Ronja Lutz

Futures researcher @2b_AHEAD. Also philosopher and master of disaster.

[Goose Goss Man 🔍🇺🇦 @goose0009]

@alexeyguzey I asked my 4 1/2 year old to draw a bicycle and he just randomly threw a couple of “bicycle” elements together without any true understanding or a model of how they work.
Ridiculous to claim that he is anywhere close to rivaling and replacing true adults.

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

@laurenkunze @brianchristian Amazing, I'm glad you enjoyed the conversation! Looking forward to your thoughts on the book :D

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

Very grateful that I got a chance for a 1-1 interview after the talk - so exciting to hear more about what's happening in the #AI space right now.

[Lauren Kunze @laurenkunze]

Had a great time speaking @BMW World in Munich last month about what the #Bot Economy will look like in 2032, complete with conversational #AI #Avatars

Thanks for having me @2b_AHEAD

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

@tenthkrige @gcuth I'm confused about how this would be the case.

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

@austinkleon and his book "Show Your Work" inspired me to upload my first music video ever! Converted me to showing unfinished work and using online communities for creative exchange :D

https://t.co/mHPbhwK0x5

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

@PeterSinger It does seem important to include the impact of AI on animals. I'd hope that the potential benefits would outweigh the harms - like finding alternatives to factory farming instead of monitoring animals more efficiently. Hopefully, this is a nudge in the right direction.

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

@PeterSinger Thanks for laying out the structure of the argument so clearly in your paper! I wish more academics would do that.

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

@stephenclare_ But nooo, the word is "agenty". As in "be an agenty duck". Pwfah, how dare they make up jargon words in alternative to jargon someone else has made up!

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

AI? AGI?... will be fine!
(the below thread is actually good - but it's scary that we don't seem to have a clue what's happening)

[Benjamin Todd @ben_j_todd]

The metaculus forecasting community seems to think unaligned superintelligence is coming soon...

...but everything will be fine.

First, they forecast a 50% chance general AI arrives by 2038:
https://t.co/LLyPIXbiLx

/1

[Benjamin Todd @ben_j_todd]

Chance of having a solution to the control problem before AGI is only 7%:

https://t.co/nXDypQiweC

/3

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

Like this - Ajeya Cotra updated her AGI estimate from ~2050 to ~2040. https://t.co/6fib4IqTzA

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

Have AGI timelines become shorter?

[Richard Ngo @RichardMCNgo]

Thread of wacky predictions about the future. I'm trying more to raise interesting possibilities than to hone in on the most likely ones - but also don't write them off too easily either!

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

Example: "Having to use gender-inclusive language is bad - right!?" (Me, two weeks later: "There's a continuum between not reflecting word choices at all and fighting over words at the expense of fighting for other things, and we need to figure out when to do what?")

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

Pattern in my conversations.
Someone: "X is bad. You agree that Y is better, right?!".
Me: "Um, not sure."
Me (two weeks later): "Oh, this was _another_ instance where the _real_ question is 'We've got a continuum between X and Y and need to figure out the right balance'. Ugh!"

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

@Jsevillamol @StefanFSchubert But here is a work of the tireless résistance:

https://t.co/5YsQgEib4W

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

@Jsevillamol @StefanFSchubert "Several English-language publishing houses have considered undertaking a translation, but each has abandoned its plans due to the potential of litigation from the Tolkien estate, which has a history of strictly objecting to any derivative works, especially in English"

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

@Jsevillamol @StefanFSchubert #elvishpropaganda

[Ronja Lutz @ronjalutz]

@nikosbosse I'd probably just be burned as a witch if I showed up with any of this.