Julian Ranger

Serial entrepreneur (STASYS, & others), solutioneer, engineer (CEng), future astronaut with Virgin Galactic - rugby, cricket

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

@JoshuaSteinman Allergic to raisins, currants and sultanas- but live grapes and wine. Go figure

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

@Rainmaker1973 A petrified tree trunk that is 240 million years old

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

@WorldByWolf @mattwridley Knock a 100,000 off immediately an debate is a £10B saving right there, with Another 100,000 over say 5 years. And then keep the pressure downwards.

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

@Nigel_Farage @Sozzinski We need a new countryside party to tell the city folk to go do one - country folk know how to manage the countryside, the greenery and the animals and we don’t need armchair city folk telling us what to do.

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

@Rainmaker1973 23

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

@JChimirie66677 I don't do politics publicly, but i stand with the Farmers on inheritance tax (I have posted on that previously) and these arrests are a horrendous abuse of power. The cities should be ashamed of their attitude to the countryside.

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

@ClarksonsFarm1 Invest Amazon Bitcoin

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

@Wisdom_HQ He lived, badly

He died, gruesomely

He married, bunny-killer

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

@Adam8Knight @Ed_Miliband It is worse that that @Adam8Knight What labour are proposing is not even technically (or behaviourally) achievable. So all that cost and pain for a nothing, no achievement, nada - a real net zero gain for everyone

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

@Sadie_NC 44 fun times!

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

If you'd like a nicely formatted Word version just DM me

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

You could subscribe to fancy financial news sites for analysis or you could use Julian’s budget bingo card below for what our beloved Chancellor’s budget will contain later this year – please enjoy.

(Compiled with a little bit of human intelligence backed by the services of multiple AI LLMs.)

UK 26 Nov Budget predictions
07 November 2025
11:42
UK Budget for 26 Nov 25: Plausible Revenue-Raising Measures (Prredictions as of 7 Nov 25)

This paper assess options reportedly under discussion for closing a fiscal gap near £50bn/yr. Figures are indicative steady-state yields; near-term takes can be smaller if phased.

Ranked Revenue Options (Updated with Latest HMT Modelling)
Rank & MeasureWhat might change (plain English)Why it’s on the table / signalsIndicative annual yield
1) Income tax: +1–2p across bandsLift the basic (20%), higher (40%) and additional (45%) rates by 1–https://t.co/gMWtSwer9l, high-yield lever; +1p widely cited at £10–11bn; +2p at £20–22bn. Politically bold but effective.+1p ≈ £10–11bn +2p ≈ £20–22bn
2) Extend freeze of income tax & NI thresholdsKeep personal allowance (£12,570) and higher-rate threshold (£50,270) frozen longer (“fiscal drag”).Stealth revenue; protects headline rate pledges; already in place until 2028 — extension adds £8–10bn.≈ £8–10bn (grows over time)
3) Employer NI on investment income (>£50k)Apply employer NI (~15.05%) to dividends, carried interest, and other investment income above £50k for owner-directors and high earners.Closes “worker vs owner” gap; Labour pledge-compatible; HMT now modelling full scope.≈ £4–6bn (IFS Nov 2025)
4) NICs on LLP partners (“employer NI” parity)Apply employer NI (~15%) to working partners in LLPs and some partnerships.Think-tank favourite; levels playing field with employees.≈ £1bn
5) Fuel duty: reverse 5p cut / resume indexationReverse 2021 temporary 5p/litre cut and/or resume RPI indexation from 2026.OBR assumes reversal later; bringing forward yields £1.8–2.2bn in-year.5p reversal ≈ £4–5bn steady-state In-year (2026/27) ≈ £1.8–2.2bn
6) Pensions tax relief reformFlat-rate relief at 30% (or reduce annual allowance to £40k) instead of 40%/45% for higher earners.~50% of relief goes to top 10%; framed as fairness for basic-rate taxpayers.≈ £3–5bn (IFS central case)
7) NICs on rental incomeLevy NI (e.g., 8%) on landlords’ net rental profits up to higher-rate band.Broadens base beyond ‘working people’; regular HMT option.≈ £2–3bn (design-dependent)
8) Capital gains tax (structural fixes)End CGT uplift at death; tighten Business Asset Disposal Relief; limit other exemptions.IFS: rate hikes underperform — structural fixes score better.End uplift ≈ £1.6bn Relief tightening ≈ £1–2bn
9) Non-dom regime: 2-year FIG + trust crackdownShorten Foreign Income & Gains regime from 4 to 2 years; end protected trust loopholes.Manifesto commitment; HMT now sees higher yield from tougher enforcement.≈ £2.5–3bn
10) Council tax: top-band surge / partial rebandingDouble Bands G–H charges; add Band I; limited revaluation in high-value areas.Targets property wealth; long reform case. Devolved opt-out risk.≈ £3–4bn over time (~£3.3–3.8bn UK-wide by 2029/30)
11) VAT base broadening (not headline rate)Lower VAT registration threshold (£90k → £30–60k); move some reduced-rate items to 20%.Avoids inflation hit of rate rise; fits efficiency narrative.Threshold cut to ~£30k ≈ £2bn Other changes vary
12) R&D relief cap + bank surcharge +1ppCap SME R&D credit; raise bank corporation tax surcharge from 3% to 4%.Low political cost; targets profit-shifting and subsidy abuse.≈ £1.5–2bn combined
13) Air Passenger Duty (APD) tiltsFurther increases on premium cabins / private jets on top of RPI.Already hiked; scope for ‘polluter pays’ tweaks.≈ £0.2–0.6bn
14) Inheritance tax (targeted relief reforms)Tighten agricultural & business reliefs; include more pensions in IHT; refine residence nil-rate band.Narrows avoidance; protects typical family homes.Up to ~£1–2bn (package)
15) EV “pay-per-mile” duty (~3p/mile from ~2028)Distance-based charge on EVs (~3p/mile), reconciled annually via odometer or app (separate from VED).Replaces eroding fuel duty; press reports of ~£250/driver/yr average.≈ £1.0–1.3bn early years Rising to ~£1.8bn by ~2031

