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[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

In typical organizations, most decisions are made either autocratically, by a top-down leader, or democratically, where everyone shares their opinions and those opinions that have the most support are implemented. Both systems produce inferior decision making. That’s because the best decisions are made by an idea meritocracy with believability-weighted decision making, in which the most capable people work through their disagreements with other capable people who have thought independently about what is true and what to do about it. #principleoftheday

[steve deals @realSteveDeals]

@tthomson @dhh Tailscale

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Using principles is a way of both simplifying and improving your decision making. While it might seem obvious to you by now, it’s worth repeating that realizing that almost all “cases at hand” are just “another one of those,” identifying which “one of those” it is, and then applying well-thought-out principles for dealing with it. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Imagine that virtually everything important going on in your company can be captured as data, and that you can build algorithms to instruct the computer, as you would instruct a person, to analyze that data and use it in the way you agreed it should be used. In that way, you and the computer on your behalf could look at each person and all the people together and provide tailored guidance, just like your GPS provides you guidance by knowing all the traffic patterns and routes. You don't have to make it mandatory to follow that guidance, though you can. Generally speaking, the system operates like a coach. And the coach can learn about its team: Data is collected about what people do so that if they make more insightful moves or less insightful moves, learning will occur and be used to create improvements. Because the thinking behind the algorithms is available to everyone, anyone can assess the quality of the logic and its fairness, and have a hand in shaping it. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

I often hear people say, "Wouldn't it be good to do this or that?" It's likely they are being distracted from far more important things that need to be done well. #principleoftheday

[steve deals @realSteveDeals]

@kwilczynski @dhh All you have to follow is the principle you already use … if you are repeating yourself more than a few times —> you do what?

[steve deals @realSteveDeals]

@kwilczynski @dhh That means you are missing something… maybe create a ghost and leverage ai?

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

By checks, I mean people who check on other people to make sure they're performing well, and by balances, I mean balances of power. Even the most benevolent leaders are prone to becoming more autocratic, if for no other reason than because managing a lot of people and having limited time to do it requires them to make numerous difficult choices quickly, and they sometimes lose patience with arguments and issue commands instead. And most leaders are not so benevolent that they can be trusted to put the organization's interests ahead of their own. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Watch out for people who argue against something whenever they can find something--anything--wrong with it, without properly weighing all the pluses and minuses. Such people tend to be poor decision makers. #principleoftheday

[steve deals @realSteveDeals]

@techleadhd Blender does this too

[steve deals @realSteveDeals]

@henrytdowling @maxedapps If anything it should increase… but those who don’t adopt will find out hard way

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Dependence on one person produces too much key-man risk, limits the range of expertise (because nobody is good at everything), and fails to establish adequate checks and balances. It also creates a burden because there's generally too much to do. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

You can significantly improve your track record if you only make the bets that you are most confident will pay off. #principleoftheday

[steve deals @realSteveDeals]

@maxedapps I think having a “session manager “ agent that orchestrates all the skills and the rest of the fleet is the most useful thing .. OS for agents coming soon

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

All that I've said thus far will be useless if you don't have good governance. Governance is the oversight system that removes the people and the processes if they aren't working well. It is the process that checks and balances power to assure that the principles and interests of the community as a whole are always placed above the interests and power of any individual or faction. Because power will rule, power must be put in the hands of capable people in key roles who have the right values, do their jobs well, and will check and balance the power of others. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

I often observe people making decisions if their odds of being right are greater than 50 percent. What they fail to see is how much better off they'd be if they raised their chances even more (you can almost always improve your odds of being right by doing things that will give you more information). The expected value gain from raising the probability of being right from 51 percent to 85 percent (i.e., by 34 percentage points) is seventeen times more than raising the odds of being right from 49 percent (which is probably wrong) to 51 percent (which is only a little more likely to be right). Think of the probability as a measure of how often you're likely to be wrong. Raising the probability of being right by 34 percentage points means that a third of your bets will switch from losses to wins. That's why it pays to stress-test your thinking, even when you're pretty sure you're right.
#principleoftheday

[steve deals @realSteveDeals]

@davepl1968 @RSvoboda432 What I’m understanding is that people with ASD are more honest and don’t manipulate people

[steve deals @realSteveDeals]

@HarveySpec1337 @dimasmelchiades @Polymarket Ai literally would not exist without copying though…

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a reward for being right and a probability and a penalty for being wrong. Normally a winning decision is one with a positive expected value, meaning that the reward times its probability of occurring is greater than the penalty times its probability of occurring, with the best decision being the one with the highest expected value.
#principleoftheday

[steve deals @realSteveDeals]

@Markojak @bcherny @Steve_Yegge Yes and you need a “session manager “ to keep them locked in … pretty deceptive from anthropic