Rafaella Lipschitz

Geopolitical analyst @NewlinesInst; Researcher on organized crime and conflict; 🇺🇸&🇿🇦

[Caroline Rose @CarolineRose8]

In @TheSoufanCenter latest Intelligence Brief, I outline that the U.S.’ next foreign policy focus will be on #Cuba following the Iran war. Regardless of whether the U.S. intervenes, the downward spiral sparked by governmental mismanagement, economic pressure, and the threat of military intervention in Cuba may unravel its security landscape on its own, creating a different challenge that the Trump administration may not anticipate. https://t.co/s9FkAIM4G4

[Orion Policy Institute @OrionPolicyIns]

Last day to sign up for our Global Security Threats 2026 certificate seminar program tomorrow, June 3!

The seminar will feature leading experts for the following sessions:
• Iran War, Regional Instability, and Terrorism (10 am - 10:50 am)
• Transnational Crime-Terror Nexus in the Western Hemisphere (11 am - 11:50 am)
• The Evolving Terrorism Threat in Africa: The Sahel and Beyond (12 pm - 12:50 pm)
• Drones, Autonomy, and the Changing Landscape of Conflict and Homeland Security (1 pm - 1:50 pm)
• The Rise of AI-Empowered Strategic Cyber Attacks (2 pm - 2:50 pm)

Learn more and register:
https://t.co/QQCCj5hATF

#GlobalSecurity #CyberSecurity #Counterterrorism #StrategicStudies #Geopolitics #TransnationalCrime #ArtificialIntelligence #EmergingThreats #Seminar

[Caroline Rose @CarolineRose8]

A fascinating dynamic is unfolding as the US eyes #Cuba as its next foreign policy venture.

We've seen a notable shift in U.S. officials' rhetoric on Cuba, pivoting from engagement and incentivizing economic reforms to thinly-veiled threats of American intervention against #Havana. But we have also seen the #Trump administration publicly tout the presence of its intelligence services as a pressure tactic, something also replicated in #Mexico.

I write about this dynamic in @TheSoufanCenter's latest intelligence briefing.

https://t.co/s9FkAIMCvC

[David Mansfield @mansfieldintinc]

1. It’s not just the scale of poppy cultivation in this video it’s the fact that it’s also monocropped. We didn’t even see this in such volume when poppy was at its peak in Afghanistan during the Afghan Republic.

[Rafaella Lipschitz @rlipschitz01]

How can we accurately measure the sizes of illicit economies? On the latest episode of Crime Beat Conversations, I spoke with @HenryZiemer about the problems we often encounter when trying to measure illicit market sizes, and what better metrics might look like https://t.co/ezLJWgEONk

[Orion Policy Institute @OrionPolicyIns]

Less than a week left for our Global Security Threats 2026 virtual intensive certificate seminar program.

The seminar will feature experts from academia, policy, defense, and research institutions discussing today’s rapidly changing security landscape.

📅June 3, 2026
🕘9:45 am - 3:00 pm (EST)
📍Virtual

Sessions:
• Iran War, Regional Instability, and Terrorism by @Dr_SaraHarmouch of @H9Defense, @CarolineRose8 of @TheSoufanCenter and @OrionPolicyIns, and moderator @docsozeren of @AU_SPA and @OrionPolicyIns.
• The Transnational Crime–Terror Nexus in the Western Hemisphere by @DucharmeJackie of @OrionPolicyIns, @rojasrjuand of @OrionPolicyIns, and moderator @rlipschitz01 of the @NewlinesInst and @OrionPolicyIns.
• The Evolving Terrorism Threat in Africa: The Sahel and Beyond by @BokoWatch of @OrionPolicyIns, @warnjason, and moderator @daisy_muibu of @AfricaACSS
• Drones, Autonomy, and the Changing Landscape of Conflict and Homeland Security by @LARSONPARK66374, Kerry Chavez of @IrregWarfare, and moderator @Suat_Cubukcu of @TowsonU and @OrionPolicyIns.
• The Rise of AI-Empowered Strategic Cyber Attacks by @kurtisminder of @OrionPolicyIns, Matt Saglam of @socradar, and moderator @ism_onat of @univofscranton and @OrionPolicyIns.

Register here: https://t.co/QQCCj5h347

#GlobalSecurity #CyberSecurity #Counterterrorism #Geopolitics #TransnationalCrime #ArtificialIntelligence #EmergingThreats

[Ioan Grillo @ioangrillo]

Cartels to their operatives - "Don't Mess With The World Cup"

Cartels in Jalisco + Monterrey area order operatives not to mess with tourists, football teams + FIFA officials during World Cup in Mexico, security officials and cartel operatives say

Read↓
https://t.co/KZYp6UYMlQ

[Ali Bradley @AliBradleyTV]

ICYMI: General Dagvin Anderson, commander of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) ties Mexican cartels to drug trafficking out of Africa saying Mexican cartel members were present at 11 of 12 labs they interdicted.

He added that the cartels are linked to the biggest cocaine seizure in history worth roughly $1B — Adding that the drugs are bound for the Middle East, Europe and the U.S. through the northern border.

