It's time to break down exactly how this new #Bitcoin price model works...
As I said this is derived from my November 28th Cycles Theory.
This Theory calls tops and bottoms with a +/- 21 day accuracy and tells us what happens in each given year
Tops and bottoms come at these dates:
Tops = +/- 21 days from Nov 28th end of red year (red dots)
Bottoms = +/- 21 days from Nov 28th beginning of green year (green dots)
The model starts on the day of the first halving, Nov 28th 2012.
Cycles have formed in between each date of Nov 28th.
Let's get into what happens during each year based on my N28CT and this price model:
Green year (Accumulation) = Bitcoin forms a bottom at the beginning of the year +/- 28 days from Nov 28th. This is the year of the best cycle buying prices, and the best time to accumulate.
Price also moves towards the median price. (half of previous ATH). This is the first price that can be predicted labeled with blue lines, and their blue dot when price touches it.
Blue Year (Preparation for New ATHs) = Bitcoin spends time around the blue line (median), and then makes an advance towards new ATHs (small red line).
Red Year (New ATHs) = Price makes new ATHs during this year. Bitcoin follows the red trends outlined according to their diminishing pattern. This has been 70, 60, and 50 degrees in order for cycles so far. Implying the next would be 40 and 30.
Price makes its cycle top +/- 21 days from Nov 28th at the end of the year.
Orange Year (Bear Market) = After becoming over-valuated at the cycle high, Bitcoin moves to undervaluation. On this scale, this has always been at a 44-degree descent. We can then find the next cycle bottom price using this measurement, which will come at the end of the year.
Using this model give us these predictions:
Cycle Top Price 2025: 140k
Cycle Bottom Price 2026: $27,000
Median Price Next Cycle: 70k
Cycle Top Price 2029: 190k
Cycle Bottom Price 2030: 36k
Many people don't like to hear these prices, sorry. It's the results of the model. If the prices were higher they would show on the chart.
Each target is judged strictly according to the angle sequences.
I know you all have probably heard some pretty outlandish targets over the years, the Bitcoin community does a great job of that.
Reflect back and think how many there were last cycle! How did that pan out?
Same arguments, institutional adoption and scarcity. I heard that a lot when I was selling all my Bitcoin at 54k in April 2021.
Here's something else I'll tell you most people won't... don't go and blindly follow this model.
Always use data from many sources to come to conclusions! Setting price targets dooms you to fail. They are for speculation and possibilities, not financial decisions.
Remember how many people were lost looking for 100k last cycle top. What happened to them?
Here's a last question for you to think on, are you prepared if that happens again? I am!
#Bitcoin
2013 - 2017 vs 2020 - 2025.
If we ignore halving date for a moment, you will find striking parallels between these two cycles.
Patterns repeat because human psychology doesn't change.
#Bitcoin Repeating Itself! 🚀💥
Depending on the cycle, the Gaussian Channel flipped green 🟢 after a certain amount of weeks:
- 58 weeks in 2015/2016
- 39 weeks in 2018/2019
- And finally 61 weeks in 2022/2023. This cycle was the longest to flip it green. The best is yet to come.🫡
ATH before the halving, why?
$BTC Supply is already set for an ATH. With sufficient demand increase, that is where price is going.
Halving narrative has become super popularised way more so than it was in 2019. It is now being talked about on CNBC that the halving starts bull markets.
My guess is that the halving narrative will now be used to manipulate people.
DXY is in a macro downtrend, naturally bullish for risk assets.
Equities have begun a strong uptrend towards ATH's, the correlation throughout Bitcoin's history to equities is super clear.
New ETF narratives emerging which I think will be used to stop people from selling the next top. ("The institutions are really here this time, super cycle!" etc).
FED are finishing hiking apart from some goof hikes like last month, disinflation is cemented and this is a tailwind for risk assets (BTC).
Technical setup is very bullish across the board, most bulls agree on that but where they differ is whether they actually believe that it's even possible for Bitcoin to go to ATH's before the halving event.
No patience....
#Bitcoin bears and recession callers are relentless just below yearly highs... astounding!
