The college enrollment cliff is no longer a forecast. It is happening right now, and the damage is showing up everywhere:
Clemson is $1.5 billion in debt. Syracuse just eliminated 93 academic programs, 55 of which had zero students enrolled. UNC-Chapel Hill is cutting $89 million over three years. Duke let 600 employees go in a $350 million budget reduction. Indiana's higher education commission voted to eliminate or merge 580 degree programs across all public universities. The University of Vermont is projecting a 15% drop in its freshman class. Vermont alone has had five college closures in the last three years.
These are not small schools nobody has heard of. These are flagship state universities and elite private institutions.
The projections are brutal. High school graduates peaked at roughly 3.9 million in 2025 and will now decline steadily through 2041. A 15% drop in college-age students is expected by 2029. A worst-case scenario from a December 2024 study projects up to 80 additional college closures per year through 2029. Since 2020, more than 48 public and private colleges have already shut down.
US births peaked at 4.3 million in 2007. The birth rate dropped 4% between 2007 and 2009 and never recovered. 2026 is 18 years later. The baby bust generation just hit college age, and there are not enough of them to fill America's universities.
The American university system was built for a population that no longer exists. Tuition kept rising while the number of 18-year-olds started falling. The endowments of Harvard and Stanford will be fine. Everyone else is fighting over a shrinking pie with a cost structure designed for a world where 4.3 million babies were born every year.
That world ended in 2007. The bill just came due.
Big news from UNC SCiLL! We're thrilled to welcome 7 impressive full-time faculty members to campus next year — plus 2 visiting research professors!
🧵 Meet the newest faculty members joining our community:
Jed Atkins, director of @Duke’s Civil Discourse Project, has been named the inaugural dean of @UNCCollege's School of Civic Life and Leadership, effective Mar. 28.
He will also hold the Taylor Grandy Distinguished Professorship on the Philosophy of Living.
https://t.co/8ULaas8R3l
We support Summer Learning Choice for NC Families because "there is nothing more essential than our kids, their education, and their future....This is an opportunity to help single moms who feel helpless and are watching their kids fall behind." https://t.co/ELulDn4oTy #ncpol
Cooper shuts down economy. Schools close, kids forced to learn online. Parents trying to wfh on www. People scared to leave their house, use telehealth for healthcare needs. #NCGA allocates $30M for broadband access.
Cooper takes the money. Won't say why.
https://t.co/uzQkLgu0MT
Congratulations to our next Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, Justice @PaulMNewby!
Up and down the ballot in 2020 North Carolina voters issued a mandate for responsible Republican leadership that respects the constitution and rule of law. #NCPOL
What do last weeks results mean for ending gerrymandering in NC? Short answer: nothing good. The Repubs still control both houses and even though plenty of R's want to end gerrymandering, Senate Leader Berger will most likely not let it happen. Bottom line is we lost this time.
Congratulations to @ThomTillis! I know he’ll work hard for #NC. Look forward to continuing our partnership in Washington to help us through the pandemic & unleash our economy. 🇺🇸 #ncpol
It's #NationalApprenticeshipWeek! Did you know the number of registered apprentices in North Carolina has more than doubled over the past four years? Take a look back at the @ApprenticeNC conference in March for more. #nced https://t.co/RDgR8mcXOI
Reminder: Maps Were Drawn by Democratic Mapmaker, Amended Only by Dem Legislators, and Passed with Majority-Dem Support
For second time in 10 years, Republicans won majorities under maps drawn by Democrats. #ncpol#ncga