@dampedspring Getting more hikes is not getting the 10Y to 5.25 unless you believe they will do nothing to slow inflation. Should just flatten the curve. Or you don’t believe the long-run number / AI deflation narrative.
@cullenroche I agree 50%. They’re very avoidable for most retail client meetings. The process an advisor uses for portfolio construction and the means of communicating investments & financial planning with clients for a good advisor look radically different.
@wealthMAinsider I’d hope they’re getting much higher earn out multiples if they have no market contribution. Rolling 3 year returns for a diversified portfolio highly skew positive. Some people struggle to understand “base rates” though.
@wratliffky@PinoAmericano No they are not. Most businesses don’t contribute *that* much to the greater good across a massive population and very visible manner
@LeylaKuni By definition, doesn’t the math & law dictate that with PIK in ANY quantity, distributions will always outpace true cash flow? Isn’t that really just a nuance in the accounting treatment of PIK that wind up with fund NAV’s behaving like premium issued bonds (pull to par)?
@NickNemo17@999pepperoni You said $3B of debt (that’s now equity) and $200MM of EBITDA. 5X multiple per you. Thats $1B EV. With no debt now (it became equity) that’s $0.33 on the dollar, no? Or is there other debt you’re assuming takes the enterprise value instead?
@systvest What are you trying to conclude from comparing international small cap value to us large cap market cap? Wouldn’t it be more appropriate to compare a US Large Cap factor fund?
@bennpeifert@Galois_Capital How much money does the **State Government** of California transfer to the Federal Government? I’m guessing you’re really talking about their residents’ federal taxes which are not state governments subsidizing other states. It’s the wealthy all over, which CA & NY have a lot of!
@NickNemo17 The most credible argument is that there are limited public market successes of roll up exits where PE managers need exit liquidity to complete the “multiple arbitrage” round trip, & are instead selling to a bigger fund & so on. But I don’t think that’ll be the story this cycle.
@NickNemo17 Which is why the debt yields more. More turns on Ebitda leverage vs public fixed income. I don’t know anyone who thinks SOFR +650 loans are risk free.
If the whole thing blows up PE will do worse than PC in my opinion.