roommatemusing 🛡

Writer / producer @zcashmedia.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

12 REASONS WHY IT'S THE COLDEST CRYPTO WINTER EVER

Back in February I wrote a list of 10 reasons why this the worst crypto winter ever.

Well everything I cited then still holds, but now I have 2 more ways it's gotten worse:

From the newsletter https://t.co/25c7dc8ulW

[path.eth 🛡️ @Cryptopathic]

MSTR is the vehicle through which Bitcoin could be exited to the sleepwalking capital of institutional laggards with a half-understanding of what Bitcoin actually is. Saylor is a soon-to-be two-time fall guy, a professional useful idiot. The current valuation is based mostly on a cult con game that unlocked access to these passive flows. A decade long innovation freeze has killed any chance of Bitcoin ever acquiring the fee revenue it needs to stay afloat further along the emission curve. All it has is social pressure, a snowball of adoption that nearly rolled all the way into the welfare of government reserve purchases. Now that it has lost its momentum it needs to find some grounding in reality, but taking its number one spot for granted for so long has left it without a plan B.

[roommatemusing 🛡 @roommatemusing]

This is one reason I’ve leaned towards staying away from Polymarket. The rules can be (made) ambiguous even when you thought they were clear. And there’s clearly a lot of incentive to manipulate it and very little recourse.

[willo2 @willo2_Poly]

I was just scammed for $500K by Polymarket.

I am "willo2", the top holder of YES on "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st".

Here's what happened:

[roommatemusing 🛡 @roommatemusing]

It is honestly so interesting to watch people go from “yea, sure, have fun with that [Zcash]” to shilling it. Like, what didn’t you see before? Not enough other KOLs shilling it?

[Milk Road @MilkRoad]

Raoul Pal on his recent Zcash allocation:

"In the world of store-of-value there is only one - or there was only one, really."

"But now we've got another one which is a sub-section of that."

"Privacy, in the world, has value."

"I think people will understand that more, so therefore, it's a very easy trade. It's $BTC w/ privacy."

FT @RaoulGMI @KevinWSHPod @RealVision.

[roommatemusing 🛡 @roommatemusing]

Big price difference between Coinbase and kraken for Zcash. Last time this happened was the precipice to last fall’s breakout. Interesting.

[Oxford Union @OxfordUnion]

A statement from the President, Arwa Elrayess:

[roommatemusing 🛡 @roommatemusing]

Looking for recommendations for passive index funds that will sit out the SpaceX shenanigans while still tracking the major public US companies.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Imagine you spent 40 years doing the boring, responsible thing.

You opened a 401k at 23. You contributed every paycheck. You ignored the noise. You bought the index because Bogle told you to, because Buffett told you to, because every honest piece of financial advice for 30 years told you the index was the safest, most diversified, most rules-based way to own America.

The whole point was the rules.

The rules said: a company must trade for 12 months before joining the S&P 500. The rules said: it must show four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability. The rules existed because in 1999 the index quietly bought a lot of stocks at the top, and pensioners paid the bill.

After the dot-com crash, S&P tightened the rules. Nasdaq tightened the rules. FTSE Russell tightened the rules.

For 23 years, those rules held.

Then SpaceX filed for IPO.

And the rules changed.

The S&P 500 waived the profitability requirement. Nasdaq cut its trading-history window from 90 days to 15. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the major index funds will absorb between 19% and 24% of SpaceX's float within six months. That's over $30 trillion of passive 401k and retirement money, mechanically buying a single newly public company at IPO valuations, because the rules said they had to.

Except the rules used to say they didn't.

Here's the thought exercise:

If you spend 40 years building a system designed to protect ordinary savers from buying overpriced stocks, and then you waive the protections the moment a sufficiently large stock asks you to, what was the system actually protecting?

Most of investing is about understanding what's a rule and what's a guideline.

A rule binds the rule-maker.

A guideline binds the saver.

You're allowed to find out which is which only after the fact.

[Visa is doing marketing consults (see pinned!) @visakanv]

this review of Interstellar (2014) by @lauren_wilford is one of the best things I’ve read in a while

[roommatemusing 🛡 @roommatemusing]

Sure, news articles, delistings, AML rules are factors but when literally no one is recommending Zcash due to bad UX, that’s going to be the primary driver. It all changed once ppl were excited about the usability.

[roommatemusing 🛡 @roommatemusing]

Respect the response to the comment. But as someone following from the trenches, this video doesn’t really grasp the real reasons for the Zcash recovery. Doesn’t give weight to horrible UX during downtrend nor breakthrough PMF that was finally found.

[CryptoCharged @CryptoCharged]

$ZEC Was Not a Lucky Guess: The Full Rebuttal with Chart Evidence and 1,200 Days of Context

0:00 ZEC Rebuttal
1:37 Shielded Supply Data
3:43 ZEC Chart Events
10:08 1,200 Days to Buy Sub-$70 ZEC
10:47 Arthur Hayes Now Calling $10K ZEC

[Ramp Capital @RampCapitalLLC]

My favorite piece of financial lore is where the 2% inflation target originated from

[roommatemusing 🛡 @roommatemusing]

@KobeissiLetter Turns out the only thing worse than an anti-crypto admin was a pro-crypto admin.

[roommatemusing 🛡 @roommatemusing]

Bro launched a memecoin and gave the presidential stamp of approval that crypto is indeed a full-scale scam. Thank you sir!

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump releases a statement on crypto.

“Trump will never let crypto down,” he says.

[roommatemusing 🛡 @roommatemusing]

Ppl using AOC like the NRA used Obama 🤣.

“He’s going to take all our guns away and put good, God-fearing Christians into concentration camps. Pack it up, son.”

[Milk Road @MilkRoad]

Arthur Hayes: the thing that ends this bull market isn't a recession or a Fed pivot...

It's AOC.

"I think she is going to be the Democratic nominee for 2028. And I think investors are going to freak the f*ck out."

If she starts polling well, investors holding AI stocks at 100x revenue will have to start asking what a 50% AI tax will do to valuations.

"And once you start asking questions about the future like that - it's over."

FT @CryptoHayes @ilblackdragon @andyyy @robbieklages @therollupco.

[roommatemusing 🛡 @roommatemusing]

TIL

[All-bones Jones💀Skeleton Vtuber @AllbonesJones]

this is why they say "never look a gift horse in the mouth" btw, it was considered rude to check the age of a horse you were gifted

[critter @BecomingCritter]

how it started how it's going

[Rabia İclal Turan @iclalturan]

🚨US Treasury deletes UN expert Francesca Albanese from the specially designated nationals list after a federal judge blocked the Trump administration's sanctions against Albanese.

[roommatemusing 🛡 @roommatemusing]

Also, we don’t see the characters grow in that meaningful of a way, with some exception. Also, the whole smartest person in the world superpower never really pays off. Still lots of interesting themes and parallels to today tho.

[roommatemusing 🛡 @roommatemusing]

I’ve liked all seasons of The Boys, but for some reason the current season feels almost casual with lower stakes. So many barriers/taboos have been sequentially broken already that it doesn’t really feel like the current stakes are that meaningful in comparison.

[Culture Crave 🍿 @CultureCrave]

‘The Boys’ S5 has reached over 55M viewers so far 📺

Most-watched season in the series