🚀 THIS BITCOIN STRATEGY HAS WORKED EVERY SINGLE CYCLE.
Buy 500 days before the halving.
Sell 500 days after the halving.
Repeat.
The people who follow it stop trying to time the noise.
The cycle does the work.
In dieser ruhigen Zeit, befasse ich mich aktuell echt stark damit, was man Altcoin technisch im nächsten Zyklus kaufen soll und was nicht.
Ich habe mittlerweile alles erlebt und ich denke man sollte zwingend mit #Bitcoin beginnen und so viel #Bitcoin wie möglich akkumulieren. Hat man diese Hausaufgabe erledigt, kann man sich gerne andere Dinge anschauen.
Und ich denke wenn man etwas gesehen hat, dass Projekte im Hype mit einem Burn Mechanismus einfach am besten funktioniert haben.
Ich kann gerne Mal zu diesen Projekten ein Video machen, wieso ich denke, dass diese in den nächsten Jahren aufräumen werden.
Es sind vor allem hier: #Hype, #BNB, #Solana, #Tron, #Near, #Ethereum gemeint.
Aber ich denke nicht, dass diese Projekte im tiefsten Bärenmarkt aufsteigen werden. Ich denke eher im Hype. Das heisst, man muss vorsichtig sein.
Ich habe BNB damals ignoriert, Solana ignoriert bei 9$ und habe dementsprechend meine Strafe kassiert! Und ich werde diesen Fehler nicht wiederholen.
Interagiert gerne für weitere Updates hier oder schreibt mir Mal ob wir das thematisieren sollen.
- Wolf
The more I look into this the more It becomes clear.
The similarities between 2019/2020 and now are impossible to ignore.
Not only does the Bitcoin structure look the same, so does:
- US liquidity
- Business cycle
- All of the wider market charts
ETH/BTC, BTC.D, TOTAL2, TOTAL3, OTHERS and OTHERS.D
All of them show the same market position as 2019/2020.
And when you compare it closely, so does the Bitcoin chart.
In 2019/2020 the same things happened, at pretty much exactly the same time.
The reason it is important to differentiate this between a mini bear market like 2019/2020 and 2020 is because the recoveries are totally different.
2019/2020 bottom to new highs was 9 months.
2022 bottom to new highs was 16 months.
This entire setup is so much more like a mid cycle correction than a full end of market bear market.
#Bitcoin has returned to the 200-Week MA for a support test.
In previous cycles: 2015, 2018, 2020, this area marked the bottom.
In 2022, amid the FTX saga, this wasn't the case, and the markets fell through.
Other than that, the Daily RSI is at the same levels as during the COVID-19 crash and the February 2026 crash.
It's the area to accumulate your positions, if you have a strong thesis on Bitcoin from here.
Aside from that perspective, it's all about STRC and the depeg; if that flips back upwards, it's very likely time for Bitcoin to bounce back too.
If there's a constant, continuous downward trend here, we'll most likely see sub-$60,000 in the markets.
The pieces continue to fall as predicted.
The contraction to expansion process is following its usual pattern to a complete tee.
I remember when Gold was pushing $5,000 and everyone was screaming to rotate into it and that its "gonna pump for 10 years".
No.
If it wasn't clear back then that it had topped, then it should be now.
And since then, the rotation to Bitcoin has begun, just how it has in every other cycle.
And all of this has happened as the Business cycle enters into expansion.
Do you honestly think this is just a coincidence?
Gold runs harder within Business cycle contraction because it is a risk off asset, and when the business cycle is in contraction, so too is the economy.
Then, when the economy enters expansion, Gold tops and Bitcoin takes over.
It's really quite simple.
Business cycle contracts -> Gold runs
Business cycle expands -> Bitcoin runs
And each time Gold has topped just as the business cycle enters expansion... literally within a week.
From there, Bitcoin takes its turn it has run for 420 to 470 days.
It's extremely accurate and highly logical, but for some reason, everyone will keep fading this and accepting a time based 4 year cycle view instead of fundamental macro.
Couldn't be me.
🇹🇷🇬🇭 A single Turkish ship anchored off Ghana's coast generates over a quarter of the country's electricity.
The MV Karadeniz Powership Osman Khan is 299 meters long and pumps out up to 480 MW of power.
