Ron SE

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@ElijahWxOfPA Nuri 2014 had a 170kts forecast when it was already 155kts. Hagupit 2014 also had 170kts projection but when it was also already a C5.

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@IPTCWCDirector @Its_GiantsSZN 2006-esque late season would be very bad as well (but it is a very different setup than 2026). Who knows if a Xangsane/Cimaron/Chebi like storm will form, explosively intensified and hit PH. 1982 only had a C4 STY, 1997 a C4, 2015 had 1 C5, 2 C4s.

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@IPTCWCDirector @Its_GiantsSZN Well yes. I am also thinking about how the activity is very El Nino like but the intensity of the higher end storms are like from Nina seasons (but formed in far E of WPAC).
A 1987-esque season would be disastrous for PH (Betty and Nina).

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@IPTCWCDirector @Its_GiantsSZN To think they also made a very big epic fail during Rammasun 2014 (which is not even small at all). 165 km/h 935 mbars when an observation showed it is 905. I fear the worst case scenario may happen in the next -ENSO year with an Oct/Nov storm near Luzon.

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@Its_GiantsSZN @IPTCWCDirector I fear in the near future, another small pinhole-eyed storm will have a very low typhoon-level estimate from JMA, but worse is that the typhoon will be very near landfall. Imagine in the future JMA give 75kts for a storm impacting PH for example when in fact it is already 175kts.

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@IPTCWCDirector And potentially third sub-900 mbars storm before August. Sinlaku's observation in Saipan supports 880s peak. Bavi has 913.9 in Rota after some weakening. And now, Dolphin is explosively intensifying with a very small eye.

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@sophiashines3 @BackpirchCrew At landfall, it is officially the lowest recorded pressure (2nd worldwide behind Labor Day 1935). But there was a measurement of 878 mbars when Meranti passed over Itbayat, PH. In general sense including every typhoons in Pacific with or without landfall, it isnt among top 25.

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@Dondrumpf7 @NbergWX How about the dry air?

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@JiveTurkey56 @webberweather Maybe only you. It doesn't change the fact a very strong storm made landfall in Atlantic

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@Texansfan243 @AndyHazelton 2024 has a record-breaking start (Beryl). Also, 2024/5 are both La Niñas.

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@LaneSiegen45862 @RoseWX5 @BackpirchCrew Really?

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@JiveTurkey56 @webberweather Landfall in US? Nothing. But you didn't say about US or about a landfall at all. Jamaica experienced a 160kts landfall.

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@Northie_Stangl @AaronLoweWX @DylanFedericoWX @webberweather Its their worst hurricane since Fabian in 2003

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@JiveTurkey56 @webberweather Really? Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, and especially Melissa?

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@Northie_Stangl @AaronLoweWX @DylanFedericoWX @webberweather Gonzalo

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@FFinkral @MyRadarWX Does this look like an EF2 damage?

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@ShadowDragons77 @creator00100 Not always. Recent WPAC recon doesn't prove it at all.

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@JonnyTheWX @ContentWxGuy @EliThePitBull + Parma although I am unsure about it since the peak is too short.

[Ron SE @Ronse9698]

@JonnyTheWX @ContentWxGuy @EliThePitBull Well Bopha is unlikely the strongest of 2012. There is Sanba. I'd argue the start of new wave of strong WPAC typhoons is 2009 (although WPAC most likely had a C5 every year since 2000, except 2017). Nida, Megi, Muifa, and Sanba are most likely stronger than Bopha.