Ray Qin

AI Engineer | Bay Area | Bitcoin

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

@leadlagreport you have been talking anout this for 3 years.

[Xiaoyin Qu @quxiaoyin]

GLM 5.2/Kimi 2.7 marks new chapter in AI: the model itself is no longer the moat.
It's good enough for most knowledge work tasks, so ROI starts to matter. When models were dumb half a year ago, we needed the most expensive frontier model to do average tasks, but now many models are smart enough for most things. That's why you see people start talking about token economics and Chinese open source models. Yes, frontier labs will stay frontier, but it's unlikely that everyone will pay 100x for Fable when it's 8 points higher than GLM 5.2 and both are solid.

Frontier labs are fighting a uphill battle: they must stay frontier to justify its premium, which they can only stay frontier for 2-3 months(or even sooner). Meanwhile Chinese labs will distill and offer the same frontier level for free. That's why I think we are going to see Codex/Claude focusing more on applications.

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

生产力的瓶颈通常不在技术，而是权利带来的利益冲突。土地，法律，证书，在AI时代智慧和体力劳动的价值都是断崖式下跌。

这也是为什么我深信比特币。钱是能量和资源的抽象，国家控制经济靠的不是军队而是货币，参考人民币，离岸人民币，港币。

世界要更富饶靠的不是更多机器，而是更多人获得自由，抵制官僚主义，过度监管和税收。比特币从$120K跌到了$60K，悲观的声音不断，我也偏偏选择这个时间来发这个文章。

比特币对我的意义不仅仅是赚钱，而是人类到底能不能跨越国家的界限，创造世界公民共同维护的货币。一个可以被影响，但无法被控制的系统。

在历史上，法币的结局只有失败，因为控制能量的诱惑太大了，没有任何人可以抵御，哪怕美元也最终和黄金脱钩。一个可以被世界所有国家信任的货币，不能来自于任何国家。

我是比特币国家的公民。

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

@ofootball__ this post aged well

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

巴拉圭守门员真牛逼

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

I think @PeterSchiff is slowly realizing that Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme, therefore the new victim is @saylor and the goalpost becomes Strategy is a Ponzi.

Ask everyone to liquidate their stocks, and let’s see if they are Ponzi as well.

I only got into $MSTR last week because I’m tired of the FUD. I’m mostly HODLing bitcoin:native without leverage.

I’m not saying $MSTR will outperform bitcoin:native, it’ll underperform if the dividends are more expensive than $BTC appreciation, but calling it a Ponzi and expecting an imminent collapse are naive.

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

I just cancelled my @AnthropicAI subscription.

I started out having like 2-3 subs for Opus 4.6, cancelled them all and switched to GPT-5.5 when it was released.

I got back into Claude for Fable, got to use it for 2 days and Opus 4.8 isn’t much better than GPT-5.5 or GLM-5.2.

Even with Fable’s benchmarks, I really don’t see how it’s dangerous to release especially with all of the internal guardrails.

I’m more than happy to be back, when the subscription provides more value.

[Tai Lopez @tailopez]

Sun Tzu was right, a good man without strength is hoping that evil has mercy.

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

$MSTR $STRC I bought the dip.

Yes it was scary, @PeterSchiff and even some Bitcoiners had so much FUD about Strategy that they think Bitcoin will succeed while the treasury company that holds 800K Bitcoins will fail.

But we buy exactly when it’s scary, right?

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

@saylor we think alike.

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

Buyback is the most effective strategy for $MSTR, even at share holder dilution. $STRC is a promise, if retail believes the promise the broken, the most effective way to prove them wrong is to own that promise themselves. It’s also unpredictable which can scare away short sellers once in a while while destroyed.

There should be regular drops for days to deleverage to ensure the fund is healthy. The leverage would be crazy if $STRC actually never drops! of course hopefully not to this extent every time, just need to remove the excessive leverages.

Money market fund is risk free cash for me. $STRC is an income generating machine. The only thesis $MSTR dies is it starts selling $BTC for dividends and somehow Bitcoin is gonna collapse. All of these Bitcoiners are predicting a company with 800K+ Bitcoin to fail, and somehow Bitcoin will succeed.

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

Bitcoin isn’t my endgame.

Bitcoiners and the Nation of Bitcoin are.

I believe as Bitcoin appreciates, eventually the Bitcoin movement will build its own nation with real physical borders.

If you truly believe Bitcoin, you are a citizen of the Nation of Bitcoin. People united.

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

@saylor handled business like an aerospace engineer with class.

1. Don’t over explain yourself, create an illusion that you are about to fail, so the mass piles up on you. In fact, as $MSTR recovers, the low just proves the resilience of the instrument.

2. Over deliver the fix. Not just refilling the cash reserve, but also introduced 2x $1B programs to buy back $MSTR and prefers (e.g. $STRC) which can be really effective against leverage, and a full two way plan.

I don’t see a scenario where bitcoin:native succeeds while $MSTR fail.

They thrive or die together.

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

@mikealfred I’m sincerely curious were people actually shorting $MSTR or $STRC actively? With the 2B programs, it feels so risky for shorts.

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

@TheOtherParker_ you gotta follow the right accounts (mine)

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

@PeterSchiff $MSTR sold in 2022 even more. Saylor not only solved the issues, but also created buyback programs that can take advantage and mitigate short term volatility.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Strategy announces a Digital Credit Capital Framework designed to strengthen Digital Credit, enhance liquidity, preserve long-term Bitcoin exposure, and support long-term value creation. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/AUoUCtem53

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

@saylor @StrategyPedro The market likes the announcement.

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

@SnyderOpines @WUTangKids @rogertansey I hope humanity achieves it together

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

@Tsiberia 中韩还好吧？

[Ray Qin @rayq_ai]

@OopsGuess Chinese culture hides wealth and strength, not bragging, especially in competition settings like business, not for some fancy moral reasons, but to prevent jealousy from others. Let your competition think that you ate stupid and incapable.