It has been doing this since 2017.
No power plant to build. No years of construction delays.
Karpowership, the Turkish private company behind it, has quietly turned this model into a global business, deploying floating plants to countries with chronic energy deficits across Africa and beyond.
Africa has an infrastructure gap that traditional investment has failed to close for decades.
Turkey found a way to monetize that gap with engineering.
$BTC 2026 Bull Run Outlook
Feb → Bear trap
Mar → Breakout
Apr → Altseason
May → New ATH near $215K
Jun → Bull trap
Jul → Liquidation cascade
Aug → Bear market begins
I’ve called major market tops and bottoms for over a decade. I warned about the October top — and I’ll do it again.
Follow now… or regret it later. 🚀
I think over the next 12 months there may be a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy UAE equities
The kind of setup where even if you go all in, you still feel underexposed.
This is roughly my plan :
Phase 1
Start slowly accumulating the more defensive, resilient names over the next 6 to 8 months:
- Salik
- Dewa
- Adnoc Gas + Drilling
- Fab
- Taqa
- Adib
Phase 2
Dubai is far more exposed than Abu dhabi to tourism, real estate, discretionary spending, and foreign sentiment. That means it will likely take longer to find a bottom
But it will also offer the best opportunities once the market fully prices the damage
- Emaar Properties + Development
- Emirates NBD
Probably is still too early, but you definitely want to bookmark this and pay attention.
If you have lived in UAE, you know for a fact that they will bounce back, is not a matter of “if” but only a matter of “when”
BITCOIN WEEKLY RSI IS OVERSOLD FOR THE FIFTH TIME IN HISTORY.
2019: oversold. Then 2,700% rally.
2020: oversold. Then 1,800% rally.
2022: oversold. Then 350% rally.
2026: oversold. Right now.
Hold $65K: wave 4 complete. Wave 5 to $140K begins. Lose it: oversold gets more oversold first.
Every previous signal paid.
This one is loading.
No one wants to believe this.
But we now have full bullish alignment for Alts.
And this is right at the time that pretty much 100% of people have declared them dead forever.
It is not a coincidence.
I understand alts have been a tricky and disappointing asset class for many...
But we must not let feeling get in the way of objective data.
This bullish alignment we have now confirmed has only happened three times before.
It is when the 1month RSI ticks up and RSI trend changes.
For deeper analysis, the 1M RSI has been bearish since May 2024, and it has now flipped bullish.
Each time these conditions have happened it has lead to an average of 430 days of OTHERS expansion.
I have marked it all very clearly for you on the chart.
This isn't hopium, this is high time frame, highly bullish and objective data, with a 100% track record.
Data > Feelings
Any time there was any asset class at the lows but changing trend...
There will be a huge amount of people calling it dead.
That is just the way it goes.
To be a successful investor you have to drown out that noise and find your own conviction against the crowd.
🇺🇸 THE ISM PMI SAYS THE NEXT BULL RUN IS ABOUT TO BEGIN
The ISM PMI printed above expectations at 52.4, so we're still in expansion.
The ISM PMI has front-run every Bitcoin bull run we've ever seen.
When this crosses 50, the business cycle typically begins.
This is exactly what has led people to believe in a four-year cycle.
The bull run can happen at any moment now.
Stay patient.
2022:
#Bitcoin setzt sein Top Q4 2021 (mit Euphorie), Bitcoin korrigiert um 52%, Bitcoin setzt seinen lokalen Boden VOR dem Russland Ukraine Konflikt
Bitcoin steigt während des Krieges um über 40%.
2026:
#Bitcoin setzt sein Top Q4 2025 (ohne Euphorie), Bitcoin korrigiert um 52%, Bitcoin setzt seinen lokalen Boden VOR dem Israel / Iran Konflikt
Bitcoin beginnt während des Krieges zu steigen.
Reposted und Liked gerne den Tweet, da sich viele fragen, wie das überhaupt sein kann.
Schaut euch gerne auch das Video an, es lohnt sich wirklich:
https://t.co/pUSQxlBTfZ
March rallies by Bitcoin in midterm years have been fairly short-lived.
In prior midterm years Bitcoin had tops that typically occur in the first week of March.