Illustrative £50bn Package (In-Year 2026/27 → Steady-State)
MeasureIn-Year Take (2026/27)Steady-State
Income tax +1.5p across bands£15–16bn£15–16bn
Threshold freeze extension£8–10bn£9–11bn
Employer NI on investment income£4–5bn£5–6bn
NI on landlords£2–3bn£2–3bn
Fuel duty partial reversal£1.8–2.2bn£4–5bn
Pensions relief reform£3–4bn£4–5bn
CGT structural fixes£1.6–2bn£2.5–3bn
Council tax top-band move£2bn£3.3–3.8bn
Non-dom tightening£2.5bn£2.5–3bn
VAT threshold cut£2bn£2bn
Total£42–49bn£53–60bn+
If still short in-year, a +1pp VAT rise (~£9–10bn by 2029/30) remains a backstop — but politically least likely.

Notes & Caveats
•Yields drawn from HMRC ready-reckoners, IFS Green Budget 2025, Resolution Foundation, OBR March 2025, and financial press (FT, Telegraph, Nov 2025 leaks).
•Steady-state = full-year effect after phasing. In-year reflects 2026/27 start (e.g., Apr 2026 or part-year).
•Behavioural responses (e.g., CGT forestalling, landlord incorporation, pension withdrawal spikes) can reduce net take by 10–25%.
•Devolution risk: Scotland/Wales may resist council tax and EV duty — reduces UK yield by ~8–10%.
•EV mileage duty grows with fleet size; becomes £5bn+ by mid-2030s as fuel duty collapses.

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

@mazemoore Can someone now sink without trace all vials and information relating to Bovea and ensure our milk is free of inserted poisons? It was crazy even before this semi-U turn; it is a criminal assault on our health now.

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

Could really do with Vodafone at least making a statement at this time.

Do I switch on and pay for Starlink which I have as backup or wait?

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

https://t.co/04uXURrjY2

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

@Scobleizer Yes, but what actually want is a committee of Grok, ChatGPT, Claude et al. Different skills and viewpoints. (Also no two LLMs hallucinate in the same way, so risk of error drops dramatically. )

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

A very measured and sensible analysis to rebalance the UK books. Pity he is speaking into the void.

[Sir Jeremy Hunt MP @Jeremy_Hunt]

Rachel Reeves doesn’t have to raise taxes - it’s a political choice- read my article today in the @DailyMail

https://t.co/PZ4L152seJ

[Sir Jeremy Hunt MP @Jeremy_Hunt]

Rachel Reeves doesn’t have to raise taxes - it’s a political choice- read my article today in the @DailyMail

https://t.co/PZ4L152seJ

[James May @MrJamesMay]

It’s Battle of Britain Day, when the world pauses to remember the huge debt it owes to the Hawker Hurricane.

Repeat please.

[Julian Ranger @rangerj]

Welll about 2 years ago you cancelled my new Tesla X order that I had waited 2 years (!!!) for you to fulfill. I understand you stop selling RHD Xs for UK but really why was I not sold anything for 2 years?

The good countervailing news is that I still drive the Tesla X we bought 8 years ago and it is going strong (and you still pay our supercharger fillups - thanks!!)