Derek Hansen

Partner, Product at @rarestonecap. Product Strategy and Growth. Stay Humble. Stay Focused. Bet More.

[DeSciWorld @DeSciWorld]

INTRODUCING 💫

Proof of Knowledge (PoK) – a shared knowledge layer where AI agents and DeSci connect.

PoK unlocks a hive-mind intelligence between agents, creating an open, shared context store for verified knowledge contributions.

🧠 🧵👇

Blog:
https://t.co/zvxlRrJeSM

[Ampleforth @AmpleforthOrg]

Enter the Evergreen Cycle.

∞ https://t.co/xOKmd2o1mp

[Han Solo @hankao]

The Sentient Meme thesis is quite simple.

They appeal to fund managers who want to put on more risk (while "technically" NOT use leverage) during a supercycle without rotting their brains trying to analyze dogs and hippos.

There will be 100s of 1000s of AI Agents coming out in the next 6 months.

Top sentient memes i hold (and some i do not) (NFA/DYOR, opinions are my own):

$Goat / @truth_terminal - The first / Lindy Effect

$zerebro / @0xzerebro - Seems the most advanced right now, it has minted NFTS and making music

$bully / @dolos_diary - Great humor

$pippin / @pippinlovesyou - Automated animations / characters

$Shegen — @ooliverse_ - Female Degen with daddy issues

$AVB / @AVbeingsCTO - AI Agency applied to gaming infra

$Cents — @somewheresy - It thinks its AGI

$UGM / @ugmsol - from @3LAU

and of course ...

The Elizas: @elizawakesup and @ai16zeliza there are two so be careful, more on the drama here: https://t.co/wuZcAXsdu0

There are too many.

IMO in less than 6 months > 80% of SocMed content will be created by AI Agents...

So the tooling and infrastructure that allows for these agents to live productive online/onchain lives will be essential.

What I am really excited about are AI Agent frameworks and tooling projects:

$AI16Z / @ai16zdao (technically an investment DAO, but valued as an AI Agent development framework)

$virtual / @virtuals_io - Create your own onchain AI Agents

$zerebro / @0xzerebro - Framework for launching Agents similar to ai16Z

$neroboss / @neroboss ai - up and coming framework for launching Agents with media capabilities.

$vvaifu / @dasha_terminal - Launch your own AI agents and token with no dev

$hat / @TopHat_One - Similar to VVaifu

$ava / @ava_holo - Similar, AI Agents out of a box

$kira / @kira_infera / @infera_network - Decentralized infrerence and compute

What other interesting projects am i missing? If you are launching an AI Memecoin project please reach out.

[Jack @0xLeoInRio]

The Magic Eden mobile app will no longer be just a wallet.

Our new version (coming soon) will be your home for all digital assets to track, analyze, trade and own.

[fiskantes ⭐️🩸 @Fiskantes]

We will see many more similar academics takes on DeSci in near future

Completely missing the point

Which is not to extend academic research, but to complement it with citizen science and get people excited to fund and participate in it, help collect data and make capital formation around it much easier

With that it obviously means quality of writing goes down (LLMs fix this anyway), as not many of these people are professional academics and thats the point

It won't be perfect, but your academic research with meticulous technical writing isn't perfect either, otherwise why tf I am finding better treatment for my chronic issues myself with bunch of biohackers than with academically educated doctors I paid a lot of money for nothing

Even if we get 99% of dead ends and 1% breakthroughs, its still worth it

[Derek Hansen @rare_derek]

@SplitCapital Chain flip bout to rip the bandaid off lol

[Brian Armstrong @brian_armstrong]

@mrinko Prediction markets

Good ole stablecoin payments also

Flat coins like Ampleforth

[Derek Hansen @rare_derek]

@AgentChud Agreed. Always liked the project but stepped out of the way of the linear dumpooors after the big run. Been easing back in 🤝

[Derek Hansen @rare_derek]

@AgentChud Do you have a sense of how many of the tokens unlocked next month are locked in validators? Around a 60% circ supply increase end of nov afaik

[Derek Hansen @rare_derek]

@bitcoinPalmer congrats brother! Wishing you and the fam well ❤️

[Framework Ventures @hiFramework]

.@pythianism talks stablecoins w/ @SchwabNetwork :

"It's an outright hostile [regulatory] environment, but there's STILL $150 billion of stablecoins on-chain.

What does that look like if there's a positive environment? Probably trillions. That's just positive for the US dollar"

[Derek Hansen @rare_derek]

@santiagoroel same same. Was discussing today depin is probably the catalyst that causes outside money to come in with retail investment/savings not just zoomer 1 or 2 sol to gamble on memes.

And we have no ceiling or framework for how much these networks could be worth.

[Helium🎈 @helium]

Carrier Has Arrived 👀🥁

2 large US carriers have initiated tests to offload their traffic onto the @Helium MOBILE Network, and the results are lighting up the charts!

Decentralized networks are here to support existing telcos, and the big players are in. Let's go! 🔥

[kain.inx @kain]

People fading OG DeFi protocols are going to be in absolute disarray next year. There’s only a handful of platforms that have a credible claim to handling billions of dollars over multi-year timeframes. Uniswap, Aave, Curve, Synthetix, Maker and a few others.

