Sylvain

Forecaster, Product Manager @Metaculus, Rule-of-3 Respecter.

[Sylvain @tenthkrige]

If we restrict the aggregation to just those forecasters who had a prediction standing before 2021-04-01 (a year ago), the recent change is the same.
They were even more aggressive than people who joined last summer.
So it's not just people joining, it's also people updating.

[Metaculus @metaculus]

Midterms Forecast: House, 85% chance Democrats retake | Senate, 59% chance Republicans retain

Most likely outcome: split Congress; Rep Senate, Dem House (47%)

Continuously updated Metaculus Midterms Tracker: https://t.co/21wrbpFqMl

[Sylvain @tenthkrige]

@JgaltTweets Thanks, noted!

[Sylvain @tenthkrige]

We want to know !

[Metaculus @metaculus]

Big site updates to our question page & feed today! Let us know what you think?

https://t.co/Fe6HgVBNJv

[Metaculus @metaculus]

While headlines about hantavirus have sparked understandable fears of another pandemic, @Metaculus forecasters bring a measured, probabilistic perspective to the situation.

Our latest update, shared with the CDC as part of our Respiratory Disease Outlook series, examines current forecasts on hantavirus, measles, mpox, and New World screwworm. Quick 🧵

[Metaculus @metaculus]

1/ Our Labor Automation Tournament has $35k in prizes, including $5k for the best comments.

Before you dive in, we wanted to share what makes a strong comment in this case, as well as standout comments from Pro Forecasters. They're ineligible for the prize, so they're not who you're up against, but they're worth reading as case studies.

[Metaculus @metaculus]

On prediction markets, "there’s little incentive for sophisticated traders to push a 5‑cent YES contract down to, say, 2 cents, even if the 'true' probability is lower." We explain why in our latest article.

[Metaculus @metaculus]

The Wage Paradox: Overall US employment is forecast to fall 1.4% by 2035, while real hourly median wages are forecast to rise 5.8% over the same period, per the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub.

1/

[Metaculus @metaculus]

A new season of the Metaculus Cup means a new guest forecaster: this time, the community will face off against Dylan Matthews (@dylanmatt), longtime policy journalist with @voxdotcom| Future Perfect, and now philanthropy program officer.

The deal: if the community's aggregate forecast is more accurate than Dylan's predictions by season's end, the tournament prize pool grows. If Dylan wins, he walks away with bragging rights and a bonus.

How it works: every week a handful of new forecast questions pegged to current events open.

You can start forecasting on the first batch, covering:
- the verdict in Musk v. Altman
- the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage
- the 2026 Colombian presidential election
- whether another country will quit OPEC

We'll award prizes for both accuracy and insightful commentary. Winners also receive a handsome Metaculus-branded die. Win dice from all three seasons and unlock an even more handsome, just-as-branded die.

Link in the replies to learn more and compete. FIGHT

[Metaculus @metaculus]

Metaculus forecasters currently project that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal on September 13, 2026.

Do you think this is accurate? (Link to question in comments)

[Metaculus @metaculus]

We've launched the Epoch AI Robotics series, in collaboration with @EpochAIResearch! Building on Epoch’s prior work, this initiative examines the near-term deployment and capabilities of robotic systems across civilian, commercial, and military domains.

Read on for a sample question set from the series, & the link to participate.

[Metaculus @metaculus]

Flash poll: For our 2026 midterms tracker, which do you prefer? (Page will have hover-over details, conditional forecasts, etc.)

[Metaculus @metaculus]

A new @IMFNews report on AI's global economic implications cites Metaculus forecast data to show how expectations about artificial general intelligence timelines have dramatically compressed, with the median estimate now landing in the early 2030s.

(More below.)

[Metaculus @metaculus]

Ever wondered if there was a way you could leverage a privileged position to add to your bankroll? Wonder no more!

INTRODUCING: Metaculus’ Conflict-Driven Interest program.

To get started, simply attach a crypto wallet to your Metaculus account & bet big on the outcomes no one else knows about (yet). It’s the smartest way to extract money from bettors who didn’t put in the work to have your position at the decision-making table. 🤌

Learn more about CDI here: https://t.co/KKaNfm7bXO

[Metaculus @metaculus]

Q for scientists & researchers: what percentage of the most consequential research in your field is actually getting funded? Are funders identifying the areas where their support might do the most good? (Quick 🧵)

[Metaculus @metaculus]

Metaculus v Polymarket predicting the Iran attack -- @kikollaneras in @el_pais: https://t.co/RrFS0AK3lP

[Sylvain @tenthkrige]

Metaculus FutureEval: https://t.co/M340wiRfup

[Sylvain @tenthkrige]

Opus 4.5 (unsurprisingly) tops our new forecasting benchmark.
More recent models coming later, forecasting takes time!

[Metaculus @metaculus]

1/ AI forecasting doesn't beat top humans yet, but our research indicates models will match pro forecasters in June 2027.

We built FutureEval to track this: a live benchmark with human baselines and bot tournaments measuring AI forecasting against reality.

[Sylvain @tenthkrige]

@peterwildeford I do not like this.

[Metaculus @metaculus]

@_Mantic_AI Very, very impressive work. We’re watching Mantic’s progress closely, especially in our more rigorous AI Forecasting Benchmark. Next thresholds:

- beat Metaculus's own forecasting bot
- close the gap with Pros
- do it consistently

Best of luck.