The one exception was 2022 where Bitcoin swept the early March high in late March.
2014 High: Mar 3rd
2018 High: Mar 5th
2022 High: Mar 2nd (Swept High Mar 28th)
2026 High: ???
Most business cycles of the past have ended shortly after the price of oil spiked.
Rising geopolitical conflict threatens to cause that once again.
If oil starts moving higher, it usually marks the beginning of the end of the business cycle.
🚨2026'da Yeni Narrative Tierlist Olabilir!
S Tier
• #Privacy → regülasyon arttıkça değerleniyor
• #ConsumerDeFi → #DeFi'yi insanlara indiren kazanır
A Tier
• #PredictionMarkets → #Polymarket etkisi net
• Reputation → sybil savaşında kilit rol
• #Stablecoins → sessiz ama en kritik yapı taşı
B Tier
• #RWAs → hype var, uygulama yavaş
• #PerpDEX → rekabet çok sert
• #L1/#L2 → kazanan az, kaybeden çok
• #AI → kriptoda ürün sorunu var
C Tier
• #ETFs → fiyatlar, alpha yok
• Robotics → daha çok VC oyuncağı
• #SocialFi → UX hâlâ kötü
D Tier
• #Memes → doğru zamanda girersen efsane
• #GameFi → oyuncu yok, token çok
A close below the 100w EMA (green line) has always sent Bitcoin to the 200w EMA. It has historically dumped to the 200w very quickly after a weekly close below the 100w.
Before the comments start.
1) Yes I know there are 6 days left before the weekly candle close.
2) Yes I know ETFs exist and this time is different.
3) Yes I know we topped before the halving and this time is different.
4) Yes I know Dec 1 started QT and you think that means QE.
You have to be prepared for this.
And I am posting this today as it is very important to ensure your head is in the right place.
Because I KNOW that if/when BTC retraces some of this move, the sentiment will instantly be horrendous again...
And you will all start making bad decisions.
It is VITAL that you have correct expectations when it comes to bottoms forming.
Otherwise, you will get totally chopped up.
We HOPE for the best... But prepare for the worst.
A lovely V shape reversal back to ATHs would be great for the bulls...
But even though I share certain things about that, I am still prepared for other scenarios.
It is more likely that we get a chop here whilst the price restructures and builds its base.
If you have more to deploy, you can DCA nicely on this chop.
If you don't, just get the possibility into your mind and do not rise and fall emotionally with the price.
It's SO important during these bottoming formations that you don't capitulate with time/chop.
Personally I believe the bottom is in now, but I do not believe that we will just giga send higher from here.
And I am prepared for that.
If we do though, I will be happy with that ofc.
Hope for the best
Prepare for the worst
Stay in the game.
You have no idea how bullish 2026 is going to be for your bags.
You just gotta get through this first.
This is the best visual representation of this cycle.
It's not the end of the bull market.
It's the end of the bear market for #Altcoins.
I keep saying that those current opportunities are massive financial opportunities that will only be granted one time in your lifetime. That's now.
The business cycle has always been the prime indicator for markets to go risk-on/risk-off and in this case, the periods have been changing over time.
As you can see in the visual, the low is created on #Altcoins when the business cycle is least favorable.
In previous cycles:
- Q2 2012
- Q1/2 2016
- Q1 2020
This resulted into massive bloodbaths on the altcoin markets, extensive losses, and also a #Bitcoin that's still moving beneath the ATH.
That wouldn't be different this time, except that the ETF has changed the entire market dynamics. It provided a new floor of #Bitcoin to be acting on, which is north of the previous ATH, most of the time actually at $100k+.
That's great, but that confuses the entire market.
That also means that we haven't seen the actual run upwards for Bitcoin as of yet, which means that we're still going to be seeing such a case.
It would also be a good case that, if this bear market is as extensive as it has been, it's very likely that the upcoming bull market will be significantly larger as well (more money required to move markets, also more time to be adjusting the business cycle etc).
In this case, I do believe that we're in a way longer cycle and that the classic Web 3 only 4-year cycle doesn't exist.
It's a tremendously different cycle and the opportunities are everywhere.
Everybody is just too stubborn to be going for it.
I can't make these visuals as beautiful as they are, so credits to @TechDev_52 for this one.