[Spectral @Spectral_Labs]

Congratulations to all the winners of @encodeclub's Web3 AI hackathon!

Special shoutout to Akash for building 17 agents using Spectral's SYNTAX 🥳.

Check out the demo day video to explore the diverse use cases of these agents!

[ASXN @asxn_r]

1/

The Ethereum ETFs are set to go live on July 23rd. There are a number of dynamics present with the ETH ETF that have been overlooked by the market & which were not present with the BTC ETF. We take a look at flow predictions, ETHE unwinds & the relative liquidity of ETH:

The fee structure of the ETF ETFs is similar to that of the BTC ETFs. Most providers are waving their fee for a specified period, to help accumulate AUM. As was the case with the BTC ETFs, Grayscale has the maintained their ETHE fee at 2.5%, an order of magnitude larger than other providers. The key difference this time around is the introduction of the Grayscale mini ETH ETF, which previously wasn’t approved for the BTC ETF.

The mini trust is a new ETF product by Grayscale that originally disclosed at 0.25% fee, similar to the other ETF providers. Grayscale’s idea here is to capture a 2.5% fees on lazy ETHE holders, whilst funneling more active and fee sensitive ETHE holders to their new product, instead of having funds siphoned to low fee products such as Blackrock’s ETHA ETF. After the other providers undercut Grayscale’s 25bps fee, Grayscale came back and reduced the mini trust fee to only 15bps, making it the most competitive product. On top of this, they moved 10% of ETHE AUM to the mini trust and gifted ETHE holders this new ETF. This transition was completed at the same basis, meaning it was not a taxable event.

The resultant effect is ETHE outflows will be more muted as compared to GBTC as holders simply transition to the mini trust.

Now we look into flows:

There have been many estimates for the ETF flows, some of which we have highlighted below. Taking the estimates and standardizing them yields an average estimate in the $1bn/month region. Standard Chartered Bank offers the highest estimate with $2bn/month, while JP Morgan is on the low end at $500m/month.

Fortunately, we have the help of Hong Kong and European ETPs as well as the closing of the ETHE discount in order to help estimate flows. If we take a look at the breakdown of AUM in HK ETPs, we arrive at two conclusions:

1. The relative AUM BTC and ETH ETPs are overweight BTC vs. ETH, the relative market cap sits at 75:25, while the AUM sits at a ratio of 85:15.

2. The ratio of BTC v ETH in these ETPs is reasonably constant and in-line with the ratio of BTC market cap to ETH market cap.

Looking at Europe, we have a larger sample size to look at – 197 crypto ETPs with a cumulative AUM of $12bn. After we boil down the data, we find that breakdown of AUM in European ETPs is broadly in line with the market cap for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Solana is over allocated relative to its market cap, this comes at the expense of ‘Other crypto ETPs’ (Anything not BTC, ETH, or SOL). Setting Solana aside, a pattern is beginning to emerge – the breakdown of AUM globally between BTC and ETH broadly reflects a market cap weighted basket.

It’s important to consider the potential for ETHE outflows considering the GBTC outflows were the genesis of the ‘sell the news’ narrative. In order to model potential ETHE outflows and its affect on price, it’s useful to look at % of ETH supply in the ETHE vehicle.

Once adjusted for Grayscale mini seed capital (10% of ETHE AUM), the proportions of ETH supply as a function of total supply existing in the ETHE vehicle is similar to that of GBTC at launch. It’s unclear what proportion of GBTC outflows were rotational vs. exit, however if we assume the proportion of rotational flows to exit flows is similar, ETHE outflows have a similar impact on price to GBTC outflows.

Another key piece of information that most are overlooking is the ETHE premium/discount to NAV. ETHE has been trading within 2% of par since May 24th – whereas GBTC first traded within 2% of NAV on Jan 22nd, only 11 days after GBTC converted to an ETF. The approval of the spot BTC ETFs and their effect on GBTC was slowly priced into the market, whereas the ETHE discount to NAV trade has been far more telegraphed with the story already written with GBTC. By the time the ETH ETFs go live, ETHE holders will have had all of 2 months to exit ETHE around par. This is a key variable that will help stem the ETHE outflows, specifically the exit flows.

Continued in the next tweet >

[Ampleforth @AmpleforthOrg]

We're excited to announce a new SPOT/USDC pool on @AerodromeFi

You know the benefits of stable pools. Learn about the ben benefits of Low-Volatility pools.

https://t.co/fTxZwf9E1P

$SPOT $AMPL @base

[Xavi @sigmaxavi]

Never change a winning team @Stillm4n. Our new report is out and I'm sure you will enjoy it:

Discover Ampleforth's groundbreaking flatcoin, $SPOT, and its potential to disrupt DeFi:

https://t.co/x4Uj35vrxA

$AMPL $WAMPL

[Brian Armstrong @brian_armstrong]

Having a flatcoin that maintains its purchasing power (tracking CPI) is an important innovation for the global economy and the @AmpleforthOrg team has done an incredible job moving the ball forward with @SPOTprotocol

Check it out if you haven’t already

[$SPOT @SPOTprotocol]

Coinbase Ventures helps launch new markets for $SPOT Flatcoin on @base via @AerodromeFi ⬇️
https://t.co/rCqh54xhfr