RBPtechnology

Like to follow stocks, markets, etc. All opinions; not advice.

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@FishtownCap @Hypertonx If the $ZM CEO was smart enough to invest in Anthropic I’d bet he’s got a good shot at figuring out how to grow zoom with AI from here

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@FishtownCap @BRK_Student Guess we’ll have to see if/when we have a true cycle. I’d bet when that happens the S&P could fall 30% and it still wouldn’t look cheap but wouldn’t be able to stay the same about Berkshire at that time (btw no position in Berkshire).

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@FishtownCap @BRK_Student Current S&P 500 price isn’t “real” for an investor with a forever holding period. It’s filled tons of cos where earnings are way overstated (SBC, perpetual adjustments, etc.) or valuations are incredible. I’d bet that BRK will beat it as it has over the last 5, 10, 20 years etc.

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@DannyOcean555 What’s more underrated how sophisticated the CEO and Chair are at stealing from shareholders. Convinced the board to reprice ~3.5m shares of options from $11.79-$22 strikes to a strike of $6.63 last year…

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@bgurley @mjmauboussin Is it easy though? Tell that to Sears or KMart…

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@EricBalchunas @RealEJAntoni Half of the job growth was healthcare. At least half of healthcare spending is government spending (Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare, tax subsidies+)…

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@FishtownCap What can they do to grow? Surely refund amount, income and homeownership data should be pretty valuable. Otherwise seems like a boring stale business where $WU trades at 5x earnings and 9.5% yield with similar terminal risk concerns is better…

[Jay Parsons @jayparsons]

Narrative buster: The share of U.S. single-family homes occupied by renters is at 15+ year LOWS, according to Redfin.

And yet both sides of the aisle want you to believe institutional investors are the boogeyman turning America into a renter nation... 🙄

Facts > Narratives.

[Boyan Slat @BoyanSlat]

Some interesting things I learned this year:

• 33% of the world’s population (= about 2.2 billion people) have never used the internet.

• 38% of Stanford students are registered as having a disability (likely many of these are gaming the system to get extra time on exams).

• HIV began spreading in the early 1900s in Africa but went largely unnoticed until the 1980s, as its deaths resembled other infectious diseases common in rural areas.

• Manhattan today has about 650,000 fewer residents than it did in 1910.

• Humans and octopuses evolved eyes independently, but in humans the optic nerve attaches in front of the retina, creating a blind spot, while in octopuses it attaches behind the retina, so they don’t have one.

• Global suicide rates have declined by about 36% since 2000.

• India is a major leather exporter, despite cows being considered sacred. Most hides come from water buffalo, which are not considered holy.

• About 82% of dogs used by South Korea’s quarantine agency are cloned. Training costs are less than half those of randomly selected dogs, since only top performers are cloned.

• Roughly 1% of the U.S. workforce is laid off each month, whereas in Germany it’s less than 0.1%.

• Light pollution is causing birds worldwide to sing longer each day, extending their vocalizations by an average of 50 minutes.

• Until the late 1980s, doctors often performed surgery on babies without anesthesia, due to the belief that infants did not feel pain.

• People with Down syndrome have about half the rate of solid cancers compared to the general population, likely due to anti-cancer genes on chromosome 21.

• At launch, SpaceX’s Starship produces instantaneous power equivalent to roughly 10% of the entire U.S. electricity grid.

• China has built, on average, roughly one large dam per day since 1949.

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@Mr_Neutral_Man Seems fair: Depreciation is a real expense (office investors learned the hard way). 2/Unless assets are super scarce or cater to the top 20%, it may be challenged (look at how concentrated corporate profits and consumption has gotten). 3/ Who knows what RE needs post-AI look like

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

Hearing worse anecdotes this year from the same shop, “I had to check my calendar feels like Thanksgiving/Christmas, the phones suddenly stop ringing the last couple weeks.” Still short $SNA. Stock has underperformed (YTD, 1-year etc.) still expect that to continue…

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

1/ Anecdote from independent auto repair shop in NJ (top 5% in revenue in the state) that caters to many $100k+/yr income communities:

- Business really slowed the first week of Oct but has rebounded - they’re watching trends closely but chalking up to Jewish holidays for now

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@GavinSBaker @Atreidesmgmt Maybe Elon is a special case & agree not paying what was owed & double approved by shareholders was not fair but he also owns 13%. If the stock implodes so does his chunk (he won’t let that happen). Bufffet, Dimon, Bezos & Gates are better rolemodels for comp for shareholders imo

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

Might be premature but wonder if/when $MSTR busting their “mNAV / bitcoin yield concept” echos what happened in 2000. “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes”…

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@RagingVentures Bought some $FDS recently for a trade. Mainly for reasons above + thinking the new CEO was highly motivated to sandbag guidance ahead of a big incentive award he wanted struck more favorably ($22m; struck after earnings).

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@Austen The market’s temporary stupidity isn’t the same as creating wealth. Excluding compensation in litigation, Musk has been paid more than $50B since IPO, despite $TSLA earning less than $35B in aggregate during that 15+ years. This package will be the same when all is said and done.

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@FishtownCap Old write up but some data as a reference for that. I’m watching $TGT, hoping it continues to decline maybe into a total capitulation when the new CEO kitchen sinks guidance after taking over in Q1 next year…

https://t.co/rR9EWBX9Tr

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@FishtownCap A big chunk of multiple compression in $TGT happened in the past year or so as sale softened (consumer base skews more left). Less sure what’s going on at $WMT seems like a similar dynamic to other retailers $COST or $HD where no price is too high for competitively advantaged cos

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@FishtownCap Seems like their prospects have gotten a lot worse in the near and long term though (SNAP cuts, MAHA, GLP-1s including pill forms in the pipeline)? $HRL looks kind of interesting to me: decent organic growth, more protein focused / narrow portfolio, good long term record etc.

[RBPtechnology @rbptechnology]

@Citrini7 Sounds like airline ticket prices need to go up…