Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓

R. Scott Raynovich, Principal Analyst @futuriom following #cloud #security #networking #techstocks. Ex. Light Reading, Red Herring. Views my own

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

Just put in an order to buy one share each of $META and $AMZN at $99 each just for chuckles. Will hold forever. Will post updates here. #markets #techstocks @aschmitt @LaMonicaBuzz

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

@Mr_Derivatives Somebody needs to ask what he did with all his BTC. Did he say?

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

@DarioCpx To hold for 4 days? Big deal.

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

@theepicmap That’s not even an accurate map

[MeidasTouch @MeidasTouch]

Musk throws Trump under the bus

[Eric Jhonsa @EricJhonsa]

Current valuations for AI infra plays (across semis/hardware, industrials and data center owners), for those willing to brave the waters here.

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

@GerberKawasaki Let’s be real. It’s a bubble. Contracts can be cancelled

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

@dampedspring massive customer concentration and a lot of SV insiders

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

@DerivativesDon Also needs some calculation of their overvalued stocks/inflated housing that they can’t afford value ratio.

[Henrikh @henrikhinai]

Paul Tudor Jones says US stocks are 252% of GDP - vs. 170% at the dot-com peak - and a 35% mean reversion would wipe out 89% of GDP

"We're clearly in a sovereign debt bubble"

The trader who called the 1987 crash told "Invest Like The Best" why both AI and this market worry him:

> "The Genie's Out Of The Bottle" (1:30):
- After he warned about AI on CNBC, Warren Buffett sent him a note: "I agree with you 100%, but the genie's out of the bottle." At a closed-door conference, the consensus on AI safety: labs will act "when 50 or 100 million people die in an accident"

> Watermark Everything (5:01):
- His one fix: "demand that all AI is watermarked" - and "make it a felony if someone knowingly violates that three times"

> The IPO Wave (16:11):
- The 2000-02 bear market came from the 1999-2000 IPO flood. Next year's planned IPOs: "five, six percent of market cap" - after a decade of buybacks shrinking supply. That money "is going to come out of existing tech stocks"

> 252% Of GDP (17:56):
- 1929: 65%
- 1987: 85-90%
- 2000: 170%
- Today: 252%
A 30-35% mean reversion is a wealth hit of "89% of GDP" - and capital gains taxes, 10% of revenue, "go to zero"

Every day I break down what the smart money really thinks about AI

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

Our latest @Futuriom #SASE survey shows that Platform Trends Remain Strong
via @forbes https://t.co/bbxL6RLd8v

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

@sychou @JasonYanowitz @paulhsu Totally! I don’t understand savings accounts with sub 1% interest

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

@The_Analyst What’s their Angle?

[Jake K @Jakewk]

The “AI is bigger than all previous infrastructure build outs” data is well-distributed now. To those paying attention.

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

@BillAckman @cullenroche Which has been fueled by cheap capital and probably artificial demand—possibly like 1999?

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

@The_Analyst Yes a bit rich but … Services upside. Strong Monopoly position. AI servers coming. New CEO can position entire platform for AI delivery. And as somebody else said they haven’t spent the money.

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

@venkyganesan @LRLinks We’ve got to chat

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

@CathieDWood Your returns are perennially worse than the average index.

[Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 @rayno]

Um. Does anybody think that possibly a message is being sent. By certain foreign governments holding U.S. bonds?

Just seems like too much of a coincidence today. #bonds #china @dampedspring

[Eric Jhonsa @EricJhonsa]

KeyBanc (upgrading $INTC and $AMD to Overweight) says Intel/AMD are largely sold out of 2026 server CPU capacity and expects AMD to see 50%+ server CPU growth this year. (via @TMTBreakout)