Ron Pol, PhD (Away)

Outcomes science, meet profoundly ineffective #AML movement. and (in hiatus)

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

AML/CFT, KYC, profoundly ineffective:
Summary
https://t.co/Zst7vw2Ztx
AML ineffective
1 https://t.co/o6UbJYtinX
2 https://t.co/go40mz21Ca
AML "effectiveness" ratings fail
3 https://t.co/YNdzeKRdsD
#AML fails to use own data
4 https://t.co/3bvKkq9MWa
5 https://t.co/XMBc0WGF27

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@rizzn @mathMakesArt "Educate lawyers"? As a former litigator, legal manager, law association leader, it was fascinating to see the legal profession move from staunchly opposed to AML to lawyers as loudest cheerleader, citing principle at each end of travel, with nary a sign of cognitive dissonance.

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@Vladcostea @FTL_Bonnie @rizzn @TheDesertLynx @lex_node @mickjayofficial @ninuxch @LewellenMichael Please return your bingo card, with respect :-)

My beliefs, evidence-based, do not in fact match the assumption declared (again, respectfully), as I have replied above.

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@FTL_Bonnie @rizzn @TheDesertLynx @Vladcostea @lex_node @mickjayofficial @ninuxch @LewellenMichael Second, the concept of banks surveilling people, while superficially attractive, is deeply flawed; both conceptually and empirically - on effectiveness, efficiency and cost - at least if the idea is to stop crime (which was not how the system was designed anyway).

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@FTL_Bonnie @rizzn @TheDesertLynx @Vladcostea @lex_node @mickjayofficial @ninuxch @LewellenMichael "He" be me? Nope. It's not that binary. Effectiveness (against crime) does not suggest we need AML regulations at all. (Which, btw, despite an entrenched belief system, were not designed to stop crime).

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@TheDesertLynx @rizzn @Vladcostea @lex_node @mickjayofficial @ninuxch @FTL_Bonnie @LewellenMichael Did one for @stephanlivera after the 2020 article. Currently mostly off grid, maybe resurface if anyone interested if/when/as the new piece comes out? Also finalizing a book (which can be a bit more direct than academic articles)

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@rizzn @Dashpay fyi, update forthcoming, when/if it spits out of the peer review process, as here just now https://t.co/Nk3ZL4IKpI

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@AminCad Thanks for asking. Still around, just mostly offline. I have since updated my 2020 paper (below), on effectiveness, efficiency, and costs, using new empirical evidence. It's currently going through peer review.
https://t.co/o6UbJYcflX

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@lightcoin @L0laL33tz fyi, update forthcoming, when/if it spits out of the peer review process, as here just now https://t.co/Nk3ZL4IKpI

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@AminCad Thanks for asking. Still around, just mostly offline. I have since updated my 2020 paper (below), on effectiveness, efficiency, and costs, using new empirical evidence. It's currently going through peer review.
https://t.co/o6UbJYcflX

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@CR1337 Here's the original 2020 article directly if it helps: https://t.co/o6UbJYcflX

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@CR1337 Well, actually... I have updated that 2020 paper - on effectiveness, efficiency & cost - and refined the "less than 0.1% impact on criminal finances" finding with new empirical evidence. It is currently going through the peer review process.

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@AminCad Thanks for asking. Still around, just mostly offline. I have since updated my 2020 paper (below), on effectiveness, efficiency, and costs, using new empirical evidence. It's currently going through peer review.
https://t.co/o6UbJYcflX

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@DSBatten @Greenpeace Commonplace. Assertions repeated so often folks no longer think about it critically, it 'must' be true. Definition of propaganda. Sadly, when organizations like Greenpeace, Amnesty etc fall into it, it reinforces lazy, unproven elements of AML industry narrative

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@DSBatten @Greenpeace Greenpeace also fell for the false AML/KYC orthodoxy narrative...

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@thecryptoc0up1e @Greenpeace Sadly, @Greenpeace also fell for the “threat to the financial system” & “criminals use it” scare tactic narrative:

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@lightcoin @L0laL33tz & I'm currently working through publishing an update/extension of that "years ago" research. Including refining the "less than 0.1 percent impact on criminal finances" finding in #1 (2020) from this list: https://t.co/86kVkeJYsf

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

AML/CFT, KYC, profoundly ineffective:
Summary
https://t.co/Zst7vw2Ztx
AML ineffective
1 https://t.co/o6UbJYtinX
2 https://t.co/go40mz21Ca
AML "effectiveness" ratings fail
3 https://t.co/YNdzeKRdsD
#AML fails to use own data
4 https://t.co/3bvKkq9MWa
5 https://t.co/XMBc0WGF27

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@rizzn @Dashpay Thanks Mark, haha, not so much 'active' as pondering a juncture ahead; whether to actively re-engage, with a few potential projects in sight, or just give up and go fishing in New Zealand's wilderness!

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@Dashpay As author of those papers, I hope soon to publish extended results using newfound empirical data. This refines the "below 0.1 percent impact on criminal finances" finding in the 2020 paper (#1 in that list) and substantially improves the (conservative) 0.05% estimate. @rizzn

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@satsdisco @alinush @kyletorpey Like other fake militaristic "wars" (drugs, terror), policy failure of the "war" on ML struggles to pierce a dominant narrative driving a vast industry. Even getting the next scientific journal article out, which could help many others advance things, is a struggle!

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@satsdisco @alinush @satsdisco your post was picked up by @kyletorpey in an interesting piece in Gizmodo, here: https://t.co/EhtFfCePa0

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@satsdisco As author of the paper you mention (thx @alinush for posting it in reply), I now have data enabling that finding to be further refined, ie how much "less than 0.1%", plus other findings. Not yet published (the peer review journal process is a whole other kettle of fish).

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@T_Nenninger Update, @T_Nenninger, here's my brief reply to the recent US Treasury "Request for Comment on Innovative Methods to Detect Illicit Activity Involving Digital Assets": https://t.co/CB8OXQEBTh

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@T_Nenninger The AML system was not designed to fight ML or crime. That may sound controversial, but it ignored ordinary principles of policy design and policy effectiveness; and still does.

[Ron Pol, PhD (Away) @ronaldpol]

@jamalzyat @Cultuurfilosoof With new empirical evidence, I've since been able to get more specific on that "below 0.1% impact" on criminal finances finding. As well as updated effectiveness findings, updated costs & efficiency elements too. Submitted to peer-reviewed journal, wending through the process...