisions about what people need in a culture they don’t understand
@tunguz Probably - I spent a few months in Sudan in the 00’s and saw quite a few “emergency tents” being used to dry out donated grain to be used to make alcohol