[All Source News @All_Source_News]

The capture of el Jardinero is a massive loss for CJNG, especially after the killing of El Mencho in February. El Jardinero was an undisputed top leader of CJNG who was even considered to be a contender to lead CJNG after El Mencho’s death. His organization was extremely powerful in Nayarit, parts of Jalisco and Sinaloa (he is suspected of being a key conduit for CJNG alliance with Los Chapitos).

Under him, a new leader was rising within the ranks of his faction, a commander known as Serio. It will be interesting to see if Serio might take over Jardineros faction overall.

Regardless, significant loss for CJNG.

[Omar H Garcia Harfuch @OHarfuch]

En una operación planeada, desarrollada y ejecutada por la Secretaría de Marina @SEMAR_mx , a través de sus Fuerzas Especiales, fue detenido en Nayarit Audias Flores Silva, alias “El Jardinero”.

Cuenta con orden de aprehensión en México y también es requerido por autoridades de Estados Unidos, con fines de extradición. Por su captura, el gobierno estadounidense ofrecía una recompensa de 5 millones de dólares.

Se continuará informando.

Nuestro reconocimiento a las mujeres y hombres de @SEMAR_mx por su valentía, disciplina y compromiso en esta operación.

[New Lines Institute @NewlinesInst]

🎥 [#Video] In the latest episode of Crime Beat Conversations with @rlipschitz01, @rousselle_adam explains how a shadow financial architecture connects Mexican cartels to Chinese financial systems.

Watch the full podcast here: https://t.co/AYAGoHuX5o

[Rafaella Lipschitz @rlipschitz01]

In a new episode of Crime Beat Conversations, I spoke with @rousselle_adam about how Chinese money laundering networks and capital flight are funding cartel networks in the Americas. Watch the full episode here: https://t.co/sfIqMPP0Iq

[New Lines Institute @NewlinesInst]

✍️ [#FreshVoices] @HenryRoger34691 analyzes Mexican cartels’ greatest non-narcotic income stream: illicit fuel.

He delves into the trade's systemic impact, the centrality of Tamaulipas, and the role of private U.S. actors.

Read it here ⤵️
https://t.co/oGJdITbF80

[El Huaso @HuasoBB]

This may be the first U.S. gun shop owner charged with “material support to terrorism” for arming Mexican organized crime groups after the 2025 FTO designation of certain groups.

https://t.co/R45s7Tw84j

[Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera @GCorreaCabrera]

Organized crime. Militarized responses. Evolving security paradigms.

Join us at @ScharSchool for the inaugural CONTRA conference:
From Cartels to Combatants
📅 March 23

🔗 Registration:
https://t.co/RjLleXfPb9

[Caroline Rose @CarolineRose8]

The first panel, hosted by @rlipschitz01, will focus on cartel networks in #LatinAmerica and their interaction with regional geopolitics, necessitating new demands for U.S. policy. The panel will spotlight key experts Stefano Ritondale (@artoriastech), James Bosworth, @GCorreaCabrera, and @WillGFreeman.

https://t.co/x6XC78b3Oc

[Caroline Rose @CarolineRose8]

TOMORROW: we launch the @NewLinesInst's Mafiacracies Project, a deep dive into relationships between criminal networks and state/non-state governance.

As part of the launch, we’ll be hosting two panels on cartels in #LatinAmerica and #Russia's grayzone criminality on Thursday, March 18, from 10 AM - 1:15 PM EST. An event you won't want to miss if you are following criminality, security, and political systems.

RSVP for the event here: https://t.co/x6XC78b3Oc

[Rafaella Lipschitz @rlipschitz01]

After calling organized crime the most “immediate threat” to South Africa, #Ramaphosa plans to deploy SANDF in several provinces to fight gang violence. Soldiers have already been deployed in and around #Johannesburg to take on illegal gold mining, and more are expected to be deployed in the #CapeFlats in Cape Town to fight rampant gang violence. While this might help ease some violence in the short-term, it is far from a long-term solution, especially in places like the Cape Flats where the root causes for gang recruitment are not addressed. Ramaphosa’s acknowledgement of the scale of organized crime in South Africa is important, especially as the #MadlangaCommission continues to grip the country. But reducing criminality in SA comes down to closing wealth inequality gaps, not deploying the army and building walls around the Cape Flats to further entrench that inequality.

[Caroline Rose @CarolineRose8]

With the launch of the Mafiacracies Project, @NewLinesInst will be hosting a series of panels exploring the thin line between criminality and governance in fragile states across the globe. Moderated by @rlipschitz01 and @Robert_Kremzner, the panels will bring together leading experts with cutting-edge insight. Join us at 10AM on Wednesday, March 18.

Register for the launch here: https://t.co/a06VyfgEJM

[New Lines Institute @NewlinesInst]

[#Event] New Lines’ Crime-Conflict team is launching the Mafiacracies Project, examining how state & nonstate criminal behavior shapes governance, conflict, and security worldwide.

🗓 Mar 18 | 10 AM EST | Online

Two expert panels:
• Organized Crime & Governance in Latin America
• Russian Gray Zone Criminality in Europe & beyond

Register: https://t.co/Gxw1gTvVkp