I see price going sideways, and I've never been more bullish!
Just wait until we break into phase 2 on the 3 Week RSI...
Early bull market price action, period.
Don't forget these Macro #Bitcoin Falling Wedge BREAKOUTs. $BTC is now moving in the curved Ascending channel and will hit ATH in the end of the channel.
#BTC#Crypto
Investors Perspective in Crypto Markets Follows History
I’ve seen many people suggesting that we’ll see Bitcoin drop to $12,000 and altcoins to have another capitulation. I don’t think we’ll have that and in this post I’ll explain why. 👇
Altcoin investors are slowly losing faith in the markets, as the markets are still not moving at all. As a matter of fact, the markets have been trending downwards since May 2021 for most altcoins, through which the bear market has already lasted for more than two years.
The longest existing bear market for cryptocurrencies.
That’s not strange. In 2022, a lot of attacks took place within the blockchain ecosystem, through which governments are stepping in with a regulatory framework where governments want to protect investors. Understandable, but it’s putting a threat on the survival of the entire crypto ecosystem. SEC suing Binance, DoJ investigating Binance, while on the other hand TradFi jumps in through ETF proposals and even an exchange of their own, EDX.
What does that tell us? To me, some confirmations are clearly provided. First of all, sentiment on social media is derived from past history. Most vocal accounts are people who have endured their first bear cycle and have stepped into the markets during 2021. For them, slowly losing their money feels extremely painful and they’ll only expect further continuation of their portfolio value. Why? Well, they’ve solely experienced that, and people predict their future based on historical data.
It’s comparable to the real estate markets. If the real estate markets have been going up for forty years straight, people will tell you on the streets and at birthdays that it’s a wise decision to buy your own property. Will history repeat itself in that case? Well, it doesn’t have to. Every moment in time provides a new trade or investment opportunity including specific risks and rewards. If real estate has been going up straight for forty years in a row, it doesn’t mean that it will continue to do so.
The same principle applies to crypto and altcoins. Most of them have been trending downwards for 18-24 months straight. Bitcoin pairs are on cycle lows, sentiment is on the ground, but that doesn’t mean that we’ll need to continue moving downwards from here. Bitcoin’s price is slowly crawling upwards from Bitcoin at $15K, after a period of severe attacks on the markets.
Price capitulation, referring to the Wall St. Cheat Sheet, took place in May 2022, as Luna collapsed. Since then, Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating between $15-25K for a year straight, resulting in the accumulation of a lifetime. Yet, Binance is getting sued a month ago and within days, Blackrock, Valkyrie, Invesco and more apply for a Bitcoin ETF.
Those big institutions have used the period prior to accumulating their positions. Once a news item comes out, they’re not going to make their move after, they’ve made their move prior already. What if FTX was taken down by those institutions as they want to get their market share?
All-in all, we’re in the second stage of capitulation, which is time. This is the boring stage of the cycle, where you might feel like nothing is happening in the markets at all and you should move towards other markets rather than crypto.
I can tell you, be patient, enjoy the fact that you’re still in the markets, accumulate your positions and make sure to understand the Wall St. Cheat sheet. The big institutions are jumping in, and the wisest thing you can do is to follow them.
After the Depression comes Disbelief and that can only start with people believing the markets to have more lows to come, just like the markets expected Bitcoin to hit $2K in 2019.
If you do enjoy these long reads, please like & retweet!
#Bitcoin W3 Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has signaled the third historical Green cross.
In the first two Green Crosses, $BTC performed extremely outstanding. We expect $BTC will have massive moves in the near future.
#BTC#Crypto
#Bitcoin Resilience 🧘♂️
Each cycle almost same news with different actors. Exchange collapses, meme coins, platforms hacks, #crypto bans followed by crypto is the future, a new wave of newbies with the same psychology as the previous one, same whales game...
Lucky for us #Bitcoin remains the same as well. An indomitable bull. 🐂👑
#BTC Secular Bull Market
Visions of a new super cycle ignited by the upcoming halving/potential ETF approvals will be the most powerful/consensus narrative the secular bull market has ever seen which in hindsight may also mark its conclusion