retar.dio

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

A thread about $TAO larp @CPNasty_ and how he fooled everyone into thinking he is a genius

@CPNasty_ has been really loudly lately telling everyone he sold $TAO around the top and out-traded everyone by waiting to buy back around $250 but is this true at all?

🧵👇

[XY @xydotdot]

A couple BTC whales could Soros the fuck out of Saylor.

Strategy holds around 843,738 BTC. At 64k, that is roughly 54B of BTC.

Behind that, there is 6.7B of convert debt, 15.5B of preferreds, and 871M of cash.

So the common equity claim is roughly:

54.3B BTC
+ 0.9B cash
6.7B debt

15.5B preferreds
= 33.0B common NAV
MSTR is still worth around 39B in the market.
So there is still premium.

That premium is where you Soros Saylor.

Without it, he cannot issue common accretively.

Without accretive common, he needs preferreds.

Without preferreds near par, the cash cost of the structure goes up.

STRC matters more than most think, IMO.

STRC is a 100 stated amount preferred paying 11.5%.

At 89, you can't value it as 11.5% paper. It should be valued as 12.9% risk paper.

Now, BTC does not service STRC.....Cash does.

Their own slide says 55B of BTC reserves against 1.7B of annual dividends and interest.

So they call it 32 years of coverage.

Cool.

But that is not actual cash coverage. That is you-need-to-sell-the-fuck-out-of-BTC coverage.

The actual cash reserve is 871M.

871M / 1.7B = 0.51 years, which equates to roughly six months.

Now back to the BTC whale.

The whale needs to sell enough BTC to make the MSTR premium reprice.

That is the headshot....

Sell enough BTC to pressure the premium, short MSTR, and keep enough BTC exposure against the short because short MSTR already contains short BTC exposure.

The bet is MSTR underperforming BTC as the premium compresses, not just BTC going down.

MSTR has roughly 1.40 of BTC assets for every 1 of market cap, so if you want to isolate the premium, you short MSTR and long BTC against the embedded BTC exposure.

Then pressure STRC holders to ask themselves.....

Do we own credit, or do we own a junior cash claim on a levered BTC fund?

Cue Margot Robbie....

If STRC keeps trading below par, Saylor has a problem.

To pull STRC back to 100, he has to make the yield attractive.

At 89, an 11.50 dividend is a 12.9% yield.

To clear that same yield at 100, the dividend would need to be 12.90.

That is 140 bps of extra cash cost before any new issuance.

If he raises the dividend, cash burn goes up.

If he does not raise it, STRC loses the 100 anchor.

If he issues common near NAV, dilution is obvious.

If he sells BTC to build cash, the never-sell religion gets fucked.

If he stops buying BTC, BTC per share stops being the drug.

Margot Robbie scene ends....

Strategy paper is NOT as good as money.

Every 10k move in BTC is around 8.4B of asset value for Strategy.

At 50k BTC, the BTC stack is worth around 42.2B.

After debt and preferreds, common NAV is around 20.9B.

That is almost half the current market cap before the market even decides whether MSTR deserves any premium at all.

Once STRC trades like credit, MSTR trades like levered NAV.

Once MSTR trades like levered NAV, the funding advantage is gone.

[Lord Taojeet @LordTaojeet]

$tao

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

@LordTaojeet Everyone waiting for his buy tweet

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

@bitfunded Pls

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

@favour_okeja @cozypront I reply to retarded people but you must be too retarded too think its calling myself retardio

Doesnt matter bro , keep sucking indian dick

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

@jayxbt2012 @honey_xbt Exactly fck this indian retard

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

@honey_xbt SHUT UP LARP HAHAHAHHAHAHAHA

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

@ItsEasypop @cozypront She copy posts whales lmao

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

@favour_okeja @cozypront Youre dumb bro

Back in the day she faked pnls and used demo accs

She fooled u retards

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

@cozypront Its an indian dude bro

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

@genuinearticles @PixOnChain Fooled you

[The Greek Trader @TheGreekTrader]

This guy is the biggest fraud in prediction markets.

Claims “I made $100k arbitraging”.
Reality: his PnL on Polymarket is -$3k.

Keeps faking screenshots with inspect element for clout while posing as an “expert.” Best way to gain engagement but lose all your credibility.

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

@EdCastel10 @PixOnChain He fooled you

[The Greek Trader @TheGreekTrader]

This guy is the biggest fraud in prediction markets.

Claims “I made $100k arbitraging”.
Reality: his PnL on Polymarket is -$3k.

Keeps faking screenshots with inspect element for clout while posing as an “expert.” Best way to gain engagement but lose all your credibility.

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

@Mardeni01 @PixOnChain He didn’t he is a fraud

[The Greek Trader @TheGreekTrader]

This guy is the biggest fraud in prediction markets.

Claims “I made $100k arbitraging”.
Reality: his PnL on Polymarket is -$3k.

Keeps faking screenshots with inspect element for clout while posing as an “expert.” Best way to gain engagement but lose all your credibility.

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

@edwardwritess @PixOnChain https://t.co/TYuSlbxjNh

[The Greek Trader @TheGreekTrader]

This guy is the biggest fraud in prediction markets.

Claims “I made $100k arbitraging”.
Reality: his PnL on Polymarket is -$3k.

Keeps faking screenshots with inspect element for clout while posing as an “expert.” Best way to gain engagement but lose all your credibility.

[Euan @Euanker]

@PixOnChain A reminder that @PixOnChain is a negative pnl fraud that is seemingly paid to advertise Polymarket although knowing nothing about the platform. Every profit loss graph he flexes is inspect element. His actual account is down 3.1k. Go check it out!
https://t.co/qQmqmi4d0B

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

@serpinxbt @PixOnChain https://t.co/TYuSlbwLXJ

[The Greek Trader @TheGreekTrader]

This guy is the biggest fraud in prediction markets.

Claims “I made $100k arbitraging”.
Reality: his PnL on Polymarket is -$3k.

Keeps faking screenshots with inspect element for clout while posing as an “expert.” Best way to gain engagement but lose all your credibility.

[Alejandro₿TC @Alejandro_XBT]

Everyone is bullish on rate cuts.

Big mistake. In 2000 and 2008, cuts didn’t save markets they marked the start of the collapse.

The rally always comes first. The pain always follows.

[retar.dio @retardiocr]

@Wolfquant Lmfao

[Ninja @Ninjascalp]

i will not buy crypto

i will wait for the inevitable September liquidation event and go all in

hope you understand

-kekninja

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

So not only did $MSTR buy just $51M of Bitcoin, due to lack of demand for the preferred ATM’s, but it also looks like Saylor is lowering the 2.5x mNAV floor “when otherwise deemed advantageous” to the Company.