Day 31 of Betting on Every World Cup Match ๐
๐ซ๐ท France vs. ๐ช๐ธ Spain
โฝ๏ธ o8.5 shots on target (-135 BetMGM)
Record: 63-37 (+18.74 units)
- My first thought here is to take Spain to win or draw, they're unbeaten in 36 straight games, and 17 straight against top-20 opponents including B2B wins over France. And while I think this game should be priced a little closer, it's hard to fade France who looks like they're EASILY the best team in the world right now. Both teams dominate whoever they come up against, France have probably the best attack in the world right now scoring 2+ goals in 14 of their last 15 matches, and Spain maybe the best defense having conceded just once in six WC matches so far. This can either combine to Spain nullifying France and us seeing a very slow game, or both sides can put their foot on the gas and we'll see a back-and-forth affair. I'm leaning towards the latter, as their last matchup in the Nation's League semifinals was one of the most INSANE games you'll ever see, ending 5-4 with 40 shots and 17 on target.
- In Spain's last 14 games vs. top-20 opponents when Lamine Yamal plays, they've seen 9+ shots on target in 10/14, with 8+ in 12/14, and Spain putting 6+ on target themselves in 12/14. Similarly for France when Mbappe plays, they're over this line in 14 of the L19, with 8+ in 16/19 and 5+ themselves in 14/19. And the stature of the matchup should not make either team hold back, as 7/8 World Cup games from the quarterfinals on since Qatar (excluding when Morocco plays) have seen 9+ shots on target. Spain have 6+ SOT in 18 of their L21 matches, France have 5+ SOT in 18 of their L20 matches, I expect some top-tier attacking football and lots of chances in what's the best matchup on paper all tournament.